| From: Elroy | 5/31/2019 10:47:40 PM | | | | | | SIMO is working even on Saturday!
TAIPEI, Taiwan and MILPITAS, Calif., May 31, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Silicon Motion Technology Corporation ( SIMO) ("Silicon Motion"), a global leader in NAND flash controllers for solid state storage devices, today announced that it has completed the sale of FCI, its Mobile Communications product line, to Dialog Semiconductor Plc. |
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| To: Elroy who wrote (2056) | 6/2/2019 11:27:58 PM | | From: Elroy | | | | Tidbits from the Cowen conference:
Color for individual segments for SIMO
SSD controllers - 55% of total continuing sales in Q1, should grow 25% in Q2, and do well going forward. Do not have procurement forecasts from customers for H2.
eMMC/UFS - Big step down in Q1, flat in Q2, and in the second half of 2019 based on the pipeline of design wins growth potential seems good, and it's possible to be flat in 2019 for the full year compared to 2018. For this also, they don't have H2 orders.
SSD solutions - Big step down in Q1, and now waiting for open channel to go into production with 2 Chinese hyperscale customers in H2 2019.
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Module makers are becoming more willing to buy NAND in Q2 because prices have stabilized somewhat, and the flash makers are giving them more advantageous terms of supply. Flash makers all have excess inventory, and more supply will come on line in H2 as 96 layer and QLC continue to come online. As a result, forecasts for H2 are uncertain across the board. No one knows if demand will return strongly, or NAND prices will again plunge lower. Without that knowledge no one is planning far out.
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What's the total available market for the China hyperscaler enterprise open channel segment?
We think it is customized for specifically what the customers need. Hyperscalers have unique requirements. They want SSDs that can be optimized to their unique data flow. Current enterprise high end SSDs cannot be configured and optimized. That's what Open Channel provides. And they can buy anything from the open channel controller to the entire open channel SSD module/driver software.
This will be the first live commercial deployment of Open Channel SSDs in the world. If it works as advertised, and it can be scaled into a data center and into the customer's storage infrastructure, then it could eventually represent the entirely of a hyperscalers SSD requirements.
No numerical answer on the TAM
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eMMC is a mature market and SIMO is managing it as such. Growth is in non-cell phone areas, smart TVs, etc. U UFS was as big as Hynix UFS last year, which is great since MU is relatively new to cell phone memory. UFS 2nd generation chip with MU will go into production in H2 2019. Further, Hynix is actively reducing its exposure to cell phone memory. Mobile as a percent of Hynix sales has gone from 80% to about 66% over the past few years. As Hynix walks away from low end NAND chips for cell phones, the Chinese module makers are entering and picking it up, and they were successful last year in low end non-smartphone segments, and this year they are pushing into smartphone OEMs. Many of these projects are expected to enter production in H2 2019. |
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| From: Elroy | 6/4/2019 5:22:43 AM | | | | | |
Chipmakers accelerate transition to 120/128-layer 3D NAND process
Siu Han, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES
Tuesday 4 June 2019
digitimes.com
Chipmakers have stepped up development of their respective 120/128-layer 3D NAND flash process technologies for cost competitiveness, and are gearing up to have the technology transitions kick off in 2020, according to industry sources.
Some major NAND flash chipmakers have delivered samples of their 128-layer chips targeting the first half of 2020 for volume production, said the sources. Continued falls in NAND flash prices coupled with rising uncertainty on the demand side have prompted the players to accelerate their technology advancements for cost reasons, the sources continued.
Falling NAND flash market prices are eroding chipmakers' profitability. Industry leader Samsung Electronics is no exception, as the vendor's NAND flash business has suffered from profit erosion reaching nearly break-even point, the sources noted.
Samsung and other major chipmakers have started cutting back their output since late 2018 aiming to stabilize NAND flash prices, but the efforts have hardly worked, as 64-layer 3D NAND process is already a mature technology and the 64-layer 3D NAND flash segment remains oversupplied, the sources said.
Some of the major NAND flash vendors have moved to accelerate their transitions to newer 120/128-layer 3D NAND process technology, the sources said. The move is to enhance their cost structure amid falling NAND flash market prices.
Meanwhile, chipmakers' yield rates for 90/96-layer 3D NAND process technology remain unstable which may bring more variables to the market and prices this year, according to the sources.
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| From: Elroy | 6/12/2019 5:33:21 AM | | | | | | SSD penetration rate expected to reach over 60% in 2019
digitimes.com
The global penetration rate of SSDs is expected to reach over 60% in 2019 as prices of NAND flash-based memory devices, particularly high-capacity models, have reached their sweet spots which will help drive up demand, according to industry sources.
Some SSD suppliers have seen more pull-in of orders from system vendors and end-market channel distributors recently, partly thanks to the promotion campaigns by e-commerce operators in China for the 618 Mid-year Shopping Festival, said the sources.
Also thanks to price reductions of NAND flash chips, the latest quotes for 512GB PCIe SSD and 512GB SATA SSD have dropped to US$47 and US$45, respectively.
In China, prices of the entry-level 512GB NVMe M.2 SSD devices have dropped to below CNY400 (US$57.8), the sources added.
Meanwhile, prices of 1TB SSD have fallen to around US$120 – a level which will encourage more vendors and consumers to replace their traditional HDD devices, according to Gerry Chen, president of Team Group.
Buoyed by increased demand, Team Group saw its revenues grow 27.78% on month and 12.31% on year to NT$667 million in May. Year-to-date revenues totaled NT$2.882 billion, increasing 5.47% from a year earlier.
Adata Technology also revealed that the ratio of its SSD revenues to total sales increased to 29.87% in May, the highest level since November 2016, and that May's SSD revenues also represented an increase of 40.62% from a year earlier. |
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| From: Elroy | 6/20/2019 2:19:23 AM | | | | | | Uncertainties in the Market Rise while a Bounce in NAND Flash Prices Remains Unlikely in 3Q, Says TrendForce
dramexchange.com
Uncertainties in the Market Rise while a Bounce in NAND Flash Prices Remains Unlikely in 3Q, Says TrendForce
According to the latest investigations by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, demand for smartphones and servers go below expected levels in 2019 as the US-China trade dispute heats up. Adding the CPU shortage, which continues to haunt notebook shipments, we may see the shipments of eMMC/UFSs, SSDs etc. failing to meet expectations for peak season 3Q, and cause contract prices to fall uncontrollably.
OEMs focused on de-stocking for various products with a rather weak re-stocking momentum in 1H19. The average NAND flash contract price has already fallen by nearly 20% QoQ for two quarters straight, and disappointed market expectations of a rebound which was supposed to result from price elasticity. TrendForce asserts that despite international tensions and other unfavorable factors, demand will still see improvements in 3Q looking forward, and the decline in contract prices may see a shrink. But a rebound in contract prices will prove veritably difficult thanks to the incomplete clearing of suppliers' inventories and an uneventful dip in shipments expected for 2H.
For eMMC/UFSs and SSDs, which form the market mainstream, smartphone and notebook PC vendors are expected to gain stocking momentum in 3Q, which, along with the large price adjustments in the first two quarters, will narrow the decline of contract prices from that of the previous two quarters to about 10% QoQ. For production processes, 64/72-layer 3D NAND processes still are mainstream for eMMC/UFSs, whose market mainly consists of mobile devices, whereas 92/96-layer 3D NAND processes find wider visibility in Client SSDs and help alleviate costs.
As for wafer contract prices seen in marketing channels, the prices settled on are currently closing in on cash costs, causing reluctance on the side of suppliers to drive down prices any further. Thus we see priority being strategically given to eMMC/UFS and SSD products in negotiations, with any action towards wafer contract prices withheld unless inventory pressure becomes unbearable. Some suppliers even hope to bring 256Gb products back up to profitable prices. TrendForce suggests that wafer prices are unlikely to make a comeback due to the weakening market, but the declines for the months to come are expected to remain within 5% QoQ. |
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| From: Elroy | 6/25/2019 6:40:07 AM | | | | | | Uncertainties in the Market Rise while a Bounce in NAND Flash Prices Remains Unlikely in 3Q, Says TrendForce
https://www.dramexchange.com/WeeklyResearch/Post/2/7330.html
According to the latest investigations by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, demand for smartphones and servers go below expected levels in 2019 as the US-China trade dispute heats up. Adding the CPU shortage, which continues to haunt notebook shipments, we may see the shipments of eMMC/UFSs, SSDs etc. failing to meet expectations for peak season 3Q, and cause contract prices to fall uncontrollably.
OEMs focused on de-stocking for various products with a rather weak re-stocking momentum in 1H19. The average NAND flash contract price has already fallen by nearly 20% QoQ for two quarters straight, and disappointed market expectations of a rebound which was supposed to result from price elasticity. TrendForce asserts that despite international tensions and other unfavorable factors, demand will still see improvements in 3Q looking forward, and the decline in contract prices may see a shrink. But a rebound in contract prices will prove veritably difficult thanks to the incomplete clearing of suppliers' inventories and an uneventful dip in shipments expected for 2H.
For eMMC/UFSs and SSDs, which form the market mainstream, smartphone and notebook PC vendors are expected to gain stocking momentum in 3Q, which, along with the large price adjustments in the first two quarters, will narrow the decline of contract prices from that of the previous two quarters to about 10% QoQ. For production processes, 64/72-layer 3D NAND processes still are mainstream for eMMC/UFSs, whose market mainly consists of mobile devices, whereas 92/96-layer 3D NAND processes find wider visibility in Client SSDs and help alleviate costs.
As for wafer contract prices seen in marketing channels, the prices settled on are currently closing in on cash costs, causing reluctance on the side of suppliers to drive down prices any further. Thus we see priority being strategically given to eMMC/UFS and SSD products in negotiations, with any action towards wafer contract prices withheld unless inventory pressure becomes unbearable. Some suppliers even hope to bring 256Gb products back up to profitable prices. TrendForce suggests that wafer prices are unlikely to make a comeback due to the weakening market, but the declines for the months to come are expected to remain within 5% QoQ. |
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| From: Elroy | 6/25/2019 8:08:51 PM | | | | | | Some tidbits from MU's conference call
investors.micron.com
Over the last few months, customer inventory improvements have progressed largely in line with our expectations in most end markets. NAND bit demand is also increasing in most markets as elasticity kicks in, in response to price declines over the last year.
Even as customer inventory levels of DRAM and NAND improve across most end markets, producer inventory levels are elevated.
We made further progress in strengthening our SSD portfolio with the launch of our 9300 data center NVMe SSDs for cloud and enterprise markets. We more than doubled revenue shipments of our new NVMe client SSD to large PC Micron Technology, Inc. Fiscal Q3 2019 Earnings Call Prepared Remarks © 2019 Micron Technology, Inc. 3 June 25, 2019 OEMs, and more customer qualifications are in progress. As a reminder, this new NVME drive is built with our own controller technology.
QLC SSD bit shipments increased approximately 75% sequentially, driven by growth of our consumer NVMe SSDs. This is probably SIMO's controller.
Within the data center market, cloud customers are turning the corner on inventories, and most are approaching normal inventory levels.
While we still believe the NAND industry supply is growing above demand this year, the market is showing signs of increased elasticity stemming from recent price declines. We are optimistic that the overall NAND market will start to stabilize in the second half of calendar 2019.
Overall NAND ASPs declined in the mid-teens percent range, while shipment quantities declined in the mid-single-digit percent range compared to the prior quarter. Adjusting for the Huawei impact, bit shipments came in better than our expectation due to stronger component sales.
Inventory ended the quarter at $4.9 billion, increasing from $4.4 billion at the end of FQ2.
In NAND, while the industry is benefitting from elasticity kicking in, our bit shipment growth in FQ4 will be limited due to the ongoing transition of our SSD portfolio. |
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| From: Elroy | 6/26/2019 12:01:59 AM | | | | | | some tidbits from the MU Q&A.
one of the big drivers of our increased inventory level is in NAND. And that is kind of by design for us. We are trying to build up some inventory going into 2020, fiscal 2020 for us because we are going to make this transition to replacement gate. Replacement gate doesn't drive very much bit growth for us in the first node in replacement gate. And so, we'll need to draw on our inventory in order to meet demand, and that's – I don't know the exact number, but that's a decent chunk of the [overage] in terms of days.
from a kind of an obsolescence perspective, we don't see really any risk with the inventory we're carrying.
We think it's very good inventory, it got a good cost position, very good demand with that inventory. So, unlikely to have any issue as it relates to obsolescence. The other of course area, you have to concern yourself with is the, any sort of lower cost to market issue with the inventory. I think you can kind of guess by the quality of our gross margins that we are not really in danger of having any write-down associated with lower cost to market. So, outside of these kind of one-off issues that we deal with from time to time, like we did with Huawei this quarter I don't really see a big issue with inventory in terms of write-downs or reserves. |
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| From: Elroy | 6/26/2019 3:10:53 AM | | | | | |
Micron to cut further NAND flash output
Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES, Taipei
Wednesday 26 June 2019
digitimes.com
Micron Technology has reiterated plans to idle up to 5% of DRAM wafer starts in 2019, but said the company will reduce its total NAND flash wafer starts by a larger 10% compared to the previously-planned 5% cut.
Micron saw its DRAM ASPs fall 20% sequentially in its third quarter of fiscal 2019, which ended May 30, while NAND flash ASPs were down in the mid-teens. The company saw its total revenues decline 18% sequentially and 39% on year to US$4.8 billion, which came in line with its guidance.
Micron saw its DRAM revenues decrease 19% on quarter and 45% from a year earlier to account for 64% of the total fiscal third-quarter revenues, while NAND revenues slipped 18% sequentially and 25% on year to account for 31% of revenues.
"Both DRAM and NAND revenue were negatively impacted by restriction on sales to Huawei, without which we would have reached the high end of our revenue guidance," said Micron CFO Dave Zinsner during a conference call on June 25.
Nevertheless, Micron disclosed that it has in the past two weeks resumed "lawfully" shipments for some Huawei orders that are not subject to the trade restrictions.
Micron posted net income of US$1.2 billion in its fiscal third-quarter 2019, with non-GAAP earnings per share reaching US$1.05 compared with US$3.15 in the year-ago quarter and US$1.71 in the prior quarter.
Looking into the fiscal fourth-quarter 2019, Micron expects revenues to be in the range of US$4.5 billion, plus or minus US$200 million, with gross margin ranging from 27.5% to 30.5% compared with 39% in the previous quarter. EPS for the quarter is estimated at US$0.45, plus or minus US$0.07.
In addition, Micron revised downward its capex target for fiscal 2019 to approximately US$9 billion from the US$10.5 billion set previously. And for fiscal 2020, the company expects capex to be "meaningfully lower" than the year-ago levels. "Further cuts in capex and bit supply will be required to return the industry to a healthy supply-demand balance," according to company CEO Sanjay Mehrotra.
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