| From: Wharf Rat | 3/6/2024 7:03:39 PM | | | | | | Solar hits a renewable energy milestone not seen since WWII (msn.com)
Story by Tik Root
• 14h
Solar accounted for most of the capacity the nation added to its electric grids last year. That feat marks the first time since World War II, when hydropower was booming, that a renewable power source has comprised more than half of the nation’s energy additions.
“It’s really monumental,” said Shawn Rumery, senior director of research at the Solar Energy Industries Association, or SEIA. The trade group announced the 2023 numbers in a report released today with analytics firm Wood MacKenzie. The 32.4 gigawatts that came online in the United States last year shattered the previous high of 23.6 gigawatts recorded in 2021 and accounted for 53 percent of new capacity. Natural gas was next in line at a distant 18 percent.
SEIA called 2023 the best year for renewables since the Second World War. Texas and California led a solar surge driven mostly by utility-scale installations, which jumped 77 percent year-over-year to 22.5 gigawatts. The residential and commercial sectors also reached new milestones. Only the relatively nascent community solar market missed its previous mark, though not by much, said Rumery. Overall he called it an “almost record setting year across the industry.”
One factor driving all that growth was an easing of supply chain constraints, which had slowed the delivery of solar panels. The problem arose in early 2022 after a small California manufacturer, Auxin Solar, filed a petition with the Department of Commerce accusing Chinese companies of circumventing U.S. tariffs by funneling panels through Southeast Asia. The government largely sided with Auxin, and new tariffs are set to take effect in June.
The dispute “really set back a lot of utility scale projects,” said Rumery. But, he explained, solar developers found workarounds that helped foster such strong 2023 growth, when projects slated to finish in 2022 finally wrapped up. While the boost from delayed installations will dissipate in coming years, and residential solar faces headwinds due to changes in net metering rules, experts generally expect renewable energy to keep on its torrent trajectory.
“It’s very likely to continue because solar and wind are now very well established,” said Rob Stoner, director of the MIT Energy Initiative. “Solar costs continue to fall far below where we ever thought they would.” |
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| From: Wharf Rat | 3/9/2024 2:28:50 PM | | | | | | 06 MARCH 2024 · 14:36
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How much energy could a community generate itself?
In a talk I addressed the topic ‘Greening Our Energy: How Soon?’, using recent research [1] to show that the UK could be self-sufficient in energy using wind and solar alone, along with significant levels of long-term energy storage to ensure energy security. The talk also discussed how electrification of much of our energy use reduces the overall energy demand, something that Mackay and others have talked about for years.
A question raised by an audience member was ‘How much energy could a community generate itself?’. This essay aims to answer this question, using my home town of Nailsworth as an example. As I said in the talk, the focus is on wind and solar.
When considering the total carbon emissions we are responsible for (so-called ‘consumption emissions’) studies [2] include literally everything. Including imported goods and produce. However, in terms of future UK generation, it is better to consider just the energy produced and consumed in the UK (the so-called ‘terrestrial emissions’).
We can narrow the scope further by considering those forms of energy consumption that are truly local and therefore best considered as being potentially met in whole or in part by community energy.
The two big ones are:
- electrified private cars and public transport (we’ll call these simply ‘transport’).
- heat pumps used to heat our homes and offices.
In terms of carbon emissions, these two represent 60% of Nailsworth’s terrestrial emissions, and 40% of our consumption emissions, so highly significant, however they are viewed [2].
According to Mackay [3], these would require energy consumption of 18 kWh and 12 kWh, respectively, per person per day in this electrified future world. The total including all energy needed would be 68 kWh/p.d and this is the figure used in the Oxford study referred to in my talk. So these two uses of energy would account for 44% of the total consumption of energy used.
The total of 30 kWh per person per day for transport and heating implies an average delivered power supply from community energy of 30/24 = 1.25 kW per person in Winter. In Summer we still need hot water but the great majority of heating is for space heating so we’d need about 12/24 = 0.5 kW per person in Summer for transport.
Nailsworth has a population of around 5,500, so let’s assume a future population of 6,000, which would imply a power supply required (for transport and heating) of 1.25 kW x 6,000 = 7,500 kW = 7.5MW in Winter, and 0.5 kW x 6,000 = 3,000 kW = 3MW in Summer.
Now the capacity factors for wind and solar in England [4] are on average, respectively, about 40% and 3% in winter and 20% and 20% in summer.
The winter solar generation depends a great deal on the orientation of the panels – much more so than in summer. I have taken a relatively pessimistic figure, assuming on average East/West orientation, which still provides some energy in Winter but I have based estimates assuming wind alone meets the required demand in winter.
So let’s start with winter where we will discount solar [5]. Applying the capacity factor of 40% (in this case, dividing by 0.4) the 7.5 MW delivered energy would require 7.5MW/0.4 = 18.75MW of wind energy capacity to meet it. Let’s round that up to 20MW.
For onshore wind turbines, we cannot use the largest ones available and are potentially restricted to say 5MW turbines. Only 4 of these would meet the power requirement of 20MW. Currently we have one 500kW wind turbine high above Nailsworth owned by Ecotricity. Having established this precedent, and given changing public attitudes, and both Stroud District Council and Nailsworth Town Council having declared a climate emergency, one would hope this could be implemented, especially if it is a community energy scheme.
Now, should we increase the capacity to deal with peaks in demand or lulls in wind? No, in my view. Community energy will be connected to the grid. When Nympsfield above Nailsworth is having a lull, other community sites around the country, and indeed large resources such as North Sea wind farms, will be able to take up the strain.
A national energy storage strategy would deal with more extreme lulls that cover most of the country, as discussed in the talk.
Moving now to Summer, the four wind turbines proposed would deliver (now multiplying the wind capacity by the summer capacity factor), 20MWx0.2 = 4MW, so we’d need solar to deliver the remaining requirement of 7.5-4 = 3.5MW. Using the capacity factor for solar in Summer (at 20%, twice as good as the average for the year, 10%), that gives us a required solar PV capacity of 3.5MW/0.2 = 17.5MW.
The average domestic solar PV installation in the UK has been 3.5kW, but with improved panels let’s round this to 4 kW. Assuming that the average home has 3 occupant, we anticipate 2,000 dwellings. They could provide a capacity of 2,000 x 4kW = 8MW, or about 45% of the solar capacity required. Yes, I know many live in flats, but the goal here is to look at broad brush feasibility.
Ground mounted solar would then need to deliver 9.5MW. It’s been estimated that “Approximately 25 acres of land is required for every 5 megawatts (MW) of installation while 6 to 8 acres will be needed for a 1MW farm” [6]. So lets assume 1MW parcels at average of 7 acres each. We’d need 9.5 x 7 acres or about 70 acres.
To give a sense of scale, Minchinhamption Common is 182 hectares or 450 acres, so we’d require the equivalent of 15% of it’s land area. This is not a proposal to use this common I should stress, just to give a sense of scale and feasibility. Nevertheless, shade (for our grazers and humans alike) will come at a premium by 2050 [7] so who knows?
This feels like a doable number.
To the extent to which domestic solar cannot be fully deployed, then ground mounted solar could be increased, or solar on commercial or civic buildings could take up the strain. I haven’t included these but they could make a substantial contribution (actually, are already making a contribution), albeit not necessarily being able to be classed as ‘community energy’.
The question naturally arises as to whether Nailsworth could use small hydro power using its streams, or as a mini Dinorwig, for energy storage, harking back to the Mill Ponds used during the 19th and 20th Century, when they provided some energy resilience to the wool mills of the town. It could of course play and role, and even if at a scale which is less significant numerically [8], could help in enabling local energy resilience [9]. There is strength in diversity, as nature teaches us.
Research on renewables offers up some pleasant surprises in how different forms of it can complement and support each other [10]. All of this is detail to explore of course.
My main goal in this essay was to establish if Community-based renewables – and specifically wind and solar – could compete in relevance with the large national assets such as North Sea wind, and thus provide a strong case for Community Energy schemes.
The answer is a definite yes.
Community Energy could provide a significant percentage (over 40%) of the terrestrial energy demand of a town like Nailsworth, throught the year. This would shift the control of energy, to a significant extent, away from large commercial assets, and could have untold benefits for local communities [11]. Nationally, such diversified and highly dispersed resources would enhance energy security for the whole country.
Richard Erskine, 6th March 2024
NOTES
[1] ‘Greening Our Energy: How Soon?’, Richard Erskine, Nailsworth Climate Action Network, nailsworthcan.org
[2] IMPACT: Community Carbon Calculator, Centre for Sustainable Energy and the University of Exeter, impact-tool.org.uk
[3] Mackay (2008), Sustainable Energy without the hot air, withouthotair.com
3.1) Note that 68 kWh/p.d for a 70m population, say, in 2050 would amount to a UK energy demand per year of 68 kWh/p.d x 60m p x 365 d/y = 1,489 TWh/y – the total energy requirement that the Oxford Study shows can be achieved with wind and solar (actually, they show we could do double that quite feasibly with out excessive use of land or sea area).
3.2) Note that the (18+12)/68 = 0.44 or 44%
But be careful not to assume that means 44% of our consumption emissions being eliminated by transport and heating as it depends on the carbon intensity of different processes. It could be more or less. Actually, due to relatively efficiencies, moving to electrification of heating in particular and also transport, make very good contributions to displacing carbon-creating energy usage. As a percentage of our terrestrial emissions, transport and heating amount to about 60%.
[4] Estimating generation from Feed in Tariff installations, James Hemingway, DECC, December 2013, assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
[5] For example, see leoht.co.uk and also Sam Jeans, How much electricity will solar panels generate?, Federation of Master Builders, 6th November 2023,
fmb.org.uk
[6] Everything You Need to Know About Solar Farm Requirements, Richard Burdett-Gardiner, 26th July 2023, The Renewable Energy Hub, renewableenergyhub.co.uk
For ground mounted solar the area used has to take account of the spacing of tilted panels to allow for shadowing etc.
[7] Heatwaves such as those in 2022 will become much more common by 2050 on our current trajectory bbc.co.uk
So who know what solutions will be needed to provide shelter from the heat?
[8] I’m emotionally attracted to the gravitational storage / micro hydro idea. After all, the Mill Ponds around Nailsworth kept the mills running when the streams ran slack. It’s part of our history. But then again, Dunkirk Mill needed only about 16kW to run, a thousandth of what we are now considering, and even 20 of these would match the vastly greater energy footprint of modern society. The Centre for Alternative Energy’s Zero Carbon Britain report includes an estimate of 8 TWh of generation from hydro (including large and micro) for UK, so about 1% of the total.
[9] Assuming 20 reservoirs at 100m above their twins on valley floor, each holding 10,000 cubic metres of water, and a round trip efficiency of 75%, one could store about 40 MWh of energy, a not inconsiderable amount. If each reservoir used a 100 kW turbine (not the largest micro turbine but illustrative) then they would generate in total 2 MW, or nearly 30% of the Nailsworth average power demand, although at full power, the reservoirs would be exhausted in 20 hours. If larger turbines were used, the duration at full power would decline in proportion (eg. if 500 kW, then in 4 hours)
For storage, Micro hydro would have to compete with (or maybe, collaborate with!) domestic or small scale batteries. For example, if each household had a battery with 100kWh storage, then 2000 of these would equal 200 MWh, and would be equivalent to 200MWh/7.5MW = 26.7h, so about 1 day’s worth of storage. That again is pretty significant local resilience to augment a national massive (30 day) storage capacity discussed in the essay.
[10] While either micro hydro or batteries may have limited capacity, they could make an extremely significant contribution to balancing the local grid over a day or so, and that could in its turn relieve pinch points in the distribution grid when there are short term mis-matches between supply and demand. Indeed, I wrote a piece – Small Is Beautiful – local renewables and storage can catalyse the greening of grid – based on some modelling in the USA that showed that even small amounts of local solar could have a disproportionately large impact in enabling increasing grid-scale wind resources. Similar modelling of a diverse array of renewable assets could reveal other pleasant surprises.
[11] A Community Energy scheme could, if setup right, ensure that it incorporates energy security for all as a founding principle, using profits to help fund the restrofitting (insulation, solar, heat pumps, etc.) of poorly built or maintained accommodation and social housing, for example.
THE END |
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| From: Wharf Rat | 3/15/2024 7:07:54 PM | | | | | | Brazil hits 40 GW milestone
Brazil has surpassed 40 GW of operational installed PV capacity, according to new figures from the ABSolar association.
The trade body said that around 27.5 GW of the installed capacity comes from distributed-generation PV systems, which include all installations up to 5 MW in size in Brazil.
Small microgeneration plants, up to 75 kW in size, represent 22.7 GW of the total, distributed across 2.4 million systems.
Brazil set to widen lead as cleanest major power sector
LITTLETON, Colorado, Oct 11 (Reuters) – Brazil generated nearly 93% of its electricity from clean sources during the first nine months of 2023, up more than 2 percentage points from the same period in 2022 and the largest clean-power share among major economies.
France has historically boasted the cleanest power sector among top economies, but has lost ground to Brazil over the past year or so due to reduced nuclear power output in France and sharp increases in solar and wind generation in Brazil, data from the Ember think tank shows.
Green energy capacity growth in 2023 will extend Brazil’s lead, revealing that it is possible to boost both clean and total power generation despite economic headwinds in the form of rising interest rates, patchy consumer demand and strained supply chains.
SOLAR OUTSHINES HYDRO
Brazil’s massive hydro power facilities have formed the backbone of its energy system for decades, and hydro accounts for about 68% of its total electricity generation in 2023. But the chief source of renewable power growth has been the solar sector, which boosted electricity output by more than 75% over the first 9 months of 2023 from the same period in 2022.
Brazil’s Electric Vehicle Revolution Continues as Sales Set to Surge by 60% in 2024
A Paradigm Shift in the Making
In a country known for its love affair with internal combustion engines and abundant supplies of sugarcane-derived ethanol, Brazil is on the cusp of a green automotive revolution. The wheels of change are turning rapidly as sales of fully electric and hybrid vehicles are poised to soar by a staggering 60% this year, a forecast by the Brazilian Association of Electric Vehicles (ABVE) reveals.
ABVE, representing prominent electric automakers such as Chinese giants BYD and Great Wall Motor Co, has predicted that Brazil’s total sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will surpass 150,000 units in 2024. This ambitious projection comes hot on the heels of a remarkable 91% surge in sales, totaling 93,927 EVs, recorded in 2023. Brazil seems determined to embrace the electric future as the world grapples with climate change and the urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
from
Open Thread Non-Petroleum, March 8, 2024 – Peak Oil Barrel |
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| From: Wharf Rat | 3/16/2024 2:07:18 PM | | | | | | US December Oil Production Flat – Peak Oil Barrel
03/08/2024 Ovi
By Ovi
All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIA's Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to December 2023.
 U.S. December oil production decreased by 4 kb/d to 13,315 kb/d. The small decrease was a mix of increases and decreases that netted out to a negligible decrease. The largest decrease came from Texas, 20 kb/d, offset by a New Mexico increase of 23 kb/d.
The dark blue graph, taken from the February 2023 STEO, is the forecast for U.S. oil production from January 2024 to December 2025. Output for December 2025 is expected to reach 13,698 kb/d. The projected January drop was due to severe storms in the central US.
The red OLS line from June 2020 to December 2023 indicates a monthly production growth rate of 65 kb/d/mth or 780 kb/d/yr. Clearly the growth rate going forward into 2024, shown by the dark blue graph, is flat and significantly lower than seen in the previous June 2020 to November 2023 time period. In January 2025 production is expected to be 13,318 kb/d, 3 kb/d higher than in December 2023. |
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| From: Wharf Rat | 3/17/2024 12:20:22 AM | | | | | | First-of-its-kind energy company plans to build new facility at retired coal plant site: 'This is incredibly symbolic' (msn.com)
Story by Rick Kazmer
• 16h •
First-of-its-kind energy company plans to build new facility at retired coal plant site: 'This is incredibly symbolic'© Provided by The Cool Down
A fascinating project being planned in Tennessee would flip an old fossil-burning power plant to nuclear fusion.
Type One Energy, which has offices in Boston; Vancouver; Madison, Wisconsin; and Oak Ridge, Tennessee, plans to bring its concept for fusion energy development to the defunct Bull Run Fossil Plant, a former coal burner. Now, experts plan to work on groundbreaking fusion technology at the site, which has the potential to unlock power like the sun's for everlasting, sustainable electricity.
What's more, the company plans to have the proof-of-concept operation running by the end of the decade, all according to Knox News.
It's part of a unique partnership with the Tennessee Valley Authority and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The company plans to invest more than $220 million into the project, creating hundreds of jobs during the next five years in an effort dubbed Infinity One. The work is also being boosted by government funding incentives, as Knox News notes.
"This is incredibly symbolic," Type One CEO Christofer Mowry said to the news agency. "It is the first time that a fusion company is actually partnering with an electric utility … and also, frankly, a national laboratory in this way."
The potential for the energy source is great, as it could create an unlimited and safe form of nuclear power, thrusting our electricity system into a cleaner future. That's why experts around the world are working on similar projects to harness powerhouse reactions. Fusion works by slamming two particles together to form a heavier atom, producing energy without long-lasting radioactive waste.
Fission, which is used in more than 400 nuclear facilities globally, splits atoms to create heat that powers turbines. While there's little to no air pollution, the process results in toxic waste, according to the U.S. Department of Energy — and sometimes disasters.
The hiccup with fusion has been sustainably creating more energy than is required to complete the reaction. Type One plans to address this with its Infinity One program in the Volunteer State, using the company's unique technology to prove that the scheme is scalable.
The science includes a large, more or less doughnut-shaped device called a stellarator. Knox News reports that Infinity One's could be around 20 feet wide. It includes magnets, advanced math, temperatures greater than 40 million degrees Fahrenheit, and other innovations that Type One's experts claim can turn theory into reality. When it comes to powering our toasters, treadmills, and TVs, it would prove that this type of system can eventually provide a stable and steady energy source. Most importantly, "no miracles needed," the company states on its website.
Agreements and other details are still being finalized on the ambitious plan, according to Knox News. But optimism seems to be mounting. And experts hope that momentum around fusion will create its own chain reaction for the game plan.
"This is an emerging industry … I think it will build on itself," Mickey Wade, an Oak Ridge associate lab director for fusion and fission energy, told Knox News. |
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| From: Wharf Rat | 3/17/2024 9:14:12 PM | | | | | | Chile's bold goals for energy revolution secure its lead in Latin America: 'A decade ago, no one would have imagined' (msn.com)
Story by Leslie Sattler
• 9h
Chile's bold goals for energy revolution secure its lead in Latin America: 'A decade ago, no one would have imagined'© Provided by The Cool Down
Chile is cooking up an exciting renewable energy future, and the rest of Latin America is taking notes.
The country's ambitious green energy program, launched in 2019, has a bold goal: completely replace fossil fuels by 2040. And Chile is already making serious progress.
The crown jewel of Chile's energy revolution is its Cerro Dominador solar thermal tower. Standing at an impressive 240 meters, it's the only one of its kind in Latin America and one of only four solar thermal towers in the world. The tower harnesses the sun's power to generate clean electricity — no toxic pollutants required.
Surrounded by a sea of 10,600 mirrors, the tower is a sight to behold. These mirrors reflect sunlight onto the tower, heating solar salts to a scorching 565 degrees Celsius. The hot salts then flow down pipes to water tanks, generating steam to spin turbines and create electricity.
This desert oasis is also pioneering another game-changing project. Chile plans to transform an old coal plant into a massive renewable energy storage system using those same solar salts extracted from the Atacama Desert. When heated by the sun's rays, these salts can store energy for hours.
Thanks to these forward-thinking projects and others, over a third of Chile's energy already comes from renewable sources such as solar and wind — and that figure will only climb.
As coal plants get phased out, Chile plans to replace them with more solar thermal plants and batteries. Each one brings the country a step closer to its ambitious goal of getting rid of air-polluting carbon emissions for good, helping Latin America breathe better.
"Very few countries in the world have been able to truly consolidate a renewable energy industry like Chile," Marta Alonso, a director at Global Energy Services, told Euronews.
The South American nation has become a shining example for its neighbors and the world.
So, if you ever vacation in Chile, take a moment to admire the Cerro Dominador tower. It's not just an engineering marvel — it's a symbol of a brighter, cleaner future for us all. With Chile leading the charge, that future looks sunnier than ever.
"A decade ago, no one would have imagined that more than a third of Chile's energy would come from the sun and wind before 2030," said Marcelo Mena, Chile's former environment minister, per Euronews. "It was seen as something ambitious and it has already been surpassed." |
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| To: Wharf Rat who wrote (23864) | 3/18/2024 8:36:33 AM | | From: Eric | | | | A New Surge in Power Use Is Threatening U.S. Climate Goals
March 17, 2024 at 3:42 pm
Data centers in Ashburn, Va., March 10, 2024. At least 75 data centers have opened in Virginia since 2019. (Nathan Howard/The New York Times)
By
Brad Plumer
The New York Times
Something unusual is happening in America. Demand for electricity, which has stayed largely flat for two decades, has begun to surge.
Over the past year, electric utilities have nearly doubled their forecasts of how much additional power they’ll need by 2028 as they confront an unexpected explosion in the number of data centers, an abrupt resurgence in manufacturing driven by new federal laws, and millions of electric vehicles being plugged in.
Many power companies were already struggling to keep the lights on, especially during extreme weather, and say the strain on the grid will only increase. Peak demand in the summer is projected to grow by 38,000 megawatts nationwide in the next five years, according to an analysis by the consulting firm Grid Strategies, which is like adding another California to the grid.
“The numbers we’re seeing are pretty crazy,” said Daniel Brooks, vice president for integrated grid and energy systems at the Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit organization.
In an ironic twist, the swelling appetite for more electricity, driven not only by electric cars but also by battery and solar factories and other aspects of the clean-energy transition, could also jeopardize the country’s plans to fight climate change.
To meet spiking demand, utilities in states such as Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia are proposing to build dozens of power plants over the next 15 years that would burn natural gas. In Kansas, one utility has postponed the retirement of a coal plant to help power a giant electric-car battery factory.
Burning more gas and coal runs counter to President Joe Biden’s pledge to halve the nation’s planet-warming greenhouse gases and to generate all of America’s electricity from pollution-free sources such as wind, solar and nuclear by 2035.
“I can’t recall the last time I was so alarmed about the country’s energy trajectory,” said Tyler H. Norris, a former solar developer and expert in power systems who is now pursuing a doctorate at Duke University. If a wave of new gas-fired plants gets approved by state regulators, he said, “it is game over for the Biden administration’s 2035 decarbonization goal.”
Some utilities say they need additional fossil fuel capacity because cleaner alternatives such as wind or solar power aren’t growing fast enough and can be bogged down by delayed permits and snarled supply chains. While a data center can be built in just one year, it can take five years or longer to connect renewable energy projects to the grid and a decade to build some of the long-distance power lines they require. Utilities also note that data centers and factories need power 24 hours a day, something wind and solar can’t do alone.
Yet many regulated utilities also have financial incentives to build new gas plants, since they can recover their costs to build plants, wires and other equipment from ratepayers and pocket an additional percentage as profit. As a result, critics say, utilities often overlook, or even block, ways to make existing power systems more efficient or to integrate more renewable energy into the grid.
“It is entirely feasible to meet growing electricity demand without so much gas, but it requires regulators to challenge the utilities and push for less-traditional solutions,” Norris said.
The stakes are high. If more power isn’t brought online relatively soon, large portions of the country could risk blackouts, according to a recent report by the North American Electric Reliability Corp., which monitors the health of the nation’s electric grids.
“Right now everyone’s getting caught flat-footed” by rising demand for electricity, said John Wilson, a vice president at Grid Strategies.
Why Demand Is Spiking
For much of the 20th century, America’s electricity use increased steadily and utilities built plenty of coal, gas and nuclear plants in response. But starting in the mid-2000s, demand flattened. The economy and population kept expanding, but factories, lightbulbs and even refrigerators became much more energy efficient.
Now demand is rising again, for several reasons.
The growth of remote work, video streaming and online shopping has led to a frenzied expansion of data centers across the nation. The rise of artificial intelligence is poised to accelerate that trend: By 2030, electricity demand at U.S. data centers could triple, using as much power as 40 million homes, according to Boston Consulting Group.
In Northern Virginia, one of the nation’s largest data center hubs, at least 75 facilities have opened since 2019 and Dominion Energy, the local utility, says data center capacity could double in just five years.
At the same time, investment in U.S. manufacturing is hitting a 50-year high, fueled by new federal tax breaks to lift microchip and clean-tech production. Since 2021, companies have announced plans to spend at least $525 billion on factories for semiconductors, batteries, solar panels and more.
In Georgia, where dozens of electric vehicle companies and suppliers are setting up shop, the state’s largest utility now expects 16 times as much growth in electricity demand this decade as it did two years ago.
Millions of Americans are also buying plug-in vehicles and electric heat pumps for their homes, spurred by recent federal incentives. In California, one-fifth of new cars sold are electric, and officials estimate that EVs could account for 10% of power use during peak hours by 2035.
On top of that, record heat fueled by global warming is spurring people to crank up air-conditioning, causing summer demand in Arizona and Texas to rise faster than forecast.
Many worry the grid won’t keep up.
PJM Interconnection, which oversees the nation’s largest regional grid, stretching from Illinois to New Jersey, is now expecting an additional 10,000 megawatts of demand by 2030 that wasn’t forecast last year. That’s akin to adding another New York City to the system.
“To see that come on all of the sudden, even for a system as big as ours, that’s significant,” said Ken Seiler, who leads system planning for PJM.
Finding enough power could be a challenge, since PJM’s process for connecting renewable energy projects to the grid has been afflicted by delays. Utilities in PJM have been preparing to retire roughly 40,000 megawatts of mostly coal, gas and oil-burning power plants this decade as states seek to transition away from fossil fuels. PJM has already approved an additional 40,000 megawatts of mostly wind, solar and batteries as partial replacements. But many of those projects have been stalled by local opposition or trouble getting vital equipment like transformers.
“We have a huge concern about that,” Seiler said. “Folks aren’t building.”
Nationwide, just 251 miles of high-voltage transmission lines were completed last year, a number that has been declining for a decade.
So far, one state that has kept pace with explosive demand is Texas, where electricity use has risen 29% over the past decade, partly driven by things like bitcoin mining, liquefied natural gas terminals and the electrification of oil fields. Texas’ streamlined permitting process allows wind, solar and battery projects to get built and connected faster than almost anywhere else, and the state zoomed past California last year to lead the nation in large-scale solar power.
“Texas still has problems, but there’s a lot to learn from how the state makes it easier to build clean energy,” said Devin Hartman, director of energy and environmental policy at the R Street Institute.
Emissions Targets Suffer
Soaring demand has provoked major fights over the future of natural gas.
In North Carolina, regulators had ordered Duke Energy, the state’s biggest utility, to slash its planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions by 70% by 2030.
But in January, Duke warned it could miss that target by at least five years under a new plan to build up to five large gas-burning power plants and five smaller versions by 2033, more than previously proposed. Even though Duke is planning a major increase in solar and offshore wind power, the company says it needs additional gas plants because demand from industrial customers is rising faster than expected.
“The growth we’re seeing is historic in scale and speed,” said Kendal Bowman, president of Duke Energy’s operations in North Carolina. “But it’s also going to be a challenge, particularly in the near term, to see carbon reduction at the same time we’ve got this unprecedented growth.”
Similar revisions are occurring elsewhere. In Virginia, Dominion Energy has proposed to meet rising demand for data centers with a mix of renewables and gas generation in a plan that could increase its overall emissions. Georgia Power has asked permission to build three new gas- and oil-burning turbines and is evaluating whether to postpone the planned retirement of two older coal plants.
“It’s completely at odds with what we need to do to” to fight climate change, said Greg Buppert, a senior attorney at the Southern Environmental Law Center, which has identified at least 33,000 megawatts worth of gas projects being proposed by utilities across the Southeast, plants that could stick around burning fossil fuels for decades.
In interviews, utility executives say gas is needed to back up wind and solar power, which don’t run all the time. Gas plants can sometimes be easier to build than renewables, since they may not require new long-distance transmission lines. Eventually, additional sources of clean power may emerge (both Duke and Dominion want to build smaller nuclear reactors) but those are years away.
“We need to meet our customers’ needs at all times, even when renewable resources might not be providing energy,” said Aaron Mitchell, vice president for planning and pricing at Georgia Power. “It’s going to take a diversified fleet.”
Mitchell noted that Georgia Power was planning a large build-out of solar power and batteries over the next decade and would offer incentives to companies to use less power during times of grid stress. But, he added, “gas has to be a near-term part of our fleet.”
Critics say that regulated utilities often default to building gas plants because it’s a familiar technology and because, in many states, they earn a guaranteed profit from capital projects. They don’t always have the same incentive to adopt energy-efficiency programs that reduce sales or to plan transmission lines that can import cheaper wind power from elsewhere.
“The big utilities are typically most comfortable with one way of doing things: building those big, conventional power plants,” said Heather O’Neill, president of Advanced Energy United, a trade group representing low-carbon technology companies.
There are other ways to meet rising demand that require burning fewer fossil fuels, experts say. Utilities could get more creative about helping customers use less electricity during peak hours or make better use of batteries, reducing strains on the grid. Advanced sensors and other technologies could push more renewable energy through existing transmission lines. Some utilities are pursuing these options, but many are not.
Over the coming months, environmentalists and other groups aim to challenge utility plans at state regulatory proceedings. In some cases, they’ll argue that the utility has overestimated future demand growth or neglected alternatives to gas. While these debates can get technical, they could have a significant impact on the nation’s energy future.
The tech companies and manufacturers that are driving up electricity demand could also play a major role, experts say. Many firms have pledged to use clean electricity for their operations, and it remains to be seen how hard they actually push power companies to provide it.
“A big question,” said Brian Janous, a former vice president for energy at Microsoft, “is how much outside pressure utilities and state regulators will face to do things differently.”
This story was originally published at nytimes.com. Read it here.
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