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   PoliticsRat's Nest - Chronicles of Collapse

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From: Wharf Rat7/12/2019 1:30:55 AM
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Japan walks away from new coal, denting prospects for NSW coal exports

The demand for new coal-fired power stations in Japan has collapsed dramatically over the last four years, as Japan prioritises new renewables projects over fossil fuels.

A new report authored by IEEFA analysts Tim Buckley and Simon Nicholas suggests the trend will have significant ramifications for Australia, particularly the NSW coal industry, which is amongst the largest suppliers of thermal coal to Japan.

Japan is the largest customer of coal exported from NSW, receiving 45% of NSW coal exports in 2018, but a greater focus on embracing renewables has seen plans for an expansion of Japan’s coal generator fleet largely shelved.

Since 2015, the development pipeline for new coal-fired power plants in Japan has fallen from around 12,600MW to just over 4,580MW, representing a 64% decline as Japan backs away from coal.

Numerous planned new coal developments have been cancelled because they have not stacked up financially. The emergence of more cost-effective renewable energy projects has accelerated this trend, along with decisions from major Japanese financiers and insurance firms to reduce their exposure to fossil fuel investments.


Natural gas beat coal in US. Will renewables and storage soon beat gas?

Coal, the long-reigning king of the U.S. power sector, was officially dethroned by cheap, abundant natural gas in 2016. In 2018, natural gas fueled more than 60 percent of newly installed electric-generating capacity and accounted for 35 percentof total U.S. electricity generation.

But that may be about to change. Natural gas faces intensifying pressure from wind and solar power combined with storage technologies. Renewable energy resources such as solar and wind are expected to be the fastest growing source of electricity generation, outpacing gas for at least the next two years.

Electricity generation from utility-scale solar is expected to grow by 17 percent in 2020 and that from wind by 14 percent during the next two years


US renewable energy transition to move faster than anticipated by 2022: FERC report

Dive Insight:

Looking between FERC’s April and May infrastructure updates, renewables appear to be displacing fossil fuel and nuclear capacity at a faster pace. The May Energy Infrastructure Update included an additional 3 GW of coal capacity expected for retirement.

“The revisions in FERC’s latest three-year projections underscore the dramatic changes taking place in the nation’s electrical generating mix,” Ken Bossong, executive director of the SUN DAY Campaign, said in a statement.

“The FERC 3-year forecast of U.S. electrical generating mix is an affirmation that the clean energy transition is underway,” World Resources Institute (WRI) Senior Associate Devashree Saha told Utility Dive via email.


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To: Mannie who wrote (20780)7/16/2019 11:43:51 PM
From: Wharf Rat
   of 21576

There is no clutch and no shifting.

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From: Wharf Rat7/17/2019 12:03:38 AM
   of 21576
“Sun Cable recently unveiled a plan to build a massive solar power plant in the Northern Territories. Costing $20 billion and covering 15,000 hectares, it will supply some power to Darwin and other NT cities but its most unusual feature will be a 3,800 kilometer undersea high voltage transmission cable that will supply power to Singapore.”

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (20882)7/17/2019 12:09:06 AM
From: Wharf Rat
   of 21576
OPEC June Crude Oil Production
by RON PATTERSON posted on 07/12/2019

The following June OPEC data is based on the latest July OPEM Monthly Oil Market Report and is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 14 crude only production was down 68,000 barrels per day in June....

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (20881)7/17/2019 1:06:14 AM
From: Mannie
   of 21576
There will be an electric motorcycle in my future, I’m just waiting for “the one.” I bought an electric bicycle a little over a year ago, I absolutely love it, it is such a joy to ride. About a month ago I added a cargo box with a bed in it for Panda.... I didn’t think she would like it, but she loves going for rides! We did a 12 mile ride this afternoon, she is so into it, it’s great to see.

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From: Wharf Rat7/17/2019 7:47:47 PM
1 Recommendation   of 21576



DescriptionFERC P-13642Estimated Average Annual Energy: 1300 GWhEstimated Installed Capacity: 400 MWNumber of Proposed Turbine Generators: 3Reservoirs sized at approximately 4,000 acre-feetHead (Height Between Reservoirs) 1,025 feet

Montana based, Absaroka Energy, LLC is developing the Gordon Butte Pumped Storage Hydro Project. The project will be located on private land in Meagher County, Montana, three miles west of the small town of Martinsdale. Our project is designed to take advantage of the unique geological features of Gordon Butte to create a new closed-loop pumped storage hydro facility. This facility will provide ancillary and balancing capabilities to Montana’s emerging renewable energy industry, as well as, provide multiple services to facilitate stability, reliability, growth and longevity to existing energy infrastructure and resources in the state and region.

The Gordon Butte Hydro Pumped Storage Facility will consist of upper and lower closed-loop reservoirs connected by an underground concrete and steel-lined hydraulic shaft. Our pumped storage hydro project will be an off-stream facility, constructed out of any existing watersheds thereby minimizing impacts to the local watersheds and riparian ecosystems. Each reservoir will be approximately 4,000 feet long and 1,000 feet wide with depths of 50 to 75 feet. As currently designed, an underground powerhouse with three turbine-generators would be located at the bottom reservoir. These generators would provide an installed capacity of 400 megawatts, allowing for an estimated annual energy generation of 1300 gigawatt hours.

GB Energy Park received its preliminary permit from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in 2013. This was followed by a multi-year consultation process with state and federal agencies, local landowners, environmental groups, and other interested stakeholders to identify, study and mitigate important issues related to the construction of this project. October 1, 2015, GB Energy Park filed the Final License Application for the project with FERC. The Commission accepted the license application as complete on November 16, 2015 and issued its Environmental Analysis with a Finding of No Significant Impacts on September 27, 2016.

On December 14, 2016, GBEP received an Original License for the Gordon Butte Pumped Storage Hydro Project. The license authorizes GBEP to construct and operate the facility for a period of 50 years.

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From: Eric7/19/2019 11:51:01 AM
   of 21576

New York Awards 1.7GW of Offshore Wind as Cuomo Signs State’s Green New Deal

Offshore wind developers Ørsted and Equinor will build huge projects to supply power for Long Island and New York City, in what the state calls the largest U.S. renewables procurement in history.

Karl-Erik Stromsta

July 18, 2019

Former Vice President Al Gore joined Cuomo for the signing in New York City.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on Thursday announced 1.7 gigawatts of offshore wind deals with two development groups, as he signed into law the state’s ambitious Green New Deal.

Not only is it the largest offshore wind procurement to date in the U.S., topping New Jersey's recent 1.1-gigawatt solicitation, but state officials said it was the single largest renewables procurement in the country's history.

The 880-megawatt Sunrise Wind project will be built by Denmark’s Ørsted and its utility partner Eversource Energy, feeding power onto densely populated Long Island.

"Long Island needs that power, and it needs it today," Cuomo said in front of a packed audience in Manhattan.

Meanwhile, Norway’s Equinor will build the 816-megawatt Empire Wind project, delivering electricity into New York City.

The developers can now begin negotiating long-term contracts with New York for offshore wind renewable energy certificates. Both projects are due for completion in 2024.

Two other development groups were not chosen in the solicitation: Vineyard Wind, a joint venture of Avangrid and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners; and Atlantic Shores, a joint venture of EDF Renewables and Shell New Energies.

Flanked by former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, Cuomo also signed into law the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, commonly referred to as New York’s Green New Deal.

"The most aggressive climate law in the United States of America," as Cuomo called it, requires 70 percent renewables by 2030, a complete decarbonization of the state’s electricity system by 2040, and the near-elimination of carbon from New York's entire economy by 2050.

New York's Green New Deal passed through New York's Democrat-controlled legislature last month, and Cuomo had been expected to sign it.

Cuomo said his actions Thursday will likely prove “the most consequential of my administration.”

The Ørsted show rolls on

Anthony Logan, senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, noted that Ørsted now has a remarkable 3 gigawatts of awarded projects in U.S. waters, from Massachusetts down to a demonstration project with Dominion Energy off Virginia, giving it a big influence over the emerging supply chain.

Separately on Thursday, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy announced a 1.7-gigawatt offshore wind turbine order from Ørsted, covering Sunrise Wind as well two other contracted projects in Ørsted's portfolio.

It’s by far the largest offshore wind turbine order in the U.S. market, which has just 30 megawatts of installed capacity to date. MHI Vestas is supplying turbines for Vineyard Wind's 800-megawatt project for Massachusetts.

"Ørsted is now the undisputable center of the US offshore wind market," Logan said. "Given the currently expected solicitation schedules of other states, no other developer could likely amass a similar portfolio until at least 2022."

Equinor's win brings a new developer with a committed project to the table in the fast-evolving U.S. offshore market. Equinor's floating offshore wind experience in Europe could prove vital to the U.S. as the market moves toward California's deeper waters in the mid-2020s, Logan said.

While pricing details were not immediately available for the winning projects, Max Cohen, associate director for North American power at IHS Markit, said Vineyard Wind's Massachusetts project will likely continue to have the lowest starting price of any of the contracted U.S. projects.

"With an online date of 2024, these New York projects won’t be able to benefit from the investment tax credit, or production tax credit as the case may be, in the same way that Vineyard Wind can, which makes it hard to match Vineyard Wind on price," Cohen said.

"That said, I’m sure the four bidders were competing to gain market share in New York and build a portfolio of projects that will make future projects even more cost-effective," he added.

"So if there is a surprise on price, it will probably be because bidders were willing to take a narrow return on a first New York project to build momentum for future development."

The supply chain starts to move

New York has big ambitions for solar energy, storage, and — in upstate regions — onshore wind, all addressed in its Green New Deal. But by linking Thursday's project awards to the signing of the bill, Cuomo made clear that offshore wind will lie near the heart of the state's power decarbonization plans.

New York has a 9-gigawatt offshore wind target for 2035, and most of that power will flow to Long Island and New York City, two massive load centers with limited options for large-scale renewables generation.

Thursday's announcement will further intensify the competition between East Coast states for jobs and supply chain investment in offshore wind, expected to be one of the fastest growing renewables markets in the U.S. and globally in the coming decade.

Cuomo confirmed New York will spend nearly $300 million building and upgrading port facilities across a variety of sites, including Long Island, Brooklyn, Staten Island and the region south of Albany along the Hudson River. The port upgrades will begin next year.

Equinor said it will take advantage of infrastructure and supply-chain opportunities at the Port of Coeymans, along the Hudson River in New York's Capital Region, as well as in South Brooklyn.

"Supply chain localization announcements continue to focus on foundation fabrication, which is the most obvious choice for domestic siting despite recent talk of blade and even possible nacelle fabrication in the US," WoodMac's Logan said.

Ørsted, which recently won the entirety of New Jersey's first offshore wind procurement, has committed to helping German foundation manufacturer EEW establish a production facility in that state.

"When the details of the developer's bids become public, we will learn much more about the commitments Ørsted and Equinor have made to New York," said Stephanie McClellan, a director at the Renewables Consulting Group and the author of a recent report on the U.S. offshore wind supply chain.

"But New York state's market size, large projects out of the gate, and investing in workers and facilities all point to [it] becoming the real epicenter of East Coast offshore wind," McClellan told GTM.

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To: Eric who wrote (20886)7/19/2019 12:12:39 PM
From: Wharf Rat
   of 21576
"The most aggressive climate law in the United States of America," as Cuomo called it, requires 70 percent renewables by 2030, a complete decarbonization of the state’s electricity system by 2040, and the near-elimination of carbon from New York's entire economy by 2050.'

That's doable. California will be waiting to shake his hand when he crosses the finish line. Will Washington be waiting with us?

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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (20887)7/19/2019 12:25:59 PM
From: Eric
   of 21576
It's starting to get really interesting on the coal front.

Beginning to drop like flies!

Tri-State dumps coal, eyes wind and solar as new fling

Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association has announced it is creating an aggressive “Responsible Energy Plan,” one which begins with the retiring of the 100 MW Nucla Coal Plant in early 2020.

July 19, 2019

Tim Sylvia
Grids & Integration
Markets & Policy
Utility-scale PV
New Mexico

United Power's Brighton Solar Farm in Colorado

Photo: Colorado Energy Office - Matt McClain


With a tri-pronged promise of cutting costs and emissions while improving the reliability of its generation fleet, Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association has announced it is creating an aggressive “Responsible Energy Plan.”

Tri-state includes wind, solar and hydro under those qualifiers, but not nukes. However, what is important here isn’t only what’s coming on-line, but rather what’s going off.

Within the announcement of the new energy plan came the news that Tri-State will be retiring its 100 MW coal-fired power plant, the Nucla Station in Western Colorado at the beginning of 2020, a full two years earlier than previous expectations.

A factor that may well have played into the early shutdown decision is the fact that Tri-State’s generation mix currently sits at 50% coal. While it’s also supported by 30% renewables, that coal figure is one that member utilities haven’t been so excited with and have expressed desire to change.

And change it will, as earlier in the year Tri-State announced that it would be adding 204 MW of wind and solar to its fleet, bringing the grand total of renewables to 679 MW; currently the power company has five wind and four solar projects. Of those 204 MW 100 will come from solar, with the remaining 104 coming from wind. This will represent a 45% increase its wind and solar capacity, bringing renewables up to 43.5% of the total generation mix.

Aside from increasing renewables in the association’s generation mix, the shutting down of the Nucla Station will, as Tri-State and member utilities are hoping, provide some financial relief as well. You may remember that around a year ago Tri-State was the subject of a Rocky Mountain Institute study that found that retiring 1.8 GW of coal and replacing it with 2.5GW of solar and wind power would save the association and its members $600 million through 2030.

So, if nothing else, the Nucla retirement represents the first step towards that $600 million goal. Just 1.7 GW left to retire and 2.5GW of solar and wind power left to purchase or develop.

Outside of the large announcements, there is still wok that needs to be done on developing the “Responsible Energy Plan” as a whole. Recognizing this, Tri-State also shared that it will be building the plan through a collaborative stakeholder process with former Colorado Governor Jared Polis (D) and the Center for the New Energy Economy (CNEE) at Colorado State University.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the rest of the fossil fuel dominoes fall for Tri-State, and how quickly they’re replaced. One last thing to keep an eye on is the composition of the renewable mix that Tri-State brings on-line. While the plan outlines wind, solar and hydro, their current generation map seems to only show the two former. (The blue dots are wind and the yellow are solar.)

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From: Eric7/19/2019 12:37:06 PM
   of 21576
Hawaii sets draft rules for wind+solar+storage procurement

Hawaiian Electric Companies has released its draft request for proposals to procure just over 2 terawatt-hours of renewable electricity, and just over 200 MW of capacity services, between the summer of 2022 and the end of 2025.

July 19, 2019

John Weaver

Energy Storage
Energy Storage
Utility-scale PV
United States

Tesla Power install in Hawaii


The Hawaiian Islands are leaders in research, self experimentation and now procurement of renewable energy. Hawaii was the first state to set a 100% clean electricity mandate, energy and transportation goals, it broke records with utility scale solar plus storage bids under a dime per kWh, and it was the first to implement a solar+storage peaker plant.

Hawaiian Electric Companies (HECO) has released the draft Renewable Request for Proposal (RFP) documents to guide the submission of bids for its recently released Phase 2 energy and grid servicesprocurement (below image). The RFP covers the islands of Oahu, Maui and Hawaii.

The Public Service Commission comments noted a stress on the process due to a power purchase agreement at a fossil plant ending in April of 2022, and how that might affect energy pricing with the tight deadlines to get these projects delivered between mid-2022 and the end of 2025. Specifically to counter this unit shutting down, HECO will be required to bring on 200 MW / 800 MWh of energy storage by June 1, 2022.

The currently proposed application timelines (pdf) (below image for the Oahu RFP) expect that this set of documents will be finalized by August 9, and that the proposals will be due by October 21 and 22 of this year. Selection of priority projects will be presented on January 3 next year, with the final award group in April of 2020 – followed by contract negotiations.

The last page of the document above includes a grid services RFP (volumes in below image) as well, that has a tighter schedule – bids being due on October 15, a short list by Thanksgiving, and then a final award group later in December with negotiations starting just before Christmas. The rules and logic for the Grid Services RFP (pdf) notes that the goal of the procurement is to make use behind the meter resources.

Developers may submit proposals that employ controllable customer loads, energy storage devices, and/or non-fossil generation amongst other technologies.

The real deal document – Draft RFP for Variable Renewable Dispatchable Generation and Energy Storage for Oahu (pdf), is over 1,000 page, notes many of the technicalities – grid connections payment structures, etc – of how the deals will be structured.

For instance, for solar plus storage projects, the package must include the following prices for IPP or Affiliate proposals:
  • Lump Sum Payment ($/year)
  • Price for Purchase of Electric Energy ($/MWh)
  • Black Start ($)
For self build proposals:
  • Total Project Capital Costs ($)
  • Annual O&M Costs ($/year)
  • Annual Revenue Requirement ($/year)
  • Black Start ($)
Another detail noted in the Ohau RFP regarding energy storage is,
To maintain the integrity of the transmission system, standalone energy storage Proposals or Proposals coupled with energy storage that intend to meet the needs of the Company’s 438,000 MWh energy storage should either be sited on land near or adjacent to one the following 138 kV substations available (below image) for interconnection.

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