| From: Paul Senior | 9/8/2019 2:22:56 PM | | | | | | Just reviewing, I see:
Company is net earning profitable in 9 of past 11 years.
P/e is 10.6 vs ten year median of 12.6.
Price/stated bv is about 1. In past decade p/stated bv has been above 1.5 (Morningstar table (avgs)).
Price/cash flow looks low (per Morningstar data)
Dividend has been .80/year for at least a decade.
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Ok, so no dividend growth. Otoh, it would seem to me that management would have at least some interest though in not ever cutting it and ruining the co's history.
Ammunition sales may be down generally as people have stocked up. I'm not sure; haven't followed this aspect of the business.
Chlor Alkali business could be affected by big Chinese production coming on-line. Otoh, maybe there are going to be tariffs that might be beneficial to OLN. I don't follow caustic soda, etc. prices or forecasts, but I understand that chlor alkali demand is predicted to increase over the next few years.
Company recently spent $20M in remediation. I've read that some people believe OLN's exposure to environmental issues and health claims from one plant could amount to $Billions (?). |
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| To: Paul Senior who wrote (147) | 9/9/2019 10:56:19 AM | | From: richardred | | | | I was expecting to hang on longer. I sold my shares today because I was weighted and had a nice quick swing trade profit. If the stock gets back in the 15 range. I'll once again be interested.
The dividend since I can remember has been maintained at .80. I expect that to be maintained through thick and thin.
With regard to Chinese production. I believe that was addressed in the earnings call. I thought the news was positive for OLN. I'm also guessing Iran's CA production has been affected by the US ban.
The company since I can remember has had various payouts for chemical remediation. I suppose if they owned or still own one of the Chemical Superfund clean up sites, their shares of costs would be higher? I'm not sure what current reserves they have set aside for remediation or the extent? The Superfund clean up fund was to address this. Especially for those who went bankrupt and had no money to pay for clean up. The originator is responsible. The question was asked at the call with regards to Dow properties. Dow is responsible for remediation on it's former properties.
Winchester- IMO still should be spun off or sold. I believe that would be a catalyst for the stock if that hypothetical happens. |
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| From: richardred | 8/22/2020 11:56:31 AM | | | | | | Brought back in when it broke below 10. Based on past history when earnings didn't cover the dividend. I currently feel the dividend will be maintained for now. Debt is high, but feel the company is financed ok till things improve. RE-Dividend- Kind of like BGS foods where it was important for it to be maintained. Nice to see some insider buying at 11. Maybe a sign CA prices are near bottom? Given small arms demand and military contracts. I reiterate that I think the Winchester small caliber ammunition should be spun off to share holders.
Braskem to restart shut chlor-alkali, EDC plants in Nov: executive.
spglobal.com
P.S.
| To: richardred who wrote (142) | 8/23/2019 10:30:05 AM | | From: richardred | Read Replies (1) of 153 | | | Added to OLN today on the new low. Olin the master of spin offs. Maybe it's time for Winchester? A small 2000 share insider buy @ 16.68. The dividend has been maintained @ .80 for as long as I can remember. A place to park some $ till the housing market recovers.
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