| From: Julius Wong | 10/3/2024 5:33:07 PM | | | | | | Oil tanker stocks surge as market awaits potential Israel retaliation against Iran
Oct. 03, 2024 1:23 PM ET
By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
 rgaydos/E+ via Getty Images
Frontline (NYSE: FRO) and other oil tanker stocks are rallying this week as Israel weighs potential retaliation for Iran's missile launch against it, and whether Israel's response will include any of Iran's key energy assets.
Tanker companies, wary of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, have limited the hire of their vessels, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing three vessel owners.
Earnings for Aframax-class ships to deliver 700K-barrel cargoes of U.S. oil to Europe surged 249% this weak to reach nearly $58K/day, the Baltic Exchange reports, Bloomberg said.
The Exchange's overall assessment of Aframax earnings doubled this week to slightly more than $42K/day, Suezmaxes have gained 56% to $36K/day this week, and Very Large Crude Carriers have gained 10%.
Frontline (NYSE: FRO) has gained 8% in the three days since Iraq's missile attack to its highest level since mid-August; among other strong gainers include International Seaways ( INSW), DHT Holdings ( DHT), Nordic American Tankers ( NAT), Scorpio Tankers ( STNG), Teekay Corp. ( TK), Teekay Tankers ( TNK), Danaos ( DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation ( TEN).
The increase in shipping rates is "consistent with the usual seasonal uptick heading into the winter, backed by a strong underlying market with limited supply growth and increasing geopolitical risks," Clarksons analysts wrote. |
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| From: Julius Wong | 10/3/2024 9:31:07 PM | | | | | | Gold and Bitcoin will benefit from a “debasement trade” caused by geopolitical tensions - analyst
Oct. 03, 2024 5:06 PM ET
By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
 koto_feja
Rising geopolitical tensions and the U.S. election are reinforcing a “debasement trade” and favoring both gold ( XAUUSD:CUR) and Bitcoin ( BTC-USD).
Recent geopolitical conflict has shifted attention to alternative asset classes or hedges, such as gold ( XAUUSD:CUR) and Bitcoin ( BTC-USD), said Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, strategist at J.P. Morgan, in a note.
What analysts call the “debasement trade” is a combination of gold demand factors that reflect higher geopolitical uncertainty in clients and their trade. Those include longer-term inflation backdrop, government deficits, and the diversification away from the dollar, among other things.
Gold futures positions show a rising impulse by speculative institutional investors, such as hedge funds, Panigirtzoglou said.
“It is interesting that there has been a similarly bullish impulse in CME bitcoin futures ( BTC-USD) in recent months, but not ethereum futures ( ETH-USD),” he said. “To us this suggest that speculative institutional investors such as hedge funds might see gold and bitcoin as similar assets…both as beneficiaries of the so-called ‘debasement trade’.”
In addition, bitcoin ETFs began seeing inflows again in September, after outflows in August, suggesting that retail investors “might also see gold ( XAUUSD:CUR) and bitcoin ( BTC-USD) in similar fashion.”
Top U.S. bitcoin ETFs by total assets:
- iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT) – $22.9B in assets
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF ( GBTC) – $13.95B in assets
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bicoin Fund ( FBTC) – $11.2B in assets
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ( ARKB) – $2.9B in assets
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust ( BITB) – $2.4B in assets
- Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ( BTC) – $2.1B in assets
- ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF ( BITO) – $1.8B in assets
- 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF ( BITX) – $1.6B in assets
- ARK Next Generation Internet ETF ( ARKW) – $1.4B in assets
Lastly, the upcoming U.S. election is expected to reinforce this “debasement trade.”
A Trump victory would reinforce it through higher tariffs, and an expansionary fiscal policy, said Panigirtzoglou. |
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| To: Kirk © who wrote (7791) | 10/8/2024 7:14:56 AM | | From: Julius Wong | | | | Morgan Stanley’s list of tax loss selling stocks
Oct. 07, 2024 3:28 PM ET
By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
 ipopba/iStock via Getty Images
Morgan Stanley analysts published their list of tax loss selling stocks.
These are stocks in the top quintile of “sell” ratings on Jan. 16, as a proxy for stocks that are favored or widely held. Analysts also screen for stocks that saw at least a 10% drop in their price from mid-January through the end of September.
Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Michael J. Wilson said they limit the downside to 25%, since the stocks with the biggest price drops “tend to show something of a rebound in the fourth quarter.”
Wilson also said that the bulk of underperformance, compared to the market – the compared benchmark is the S&P 1500 (NYSEARCA: SPTM) – for the list happens in October.
“In the month of October, our tax loss selling stocks have tended to underperform the market by an average of 178 basis points and underperform sector and industry group peers by 114, and 110 basis points, respectively, with hit rates of about 55%,” he said.
The tax loss selling stocks underperform the average stock in their sector by 137 basis points in the fourth quarter, with a hit rate of 54%; and underperform the average stock in their industry group by 128 basis points in the fourth quarter, with a hit rate of 54%.
Within communication services ( XLC)
- Iridium Communications Inc. ( IRDM) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: - 20%
Within consumer discretionary ( XLY)
- Aptiv Plc ( APTV) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -11%
- Standard Motor Products Inc. ( SMP) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -15%
- XPEL Inc. ( XPEL) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -16%
- Haverty Furniture Companies Inc. ( HVT) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -19%
- LKQ Corp. ( LKQ) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -16%
- Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. ( HGV) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -12%
- Mister Car Wash Inc. ( MCW) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -22%
Within consumer staples ( XLP)
- Darling Ingredients Inc. ( DAR) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -17%
- Simply Good Foods Co. ( SMPL) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -17%
Within energy ( XLE)
- Chord Energy Corp. ( CHRD) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -15%
- Civitas Resources Inc. ( CIVI) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -21%
- Halliburton Co. ( HAL) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -13%
- Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. ( PTEN) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -24%
- Schlumberger Limited ( SLB) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -13%
- Talos Energy Inc. ( TALO) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -18%
- Valaris Ltd. ( VAL) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -15%
Within financials ( XLF)
- Global Payments Inc. ( GPN) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -21%
Within health care ( XLV)
- Privia Health Group Inc. ( PRVA) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -15%
- Simulations Plus Inc. ( SLP) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -16%
- U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. ( USPH) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -11%
- Biogen Inc. ( BIIB) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -21%
- Dynavax Technologies Corp. ( DVAX) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -21%
- Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. ( NBIX) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -13%
- Perrigo Co. Plc. ( PRGO) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -21%
- Repligen Corp. ( RGEN) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -14%
- West Pharmaceutical Services Inc. ( WST) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -13%
Within industrials ( XLI)
- Alamo Group Inc. ( ALG) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -12%
- Boeing Co. ( BA) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -24%
- Gibraltar Industries Inc. ( ROCK) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -12%
- Insteel Industries Inc. ( IIIN) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -14%
- NV5 Global Inc. ( NVEE) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -10%
Information technology ( XLK)
- Photronics Inc. ( PLAB) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -16%
- Adobe Inc. ( ADBE) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -13%
Materials ( XLB)
- Arch Resources Inc. Class A ( ARCH) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -17%
- Quaker Houghton ( KWR) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -14%
- Stepan Co. ( SCL) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -12%
Real estate ( XLRE)
- Armada Hoffler Properties Inc. ( AHH) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -11%
- Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. ( HST) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -11%
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| From: Julius Wong | 10/9/2024 8:05:10 AM | | | | | | Insurance brokers a safe bet against Hurricane Milton; reinsurers vulnerable - analysts
Oct. 08, 2024 9:59 AM ET
By: Max Gottlich, SA News Editor
 cdwheatley/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images
With Hurricane Milton seen making landfall midweek as a category 3 storm (or stronger), analysts are calling for an outsized insurance loss event. Until the exact path is known, reinsurance stocks are expected to see further volatility, while insurance broker stocks could be a defensive play.
Depending on how much damage the West Florida storm causes, insured losses could range from $10B to $100B, Wells Fargo's Elyse Greenspan wrote in a note, citing BMS estimates. She noted that markets appear to be pricing in a loss of more than $50B.
Property and casualty insurance stocks fell markedly Monday on the prospect of rising claims from their policyholders, before paring some losses in Tuesday morning trading. The SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (NYSEARCA: KIE) edged up 0.8% at press time.
Greenspan's base case for P&C insurance losses is $20B.
In all, she wrote, "reinsurance stocks should continue to be volatile," while insurance brokers could be a safe bet as they wouldn't incur losses from the storm "and should benefit from any price firming post Milton."
Net of reinsurance, Progressive (NYSE: PGR), Allstate (NYSE: ALL) and Chubb (NYSE: CB) have the most homeowners' exposure among the primaries, while RenaissanceRe Holdings (NYSE: RNR) and Everest Group (NYSE: EG) have the most exposure among reinsurers, Evercore ISI analyst David Motemaden wrote in a Monday note.
In commercial property, he added, Chubb and American International Group (NYSE: AIG) have the most exposure in his overall coverage, although AIG "is well protected given extensive reinsurance purchases."
Insurance brokers: Arthur J. Gallagher ( AJG), Brown & Brown ( BRO) Marsh & McLennan ( MMC).
Reinsurers: Arch Capital Group ( ACGL), Oxbridge Re Holdings ( OXBR), Reinsurance Group of America ( RGA).
P&C insurers: Aflac ( AFL), Travelers Companies ( TRV), Hartford Financial Services Group ( HIG), Cincinnati Financial ( CINF). |
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| From: Julius Wong | 10/10/2024 6:37:48 PM | | | | | | Wolfe’s tax loss selling stocks within industrials, tech, materials
Oct. 10, 2024 2:39 PM ET
By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
 Yozayo/iStock via Getty Images
Wolfe Research put together a tax loss selling basket.
Here is part 1.
Typically, the biggest year-to-date losers underperform in a big way during the last months of the year, and with the Oct. 31 mutual fund year-end approaching, analysts expect tax loss selling to accelerate.
“Historically, avoiding the biggest year-to-date losers has been a positive alpha generating strategy heading into the last several months of the year,” wrote Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist, in a note. “The reason is that the market’s biggest laggards can be subject to selling pressures by investors looking to harvest capital losses and/or provide ‘window dressing’ for their annual reports.”
September, October and December are the most common for mutual funds.
The following stocks, divided by sector, are in Wolfe’s tax loss selling basket, part 2:
Industrials:
- Avis Budget Group Inc. ( CAR) – Year-to-date price change: -53%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -32%
- Atkore Inc. ( ATKR) – Year-to-date price change: -48%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -38%
- Concentrix ( CNXC) – Year-to-date price change: -46%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -25%
- Clarivate Plc ( CLVT) – Year-to-date price change: -29%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -6%
- Robert Half ( RHI) – Year-to-date price change: -24%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -5%
- NexTracker ( NXT) – Year-to-date price change: -22%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -22%
- American Airlines Group ( AAL) – Year-to-date price change: -21%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -14%
- AGCO Corp. ( AGCO) – Year-to-date price change: -21%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -9%
- Chart Industries ( GTLS) – Year-to-date price change: -12%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -10%
Information technology:
- Wolfespeed ( WOLF) – Year-to-date price change: -80%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -61%
- SolarEdge Tech ( SEDG) – Year-to-date price change: -78%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -61%
- Five9 Inc. ( FIVN) – Year-to-date price change: -64%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -47%
- Intel Corp. ( INTC) – Year-to-date price change: -56%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -32%
- DoubleVerify Holdings ( DV) – Year-to-date price change: -54%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -34%
- Freshworks Inc. (FRSH) – Year-to-date price change: -54%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -34%
- UiPath Inc. ( PATH) – Year-to-date price change: -52%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -32%
- Unity Software ( U) – Year-to-date price change: -49%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -18%
- Snowflake Inc. ( SNOW) – Year-to-date price change: -44%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -28%
- Braze Inc. ( BRZE) – Year-to-date price change: -42%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -30%
- Paycor HCM Inc. ( PYCR) – Year-to-date price change: -37%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -16%
- Bill Holdings ( BILL) – Year-to-date price change: -36%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -18%
- Qualys Inc. ( QLYS) – Year-to-date price change: -36%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -21%
- GlobalFoundries Inc. ( GFS) – Year-to-date price change: -36%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -24%
- EPAM Systems ( EPAM) – Year-to-date price change: -34%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -15%
- IPG Photonics Corp. ( IPGP) – Year-to-date price change: -33%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -17%
- Atlassian Corp. ( TEAM) – Year-to-date price change: -33%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -14%
- Teradata Corp. ( TDC) – Year-to-date price change: -32%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -20%
- Allegro MicroSystems ( ALGM) – Year-to-date price change: -30%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -21%
- Lattice Semiconductor Corp. ( LSCC) – Year-to-date price change: -25%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -16%
- Power Integrations Inc. ( POWI) – Year-to-date price change: -24%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -13%
- Workiva Inc. ( WK) – Year-to-date price change: -24%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -8%
- Zscaler Inc. ( ZS) – Year-to-date price change: -23%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -12%
- GitLab Inc. ( GTLB) – Year-to-date price change: -23%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -12%
- Paycom Software Inc. ( PAYC) – Year-to-date price change: -19%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -5%
- Confluent Inc. ( CFLT) – Year-to-date price change: -19%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -24%
Materials:
- The Chemours Co. ( CC) – Year-to-date price change: -39%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -21%
- Cleveland Cliffs ( CLF) – Year-to-date price change: -37%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -23%
- Albemarle Corp. ( ALB) – Year-to-date price change: -35%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -18%
- The Mosaic Co. ( MOS) – Year-to-date price change: -25%; Price vs. 12-month volume-weighted average price: -14%
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| From: Julius Wong | 10/11/2024 7:28:19 AM | | | | | | Tesla tops list of most heavily shorted securities in September, Hazeltree says
Oct. 10, 2024 11:45 AM ET
By: Preeti Singh, SA News Editor
 Gunter_Nezhoda
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) regained its position as the most heavily shorted security in the Americas in September, according to the latest Shortside Crowdedness Report from Hazeltree.
The Austin, Texas-based EV maker topped the list as the most crowded security in the large-cap category with a score of 99, moving up from second position in August (97). The Hazeltree Crowdedness Score represents securities that are being shorted by the highest percentage of funds in Hazeltree’s community.
As of Sep 30, traders sold 74.33M shares of TSLA short, representing 2.33% of the float.
“It is notable to see that Tesla regained its position as the top shorted large-cap stock in the Americas, a position which, until July, it had held for nearly every month since we’ve launched the report,” said Tim Smith, managing director of data insights at Hazeltree.
On Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ON) was a close second, followed by Western Digital (NASDAQ: WDC) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX), all of which scored 96. Chevron ( CVX), which had been the most crowded security in this category in August, dropped to the fourth spot this time.
Tractor Supply Company ( TSCO) had the highest institutional supply utilization (12.83%) - an indicator of how “hot” a security is in terms of the supply demand dynamic. Tractor Supply ( TSCO) had a short interest of 7M shares as of Sep 30, representing 6.51% of the float.
In the mid-cap category, Bloom Energy ( BE) and Shift4 Payments ( FOUR) were the most crowded securities, each with a Hazeltree Crowdedness Score of 99. Wolfspeed ( WOLF) continued its hold as the most crowded security in the small-cap category.
These were the top 10 most shorted large-cap securities in the Americas in September, according to Hazeltree:
#1 Tesla ( TSLA): Hazeltree Crowdedness Score of 99
#2 On Semiconductor ( ON): Hazeltree Crowdedness Score of 96
#3 Western Digital ( WDC): Hazeltree Crowdedness Score of 96
#4 Chevron ( CVX): Hazeltree Crowdedness Score of 96
#5 Caterpillar ( CAT): Hazeltree Crowdedness Score of 93
#6 Deere &Company ( DE): Hazeltree Crowdedness Score of 93
#7 Live Nation Entertainment ( LYV): Hazeltree Crowdedness Score of 89
#8 IBM ( IBM): Hazeltree Crowdedness Score of 89
#9 Church & Dwight ( CHD): Hazeltree Crowdedness Score of 86
#10 Tractor Supply Company ( TSCO): Hazeltree Crowdedness Score of 86 |
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