| From: Julius Wong | 9/25/2024 9:57:26 PM | | | | | | Stocks that are set to benefit from either Harris or Trump winning scenarios – Barclays
Sep. 25, 2024 3:04 PM ET
By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
 da-kuk
The upcoming U.S. presidential election is a top concern for U.S. equities for the rest of the year, according to Barclays analysts.
Analysts published a list of stocks that “stand to benefit from either of the two outcomes of the election.”
These are overweight-rated stocks that are viewed as best candidates to outperform in each of the political scenarios.
Trump win beneficiaries include Becton Dickinson ( BDX), and Baker Hughes ( BKR); and Harris win beneficiaries include Knight-Swift Transportation ( KNX), and CF Industries ( CF).
These stocks have daily average option notional volumes of more than $5M, and have a large potential for an upside, measured by the distance from their one-year high and normalized by the three-month realized volatility, according to Barclays analysts.
The stocks also have the lowest volatility scores, measured by the average of the two-year percentile across the three-month at-the-money implied volatility spread, both compared to the realized volatility and the sector volatility. |
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| From: Julius Wong | 9/28/2024 7:37:48 AM | | | | | | U.S. companies with the highest percentage of sales to China have outperformed this week
Sep. 27, 2024 10:43 AM ET
By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
 Klubovy
China's CSI 300 stock index ( ASHR) is up 10.8% week-to-date, and up 19% just in the past five days after China announced fiscal stimulus plans, and rate requirements cuts.
Some U.S. stocks are seeing a clear positive catalyst, with the S&P 500 excluding Technology (NYSEARCA: SPXT) companies with the highest percentage sales to China (about 29% sales to China on average) averaging a strong 9.1% week-to-date return, Wells Fargo equity analyst Christopher P. Harvey said in a note.
Here are the companies:
- Las Vegas Sands ( LVS) – % Sales to China: 63%; WTD return: 15.3%
- Wynn Resorts Ltd. ( WYNN) – % Sales to China: 47%; WTD return: 14.2%
- Albemarle Corp. ( ALB) – % Sales to China: 30%; WTD return: 10.6%
- Estee Lauder ( EL) – % Sales to China: 26%; WTD return: 18.6%
- Tesla Inc. ( TSLA) – % Sales to China: 22%; WTD return: 6.7%
- A. O. Smith Corp. ( AOS) – % Sales to China: 21%; WTD return: 7.7%
- Borgwarner Inc. ( BWA) – % Sales to China: 21%; WTD return: 7.2%
- Agilent Tech Inc. ( A) – % Sales to China: 20%; WTD return: 4.7%
- MGM Resorts International ( MGM) – % Sales to China: 20%; WTD return: 2.7%
- Aptiv Plc ( APTV) – % Sales to China: 20%; WTD return: 3.5%
In addition, the top 10 technology ( XLK) companies with the highest percentage of sales to China also outperformed, with an average of 5.8% week-to-date return. These companies “are often merely manufacturing pass-throughs,” said Harvey.
Here are the companies:
- QUALCOMM Inc. ( QCOM) – % Sales to China: 62%; Period return: 2.2%
- Monolithic Power ( MPWR) – % Sales to China: 51%; Period return: 6%
- KLA Corp. ( KLAC) – % Sales to China: 43%; Period return: 6%
- LAM Research ( LRCX) – % Sales to China: 42%; Period return: 9.6%
- NXP Semiconductors ( NXPI) – % Sales to China: 33%; Period return: 4.5%
- Corning Inc. ( GLW) – % Sales to China: 33%; Period return: 1.8%
- Broadcom Inc. ( AVGO) – % Sales to China: 32%; Period return: 4.1%
- Intel Corp. ( INTC) – % Sales to China: 27%; Period return: 9.5%
- Applied Material ( AMAT) – % Sales to China: 27%; Period return: 9.1%
- ON Semiconductor Corp. ( ON) – % Sales to China: 26%; Period return: 5.4%
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| From: Julius Wong | 9/28/2024 1:39:15 PM | | | | | |
Insider trades: Notable buys and sells by significant shareholders, executives and directors
Sep. 28, 2024 11:03 AM ET
By: Nilanjana Basu, SA News Editor
 Igor Kutyaev
A weekly summary of insider trading highlighting notable buying and selling by investors, directors and executives. The trades have taken place between September 23 and September 27, 2024.
• Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported recent transactions by its Director, Tench Coxe. As disclosed on September 23, 2024, Coxe sold 1M shares of common stock at a price of $119.27 per share, totaling $119.3M. In another filing disclosed by the company, Coxe sold another 1M shares at $116.47 per share, bringing total to $116.5M. Coxe now holds about 4.9M shares of the company.
• Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) said in a filing that its Chief Executive Officer, Hock E. Tan sold 150,000 common shares at $ 172.94 per share for a total transaction value of about $25.9M. Tan now owns about 1.2M shares.
• On 25th September, Christopher Kempczinski, CEO of McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), disclosed through two filings that he sold shares of the company. In one, he sold 11,727 shares at a price of $300.03 per share, totaling $3.5M. The second transaction was of 6,629 shares for a price $300 per share for total value of about $2M. The transaction has adjusted CEO's holdings in the company to 43,256 shares following the sale.
• In a recent transaction, Shantanu Narayen CEO of Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE), sold 25,000 shares of the company's common stock at $521.58 per share, resulting in a total sale value of approximately $13M. Following the transaction, Narayen's direct ownership in the company stands at 357,700 shares.
• Kroger (NYSE: KR) disclosed with SEC on 24th September that its Senior Vice President, Valerie Jabbar sold about 3,000 shares of the company at a price of $ 55.91 per share, totaling $167,730. This brings Jabbar’s total holdings in the company to 74,084 shares.
• In a transaction, Phyllis R. Caldwell, a Director of Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp (NASDAQ: OCSL), expanded his holdings in the company by purchasing its shares. Caldwell acquired 1,000 shares at $16.01 per share for a total of $16,009. Following the transaction, Caldwell's direct holdings have increased to 13,500 shares.
• NewtekOne (NASDAQ: NEWT) Director Richard Salute purchased 500 common shares of the company, according to a recent SEC filing. The price per share was $11.73 per share, totaling an investment of $5,865. Following the transaction, Salute now owns a total of 33,117 shares in NEWT. The CEO of the company, Barry Sloane, also bought 40,134 shares at $11.75 per share totaling $471,560. The transaction also brings Sloane’s holdings to 1.2M.
• Global Partners (NYSE: GLP) revealed in an SEC filing that its general partner Global GP LLC purchased shares valued at nearly $99,524. The transaction, filed on September 24, 2024, involved Global GP acquiring 2,226 shares of common stock at a weighted average price of $44.71 per share. Following this acquisition, Global Partner’s direct ownership in the company has increased to a total of 268,307 shares. |
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| From: Julius Wong | 10/3/2024 5:33:07 PM | | | | | | Oil tanker stocks surge as market awaits potential Israel retaliation against Iran
Oct. 03, 2024 1:23 PM ET
By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
 rgaydos/E+ via Getty Images
Frontline (NYSE: FRO) and other oil tanker stocks are rallying this week as Israel weighs potential retaliation for Iran's missile launch against it, and whether Israel's response will include any of Iran's key energy assets.
Tanker companies, wary of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, have limited the hire of their vessels, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing three vessel owners.
Earnings for Aframax-class ships to deliver 700K-barrel cargoes of U.S. oil to Europe surged 249% this weak to reach nearly $58K/day, the Baltic Exchange reports, Bloomberg said.
The Exchange's overall assessment of Aframax earnings doubled this week to slightly more than $42K/day, Suezmaxes have gained 56% to $36K/day this week, and Very Large Crude Carriers have gained 10%.
Frontline (NYSE: FRO) has gained 8% in the three days since Iraq's missile attack to its highest level since mid-August; among other strong gainers include International Seaways ( INSW), DHT Holdings ( DHT), Nordic American Tankers ( NAT), Scorpio Tankers ( STNG), Teekay Corp. ( TK), Teekay Tankers ( TNK), Danaos ( DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation ( TEN).
The increase in shipping rates is "consistent with the usual seasonal uptick heading into the winter, backed by a strong underlying market with limited supply growth and increasing geopolitical risks," Clarksons analysts wrote. |
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| From: Julius Wong | 10/3/2024 9:31:07 PM | | | | | | Gold and Bitcoin will benefit from a “debasement trade” caused by geopolitical tensions - analyst
Oct. 03, 2024 5:06 PM ET
By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
 koto_feja
Rising geopolitical tensions and the U.S. election are reinforcing a “debasement trade” and favoring both gold ( XAUUSD:CUR) and Bitcoin ( BTC-USD).
Recent geopolitical conflict has shifted attention to alternative asset classes or hedges, such as gold ( XAUUSD:CUR) and Bitcoin ( BTC-USD), said Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, strategist at J.P. Morgan, in a note.
What analysts call the “debasement trade” is a combination of gold demand factors that reflect higher geopolitical uncertainty in clients and their trade. Those include longer-term inflation backdrop, government deficits, and the diversification away from the dollar, among other things.
Gold futures positions show a rising impulse by speculative institutional investors, such as hedge funds, Panigirtzoglou said.
“It is interesting that there has been a similarly bullish impulse in CME bitcoin futures ( BTC-USD) in recent months, but not ethereum futures ( ETH-USD),” he said. “To us this suggest that speculative institutional investors such as hedge funds might see gold and bitcoin as similar assets…both as beneficiaries of the so-called ‘debasement trade’.”
In addition, bitcoin ETFs began seeing inflows again in September, after outflows in August, suggesting that retail investors “might also see gold ( XAUUSD:CUR) and bitcoin ( BTC-USD) in similar fashion.”
Top U.S. bitcoin ETFs by total assets:
- iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT) – $22.9B in assets
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF ( GBTC) – $13.95B in assets
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bicoin Fund ( FBTC) – $11.2B in assets
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ( ARKB) – $2.9B in assets
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust ( BITB) – $2.4B in assets
- Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ( BTC) – $2.1B in assets
- ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF ( BITO) – $1.8B in assets
- 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF ( BITX) – $1.6B in assets
- ARK Next Generation Internet ETF ( ARKW) – $1.4B in assets
Lastly, the upcoming U.S. election is expected to reinforce this “debasement trade.”
A Trump victory would reinforce it through higher tariffs, and an expansionary fiscal policy, said Panigirtzoglou. |
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| To: Kirk © who wrote (7791) | 10/8/2024 7:14:56 AM | | From: Julius Wong | | | | Morgan Stanley’s list of tax loss selling stocks
Oct. 07, 2024 3:28 PM ET
By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
 ipopba/iStock via Getty Images
Morgan Stanley analysts published their list of tax loss selling stocks.
These are stocks in the top quintile of “sell” ratings on Jan. 16, as a proxy for stocks that are favored or widely held. Analysts also screen for stocks that saw at least a 10% drop in their price from mid-January through the end of September.
Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Michael J. Wilson said they limit the downside to 25%, since the stocks with the biggest price drops “tend to show something of a rebound in the fourth quarter.”
Wilson also said that the bulk of underperformance, compared to the market – the compared benchmark is the S&P 1500 (NYSEARCA: SPTM) – for the list happens in October.
“In the month of October, our tax loss selling stocks have tended to underperform the market by an average of 178 basis points and underperform sector and industry group peers by 114, and 110 basis points, respectively, with hit rates of about 55%,” he said.
The tax loss selling stocks underperform the average stock in their sector by 137 basis points in the fourth quarter, with a hit rate of 54%; and underperform the average stock in their industry group by 128 basis points in the fourth quarter, with a hit rate of 54%.
Within communication services ( XLC)
- Iridium Communications Inc. ( IRDM) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: - 20%
Within consumer discretionary ( XLY)
- Aptiv Plc ( APTV) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -11%
- Standard Motor Products Inc. ( SMP) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -15%
- XPEL Inc. ( XPEL) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -16%
- Haverty Furniture Companies Inc. ( HVT) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -19%
- LKQ Corp. ( LKQ) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -16%
- Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. ( HGV) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -12%
- Mister Car Wash Inc. ( MCW) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -22%
Within consumer staples ( XLP)
- Darling Ingredients Inc. ( DAR) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -17%
- Simply Good Foods Co. ( SMPL) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -17%
Within energy ( XLE)
- Chord Energy Corp. ( CHRD) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -15%
- Civitas Resources Inc. ( CIVI) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -21%
- Halliburton Co. ( HAL) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -13%
- Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. ( PTEN) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -24%
- Schlumberger Limited ( SLB) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -13%
- Talos Energy Inc. ( TALO) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -18%
- Valaris Ltd. ( VAL) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -15%
Within financials ( XLF)
- Global Payments Inc. ( GPN) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -21%
Within health care ( XLV)
- Privia Health Group Inc. ( PRVA) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -15%
- Simulations Plus Inc. ( SLP) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -16%
- U.S. Physical Therapy Inc. ( USPH) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -11%
- Biogen Inc. ( BIIB) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -21%
- Dynavax Technologies Corp. ( DVAX) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -21%
- Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. ( NBIX) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -13%
- Perrigo Co. Plc. ( PRGO) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -21%
- Repligen Corp. ( RGEN) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -14%
- West Pharmaceutical Services Inc. ( WST) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -13%
Within industrials ( XLI)
- Alamo Group Inc. ( ALG) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -12%
- Boeing Co. ( BA) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -24%
- Gibraltar Industries Inc. ( ROCK) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -12%
- Insteel Industries Inc. ( IIIN) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -14%
- NV5 Global Inc. ( NVEE) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -10%
Information technology ( XLK)
- Photronics Inc. ( PLAB) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -16%
- Adobe Inc. ( ADBE) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -13%
Materials ( XLB)
- Arch Resources Inc. Class A ( ARCH) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -17%
- Quaker Houghton ( KWR) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -14%
- Stepan Co. ( SCL) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -12%
Real estate ( XLRE)
- Armada Hoffler Properties Inc. ( AHH) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -11%
- Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. ( HST) – Return from mid-Jan through Sept month-end: -11%
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