To: Kirk © who wrote (7778) | 9/23/2024 2:09:10 PM | From: Julius Wong | | | Stocks that are expected to benefit from lower fed funds rate and a softer labor market
Sep. 23, 2024 11:20 AM ET By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
shapecharge
High labor cost stocks are benefiting from a rebalanced labor market and deceleration in wage growth.
The fed funds rate was lowered by 50 basis points on Wednesday to 4.75-5%, and the labor market has cooled down from overheated levels.
Goldman Sachs analysts said that labor costs account for 12% of sales for the aggregate S&P 500 ( SP500) and 14% of sales for the median stock.
“A 100 basis points change in labor costs would impact S&P 500 ( SP500) EPS by 0.7%, all else equal,” wrote David J. Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist.
High labor costs stocks have a 10-percentage-point outperformance over low labor cost stocks since May. This suggests that investors are confident that wage pressures on earnings will continue to subside, Kostin said.
Industrials ( XLI) have the highest implied labor costs as a percentage of revenue at 20%; energy ( XLE) has the lowest at 5%.
This is Goldman Sachs’ basket of high labor cost stocks:
Communication services
- Interpublic Group of Companies ( IPG) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 43%
- Electronic Arts ( EA) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 27%
- Omnicom Group Inc. ( OMC) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 27%
- Meta Platforms ( META) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 19%
Consumer discretionary
- Hilton Worldwide Holding ( HLT) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 84%
- Marriott International ( MAR) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 78%
- Darden Restaurants ( DRI) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 37%
- Wynn Resorts Limited ( WYNN) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 23%
- O’Reilly Automotive ( ORLY) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 20%
Consumer staples
- PepsiCo Inc. ( PEP) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 18%
- Estee Lauder Companies ( EL) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 13%
- Molson Coors Beverage ( TAP) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 11%
Energy
- SLB ( SLB) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 40%
- Halliburton ( HAL) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 18%
Financials
- Arthur J. Gallagher ( AJG) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 33%
- Aon Plc ( AON) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 33%
- Moody’s Corp. ( MCO) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 30%
- Jack Henry & Associates ( JKHY) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 29%
- Fidelity National Information Services ( FIS) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 27%
- PNC Financial Services Group ( PNC) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 27%
- Bank of America ( BAC) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 26%
Health care
- IQVIA Holdings Inc. ( IQV) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 53%
- DaVita Inc. ( DVA) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 39%
- Abbott Laboratories ( ABT) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 38%
- Quest Diagnostics ( DGX) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 35%
- Universal Health Services ( UHS) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 34%
- Labcorp Holdings ( LH) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 34%
- Industrials
- Dayforce Inc. ( DAY) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 41%
- Rollins Inc. ( ROL) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 35%
- Paycom Software ( PAYC) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 34%
- Jacobs Solutions ( J) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 34%
Information technology
- Cognizant Tech Solutions ( CTSH) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 73%
- Accenture Plc ( ACN) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 56%
- ServiceNow Inc. ( NOW) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 54%
- CrowdStike Holdings ( CRWD) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 51%
- EPAM Systems Inc. ( EPAM) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 44%
- Palo Alto Networks ( PANW) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 42%
- Gartner Inc. ( IT) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 41%
- Autodesk ( ADSK) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 38%
- F5 Inc. ( FFIV) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 33%
- NetApp Inc. ( NTAP) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 29%
- Trimble Inc. ( TRMB) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 28%
- Teradyne Inc. ( TER) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 24%
- Keysight Technologies ( KEYS) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 23%
- Intel Corp. ( INTC) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 23%
- Motorola Solutions ( MSI) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 19%
- Cisco Systems Inc. ( CSCO) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 18%
Materials
- Newmont Corp. ( NEM) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 19%
Real estate
- CBRE Group Inc. ( CBRE) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 29%
Utilities
- NiSource Inc. ( NI) – Implied labor cost as a percentage of revenue: 22%
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From: Julius Wong | 9/23/2024 7:41:11 PM | | | | T-Mobile US raises dividend by 35.4% to $0.88, announces buyback
Sep. 18, 2024 1:51 PM ET By: Gaurav Batavia, SA News Editor
- T-Mobile US (NASDAQ: TMUS) declares $0.88/share quarterly dividend, 35.4% increase from prior dividend of $0.65.
- Forward yield 1.77%
- Payable Dec. 12; for shareholders of record Nov. 27; ex-div Nov. 27.
- The company also announces up to $50 billion in stockholder returns through dividends and share repurchases
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From: Julius Wong | 9/24/2024 7:25:06 AM | | | | Overweight quality stocks with positive EPS revisions - MS
Sep. 23, 2024 4:17 PM ET By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images
Morgan Stanley analysts listed quality stocks with positive EPS revisions and overweight rating, as they believe that the group is expected to perform well in the near-term.
“The labor data will be the most important factor in terms of how equities trade through year-end,” wrote Strategist Michael J. Wilson. “A drop in the unemployment rate and above consensus payroll data (without downward revisions) is likely the most risk-on signal for equities in the fourth quarter.”
He said that a drop in the unemployment rate can counter seasonal weakness in earnings revisions and election-related volatility, but a rise in the unemployment rate (above 4.3%) alongside weak payrolls (under 100,000) will cause risk-off price action.
The following stocks are members of the Russell 1000 (NYSEARCA: IWF), have positive one-month earnings revision, above-median quality composite score vs. their sector peers, and are rated overweight.
- Schlumberger Ltd ( SLB)
- Baker Hughes Co. ( BKR)
- NOV Inc. ( NOV)
- Devon Energy ( DVN)
- Cheniere Energy ( LNG)
- The Sherwin-Williams ( SHW)
- Linde Plc ( LIN)
- Eastman Chemical Co. ( EMN)
- Ball Corp. ( BALL)
- Curtiss-Wright ( CW)
- Northrop Grumman Corp. ( NOC)
- Trane Technologies ( TT)
- Cummins Inc. ( CMI)
- Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp. ( WAB)
- TransUnion ( TRU)
- Borg Warner ( BWA)
- Hasbro ( HAS)
- Skechers USA ( SKX)
- Doordash Inc. ( DASH)
- Amazon ( AMZN)
- GAP Inc. ( GAP)
- TJX Co. ( TJX)
- Burlington Stores ( BURL)
- Dicks Sporting Goods ( DKS)
- Walmart Inc. ( WMT)
- Colgate-Palmolive Co. ( CL)
- Procter & Gamble ( PG)
- AbbVie Inc. ( ABBV)
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals ( REGN)
- Biogen Inc. ( BIIB)
- Zoetis Inc. ( ZTS)
- IQVIA Holdings Inc. ( IQV)
- Avantor Inc. ( AVTR)
- M&T Bank Corp. ( MTB)
- Huntington Bancshares Inc. ( HBAN)
- Bank of America ( BAC)
- Wells Fargo & Co. ( WFC)
- East West Bancorp ( EWBC)
- Ally Financial ( ALLY)
- Progressive Corp. ( PGR)
- Allstate ( ALL)
- Arch Capital Group ( ACGL)
- MetLife Inc. ( MET)
- MongoDB Inc. ( MDB)
- HubSpot Inc. ( HUBS)
- Unity Software Inc. ( U)
- Salesforce Inc. ( CRM)
- ServiceNow ( NOW)
- Fortinet Inc. ( FTNT)
- Arista Networks ( ANET)
- Apple Inc. ( AAPL)
- Qorvo Inc. ( QRVO)
- Nvidia Corp. ( NVDA)
- T-Mobile US Inc. ( TMUS)
- Trade Desk Inc. ( TTD)
- Spotify Technology ( SPOT)
- Netflix Inc. ( NFLX)
- Warner Music Group ( WMG)
- Alphabet Inc. Class A ( GOOGL)
- Meta Platforms ( META)
- FirstEnergy Corp. ( FE)
- Atmos Energy ( ATO)
- Prologis Inc. ( PLD)
- Welltower Inc. ( WELL)
- Agree Realty ( ADC)
- Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc. ( GLPI)
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From: Julius Wong | 9/25/2024 9:57:26 PM | | | | Stocks that are set to benefit from either Harris or Trump winning scenarios – Barclays
Sep. 25, 2024 3:04 PM ET By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
da-kuk
The upcoming U.S. presidential election is a top concern for U.S. equities for the rest of the year, according to Barclays analysts.
Analysts published a list of stocks that “stand to benefit from either of the two outcomes of the election.”
These are overweight-rated stocks that are viewed as best candidates to outperform in each of the political scenarios.
Trump win beneficiaries include Becton Dickinson ( BDX), and Baker Hughes ( BKR); and Harris win beneficiaries include Knight-Swift Transportation ( KNX), and CF Industries ( CF).
These stocks have daily average option notional volumes of more than $5M, and have a large potential for an upside, measured by the distance from their one-year high and normalized by the three-month realized volatility, according to Barclays analysts.
The stocks also have the lowest volatility scores, measured by the average of the two-year percentile across the three-month at-the-money implied volatility spread, both compared to the realized volatility and the sector volatility. |
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From: Julius Wong | 9/28/2024 7:37:48 AM | | | | U.S. companies with the highest percentage of sales to China have outperformed this week
Sep. 27, 2024 10:43 AM ET By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
Klubovy
China's CSI 300 stock index ( ASHR) is up 10.8% week-to-date, and up 19% just in the past five days after China announced fiscal stimulus plans, and rate requirements cuts.
Some U.S. stocks are seeing a clear positive catalyst, with the S&P 500 excluding Technology (NYSEARCA: SPXT) companies with the highest percentage sales to China (about 29% sales to China on average) averaging a strong 9.1% week-to-date return, Wells Fargo equity analyst Christopher P. Harvey said in a note.
Here are the companies:
- Las Vegas Sands ( LVS) – % Sales to China: 63%; WTD return: 15.3%
- Wynn Resorts Ltd. ( WYNN) – % Sales to China: 47%; WTD return: 14.2%
- Albemarle Corp. ( ALB) – % Sales to China: 30%; WTD return: 10.6%
- Estee Lauder ( EL) – % Sales to China: 26%; WTD return: 18.6%
- Tesla Inc. ( TSLA) – % Sales to China: 22%; WTD return: 6.7%
- A. O. Smith Corp. ( AOS) – % Sales to China: 21%; WTD return: 7.7%
- Borgwarner Inc. ( BWA) – % Sales to China: 21%; WTD return: 7.2%
- Agilent Tech Inc. ( A) – % Sales to China: 20%; WTD return: 4.7%
- MGM Resorts International ( MGM) – % Sales to China: 20%; WTD return: 2.7%
- Aptiv Plc ( APTV) – % Sales to China: 20%; WTD return: 3.5%
In addition, the top 10 technology ( XLK) companies with the highest percentage of sales to China also outperformed, with an average of 5.8% week-to-date return. These companies “are often merely manufacturing pass-throughs,” said Harvey.
Here are the companies:
- QUALCOMM Inc. ( QCOM) – % Sales to China: 62%; Period return: 2.2%
- Monolithic Power ( MPWR) – % Sales to China: 51%; Period return: 6%
- KLA Corp. ( KLAC) – % Sales to China: 43%; Period return: 6%
- LAM Research ( LRCX) – % Sales to China: 42%; Period return: 9.6%
- NXP Semiconductors ( NXPI) – % Sales to China: 33%; Period return: 4.5%
- Corning Inc. ( GLW) – % Sales to China: 33%; Period return: 1.8%
- Broadcom Inc. ( AVGO) – % Sales to China: 32%; Period return: 4.1%
- Intel Corp. ( INTC) – % Sales to China: 27%; Period return: 9.5%
- Applied Material ( AMAT) – % Sales to China: 27%; Period return: 9.1%
- ON Semiconductor Corp. ( ON) – % Sales to China: 26%; Period return: 5.4%
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From: Julius Wong | 9/28/2024 1:39:15 PM | | | | Insider trades: Notable buys and sells by significant shareholders, executives and directors
Sep. 28, 2024 11:03 AM ET By: Nilanjana Basu, SA News Editor
Igor Kutyaev
A weekly summary of insider trading highlighting notable buying and selling by investors, directors and executives. The trades have taken place between September 23 and September 27, 2024.
• Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported recent transactions by its Director, Tench Coxe. As disclosed on September 23, 2024, Coxe sold 1M shares of common stock at a price of $119.27 per share, totaling $119.3M. In another filing disclosed by the company, Coxe sold another 1M shares at $116.47 per share, bringing total to $116.5M. Coxe now holds about 4.9M shares of the company.
• Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) said in a filing that its Chief Executive Officer, Hock E. Tan sold 150,000 common shares at $ 172.94 per share for a total transaction value of about $25.9M. Tan now owns about 1.2M shares.
• On 25th September, Christopher Kempczinski, CEO of McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), disclosed through two filings that he sold shares of the company. In one, he sold 11,727 shares at a price of $300.03 per share, totaling $3.5M. The second transaction was of 6,629 shares for a price $300 per share for total value of about $2M. The transaction has adjusted CEO's holdings in the company to 43,256 shares following the sale.
• In a recent transaction, Shantanu Narayen CEO of Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE), sold 25,000 shares of the company's common stock at $521.58 per share, resulting in a total sale value of approximately $13M. Following the transaction, Narayen's direct ownership in the company stands at 357,700 shares.
• Kroger (NYSE: KR) disclosed with SEC on 24th September that its Senior Vice President, Valerie Jabbar sold about 3,000 shares of the company at a price of $ 55.91 per share, totaling $167,730. This brings Jabbar’s total holdings in the company to 74,084 shares.
• In a transaction, Phyllis R. Caldwell, a Director of Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp (NASDAQ: OCSL), expanded his holdings in the company by purchasing its shares. Caldwell acquired 1,000 shares at $16.01 per share for a total of $16,009. Following the transaction, Caldwell's direct holdings have increased to 13,500 shares.
• NewtekOne (NASDAQ: NEWT) Director Richard Salute purchased 500 common shares of the company, according to a recent SEC filing. The price per share was $11.73 per share, totaling an investment of $5,865. Following the transaction, Salute now owns a total of 33,117 shares in NEWT. The CEO of the company, Barry Sloane, also bought 40,134 shares at $11.75 per share totaling $471,560. The transaction also brings Sloane’s holdings to 1.2M.
• Global Partners (NYSE: GLP) revealed in an SEC filing that its general partner Global GP LLC purchased shares valued at nearly $99,524. The transaction, filed on September 24, 2024, involved Global GP acquiring 2,226 shares of common stock at a weighted average price of $44.71 per share. Following this acquisition, Global Partner’s direct ownership in the company has increased to a total of 268,307 shares. |
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From: Julius Wong | 10/3/2024 5:33:07 PM | | | | Oil tanker stocks surge as market awaits potential Israel retaliation against Iran
Oct. 03, 2024 1:23 PM ET By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
rgaydos/E+ via Getty Images
Frontline (NYSE: FRO) and other oil tanker stocks are rallying this week as Israel weighs potential retaliation for Iran's missile launch against it, and whether Israel's response will include any of Iran's key energy assets.
Tanker companies, wary of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, have limited the hire of their vessels, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing three vessel owners.
Earnings for Aframax-class ships to deliver 700K-barrel cargoes of U.S. oil to Europe surged 249% this weak to reach nearly $58K/day, the Baltic Exchange reports, Bloomberg said.
The Exchange's overall assessment of Aframax earnings doubled this week to slightly more than $42K/day, Suezmaxes have gained 56% to $36K/day this week, and Very Large Crude Carriers have gained 10%.
Frontline (NYSE: FRO) has gained 8% in the three days since Iraq's missile attack to its highest level since mid-August; among other strong gainers include International Seaways ( INSW), DHT Holdings ( DHT), Nordic American Tankers ( NAT), Scorpio Tankers ( STNG), Teekay Corp. ( TK), Teekay Tankers ( TNK), Danaos ( DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation ( TEN).
The increase in shipping rates is "consistent with the usual seasonal uptick heading into the winter, backed by a strong underlying market with limited supply growth and increasing geopolitical risks," Clarksons analysts wrote. |
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