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From: Julius Wong7/3/2022 9:49:06 AM
1 Recommendation   of 7157
Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead

Jul. 03, 2022 7:21 AM ET 1 Comment3 Likes

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Stitcher and Spotify.

Economic reports in the week ahead

Investors are likely to see some more early warnings shots next week on Q2 earnings reports and back-half guidance revisions to follow on the recent updates from General Motors ( GM), Kohl's ( KSS), and Micron ( MU) that rattled their respective sectors. Watch the airline sector in particular, with monthly traffic reports likely to include some new forecasts from major players like Southwest Airlines ( LUV), American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL), and Delta Air Lines ( DAL). The economic calendar includes the factory orders report on July 5, the JOLTS job openings release on July 6, and the employment report on July 8. The U.S. economy is anticipated to have added 250K jobs in June, which is a pace of job additions that is close to the pre-pandemic level. FOMC minutes will also be released next week and there will be a smattering of Fed speakers as the guessing on the central bank's tightrope walk with inflation and interest rates continues.

Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, July 6 - Simulations Plus (NASDAQ: SLP).

Earnings spotlight: Thursday, July 7 - Levi Strauss (NYSE: LEVI), Helen of Troy (NASDAQ: HELE), and WD-40 Company ( WDFC).

IPO watch: Analyst ratings will start on Phoenix Motor (NASDAQ: PEV) following the expiration of the quiet period. IPO lockup expirations hit on July 6 for Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AMLX), CinCor Pharma (NASDAQ: CINC), Vigil Neuroscience ( VIGL), and Hour Loop (NASDAQ: HOUR). CinCor is the only one of the four trading above its IPO pricing level.

Dividend watch: Companies forecast to boost their quarterly dividend payout include John B Sanfilippo ( JBSS) to $0.75 from $0.70, Essential Utilities (NYSE: WTRG) to $0.2858 from $0.2682, J.M. Smucker ( SJM) to $1.05 from $0.99, and Clorox (NYSE: CLX) to $1.20 from $1.16.

Jobs report: The U.S. jobs report for June is expected to show 250K jobs were added to the economy during the month and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%. Bank of America is on the high side of the estimates with a NFP forecast for 325K jobs adds after noting that its most recent data on the labor market leading up to the report pointed to ongoing strength. The ongoing strength of labor demand is anticipated to translate into another month of solid wage growth. The firm sees a third consecutive monthly increase and wages being reported at a level 5.0% higher than a year ago.

Interest rate watch: Traders will pore over the minutes from the last FOMC meeting as they assess the trajectory of interest rate increases. Bank of America's latest forecast is for the Fed to deliver another 75 point rate hike at the July meeting, followed by a 50 point increase in September. Following that, the firm expects the Fed to move in more traditional 25 point increments. "Based on the outcome of the June FOMC meeting, including the June SEPs, we suspect that most FOMC participants have a similar rate path in mind, and we will look for signs of confirmation in the June minutes," previewed BofA.

Levi Strauss earnings preview: Levi Strauss ( LEVI) reports earnings, with analysts projecting revenue of $1.43B and EPS of $0.23 will be reported. Following the sharp drop in share price, Levi Strauss ( LEVI) was recently added to Bank of America's list of top SMID cap ideas list for the second half. The firm thinks the stock will continue to benefit from the casualization/denim cycle as the apparel seller continues to gain market share position. "Furthermore, from a margin perspective, we expect outsized growth from margin accretive categories such as women’s, tops, international, and Beyond Yoga will help offset margin headwinds from a normalization in promotional activity," updated BofA.

Corporate events: Ford (NYSE: F) will report monthly U.S. sales on July 5. Investors will be watching for the tally of all-electric F-150 Lightnings that were moved. Shareholders with Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp III (NASDAQ: DNAC) will meet on July 6 to vote on the deal to take ProKidney public in a SPAC deal. Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp III has Chamath Palihapitiya as a backer. On July 7, Advent Technologies Holdings (NASDAQ: ADN) will host a virtual Investor Day and Cidara Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CDTX) will host a virtual research and development day. The twice-delayed Spirit Airlines ( SAVE) shareholder vote on the planned sale to Frontier ( ULCC) is set for July 8. Watch JetBlue Airways ( JBLU) as well as the drama plays out. Read more about the events next week that could impact shares prices in Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch.

Box office preview: The fifth installment in the Universal ( CMCSA) Despicable Me/Minions franchise will roll into theaters this weekend, with Minions: The Rise of Gru expected to lead the box office. Romance film Mr. Malcolm's List from Bleecker Street will also debut, while holdovers Top Gun: Maverick and Elvis are expected to do well over the three-day holiday. As of last weekend, the U.S. box office haul was up 263% from last year to $3.63B in ticket sales. "Even with a third-less content, summer 2022 is rolling along as audiences and theaters have found their cinematic groove," noted Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock. Notably, Maverick has moved up to become the No. 14-grossing domestic film of all time, with its $534.5M total passing Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

Barron's mentions: Income investing makes the cover this week. Yields across the board have pushed higher as the market weakness and the Fed's battle with inflation has sent investors scrambling. Some of the stocks of interest to dividend hunters mentioned by the publication include Alerian MLP (NYSEARCA: AMLP), Kayne Anderson NextGen Energy & Infrastructure ( KMF), Salient Midstream & MLP (NYSE: SMM), Verizon ( VZ), AT&T ( T), JPMorgan Chase ( JPM), Goldman Sachs Group ( GS), Morgan Stanley ( MS), and Wells Fargo ( WFC). Opportunities with junk bonds, REITs, and TIPS are also broken down in the new higher-rate environment. "It’s still a challenging macro backdrop, given high inflation, but most of that is priced into the market," noted Nuveen Chief Investment Officer Anders Persson. "The yield profile is a lot more interesting," he added.

Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, The Hollywood Reporter

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From: Julius Wong7/5/2022 7:14:35 AM
2 Recommendations   of 7157
Too Late to Sell, Too Early to Buy…

Right now across the country brokers and advisors are getting phone calls from their clients: “I need to sell some stock.”


In order to feel better about this market/economy/Fed/whatever.”

Market pressure eventually leads to these concerns. Year-to-date, SPX is down 22.9%, the Russell 2000 has fallen 23.1%, while the Nasdaq has dropped 31.8%. The most damage has taken place in the most speculative names. It is that funny part of the cycle, and one of the most challenging.

The problem: We are at the “Tween” portion of the market.

If you are an active trader looking to manage your risk exposure, well it’s probably too late to be a broad seller of stocks. Especially if you FOMO’d yourself into the wilder side of the Meme/WFH/FAANMG equities.

And if you are a long-term investor, how much more do you believe we will fall? Enough to make up for the tax hit you will take as a seller here after the huge run-up of 21% and 28% we saw in 2020-21?

To be a seller here means you believe 3 things:

1. The S&P will drop at least 25-30% from here, on top of down -23% ytd;

2. Your capital gains taxes will be less than the rest of the drop;

3. You will be able to get back in and at or near the lows.

Color me skeptical that the average investor has calculated any of the above and can execute all three flawlessly.

As to Bonds, if you shortened your duration earlier in the year, you did not avoid drawdowns, but it is somewhat less painful; TIPs and Munis have been doing much better than corporates and long-dated Treasuries. (We own all of them). But with bonds down double digits along with equities for the first time since 1981, there were very few places to hide.

I have little opinion on commodities, cryptos, and currencies – they trade differently than the asset classes that have intrinsic value.

This is a “Tween market” and it is where some people change their minds. It’s been almost 6 months, so investors are recognizing this isn’t a short BTFD pullback. The Cavalry that came to the rescue in March of 2020 has hung up their spurs. In their place, a somewhat panicky Federal Reserve that is belatedly giving up its belief that inflation is transitory, ironically as it nears its peak.

Instead of the Cavalry riding to save the day, a team of technocrats wearing white coats are sedating – at risk of possibly euthanizing – the patient. Will the whitecoats raise rates high enough to slow down demand and put the brakes on inflation? Will the patient survive, or will we witness an anti-inflationary mercy killing? One day, we may look upon any 75 bps hike as “Volker Lite.”

Regardless, here we are.

The contrarian in me is just starting to get that itch to buy here, but it’s not a full-throated “Gotta gotta gotta get some” like 2020 or 2009. Instead, my inner logician senses it’s probably too early.

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From: Julius Wong7/8/2022 7:31:01 AM
1 Recommendation   of 7157
Tracking Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates 13F Portfolio - Q1 2022 Update



Bridgewater Associates' 13F portfolio value increased ~45% from ~$17.20B to ~$24.81B this quarter.
They more than doubled their stakes in emerging market ETFs this quarter.
The top three individual stock positions are Procter & Gamble, Alibaba Group Holding, and Johnson & Johnson and they add up to ~11% of the portfolio.

Kimberly White

This article is first in a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Bridgewater Associates' 13F portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on their regulatory 13F Form filed on 5/13/2022.

Bridgewater Associates was founded by Ray Dalio in 1975. It is one of the largest hedge funds in the world and is focused on Global Macro as an investing theme. Over the years, they have pioneered several related strategies: absolute return, risk parity, alpha overlay, etc. One distinct factor that separates them from most other hedge funds is that they only accept institutional money rather than taking investments from accredited investors who can meet their minimums.

Assets Under Management (AuM) is at around $140B. The 13F portfolio is less than ~20% of their total AUM. This quarter, the 13F portfolio value increased from $17.20B to $24.81B. The holdings are diversified with recent reports showing around 1000 different stakes. Around 37 of them are significantly large (more than ~0.5% of the 13F portfolio) and they are the focus of this article. The top three individual stock positions are at ~11% while the top five holdings are close to ~16% of the 13F assets: Procter & Gamble, Alibaba Group Holdings, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, and PepsiCo.

Note 1: The firm uses asset class diversification among uncorrelated positions to achieve absolute returns. As such the stakes can be on or against debt, equity, and other markets around the world. To learn more about their unique investment philosophy, check out their video channel and Ray Dalio's books.

Note 2: It was reported last month that Bridgewater Associates had built a $10.5B bet against European businesses including ASML Holding ( ASML), TotalEnergies SE ( TTE), Sanofi ( SNY), and SAP SE ( SAP).

New Stakes:

Medtronic plc ( MDT): MDT is a 0.84% of the portfolio position established this quarter at prices between ~$101 and ~$112 and the stock currently trades below that range at $89.50.

Stake Increases:

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF ( VWO): VWO is currently the largest 13F position at 4.22% of the portfolio. It was first purchased in 2009. The position size peaked at over 115M shares in 2014. This is compared to 22.72M shares currently. Recent activity follows. 2020 saw a ~45% selling at prices between ~$31 and ~$50 while in Q3 2021 there was a stake doubling at prices between ~$49 and ~$53. Last quarter saw a ~30% selling while this quarter there was a similar increase. VWO currently trades at $41.64.

Procter & Gamble ( PG) and Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ)
: PG is a large (top three) 4.20% of the portfolio stake. It was established in H2 2020 at prices between ~$120 and ~$144. H1 2021 saw a ~80% stake increase at prices between ~$124 and ~$139. Last two quarters also saw a ~45% increase at prices between ~$139 and ~$164. The stock currently trades at ~$146. The 3.10% JNJ stake was a small position in their first 13F filing in Q4 2005. The stake has wavered. The current position was built during the four quarters through Q2 2021 at prices between ~$137 and ~$171. Last two quarters have seen a ~55% stake increase at prices between ~$155 and ~$180. The stock currently trades at ~$179.

iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ( IEMG) and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ( EEM): The large (top three) 3.57% IEMG stake was first purchased in 2016. The position size peaked at over 15M shares in 2017. The stake had since been sold down. Recent activity follows. Q3 2021 saw a ~225% stake increase at prices between ~$61 and ~$67. That was followed with a stake doubling this quarter at prices between ~$51 and ~$62. IEMG currently trades at ~$49. The large (top five) 3.57% EEM position is a long-term stake that has been in the portfolio since 2010. The sizing peaked at close to 80M shares by 2014. Since then, the stake has wavered. Recent activity follows. Q1 2021 saw the position sold down to a minutely small stake at prices between ~$52 and ~$58. Next two quarters saw the position rebuilt at prices between ~$50 and ~$56. Last quarter saw a ~55% selling at prices between ~$47 and ~$53 while this quarter there was a stake doubling at prices between ~$41.50 and ~$51. EEM is currently at ~$40.

Alibaba Group Holding ( BABA): The fairly large 3.28% BABA stake was established in the 2018-2020 timeframe at prices between ~$132 and ~$310. Q3 2021 saw a ~130% stake increase at prices between ~$145 and ~$220. Last two quarters have seen another similar increase at prices between ~$77 and ~$178. The stock currently trades at ~$122.

Coca-Cola ( KO) and PepsiCo ( PEP): The four quarters through Q2 2021 saw a ~8.2M shares KO stake built at prices between ~$45 and ~$56. That was followed with a ~40% stake increase this quarter at prices between ~$58 and ~$63. The stock currently trades at $62.91, and the stake is fairly large at ~3% of the portfolio. PEP built up occurred in a similar fashion. The four quarters through Q2 2021 saw a 2.7M shares stake built at prices between ~$129 and ~$148. That was followed with a ~55% stake increase over the last two quarters at prices between ~$150 and ~$176. The stock is now at ~$170 and the stake is at 2.81% of the portfolio.

Note: Much smaller stakes in these two positions were part of the portfolio during the decade through 2016.

Costco Wholesale ( COST), Target Corp. ( TGT), and Walmart ( WMT): These three stakes were built from H2 2020. The 2.76% of the portfolio COST stake was built during the four quarters through Q2 2021 at prices between ~$305 and ~$395 and the stock currently trades at ~$495. There was a ~30% stake increase this quarter at prices between ~$477 and ~$577. TGT is a 1.13% of the portfolio stake established in H2 2020 at prices between ~$119 and ~$180. Q2 2021 saw a ~55% stake increase at prices between ~$200 and ~$245. That was followed with a ~25% increase this quarter at prices between ~$190 and ~$234. The stock currently trades at ~$150. The 2.42% WMT position was purchased during the four quarters through Q2 2021 at prices between ~$119 and ~$152. Q4 2021 saw the stake sold down by ~45% at prices between ~$135 and ~$151. This quarter saw a similar increase at around the same price range. The stock is now at ~$125.

McDonald's Corp ( MCD) and Starbucks Corp. ( SBUX): MCD is a 2.30% of the portfolio position first built during the four quarters through Q2 2021 at prices between ~$184 and ~$237. Last two quarters saw another ~55% stake increase at prices between ~$222 and ~$270. The stock is now at ~$253. The 1.21% SBUX stake was built similarly at prices between ~$74 and ~$118. Last two quarters saw another ~45% stake increase at prices between ~$79 and ~$117. The stock currently trades at $79.24.

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF ( IVV): A fairly large stake in IVV was built during the 2017-2018 timeframe at prices between ~$245 and ~$295. It was sold down during the two quarters through Q1 2021 at prices between ~$325 and ~$400. Last four quarters have seen the stake rebuilt at prices between ~$400 and ~$480. The stock is now at ~$391 and the stake is at ~2% of the portfolio.

Note: a much smaller stake in IVV was part of the portfolio during the 2012-16 timeframe.

Abbott Laboratories ( ABT)
, Baidu Inc. ( BIDU), Becton, Dickinson ( BDX), Colgate- Palmolive ( CL), Dollar General ( DG), Edwards Lifesciences ( EW), Estee Lauder ( EL), Pfizer Inc. ( PFE), Pinduoduo Inc. ( PDD), and Stryker Corp. ( SYK): These small (less than ~1.5% of the portfolio each) stakes were increased this quarter.

Chipotle Mexican Grill ( CMG), iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF ( LQD), iShares China Large-Cap ETF ( FXI), and Kimberley-Clark ( KMB), NIO Inc. ( NIO): These very small (less than ~0.5% of the portfolio each) positions were increased this quarter.

Stake Decreases:iShares Gold Trust ( IAU) and SPDR Gold Trust ETF ( GLD): These two positions were first built in 2017. A fairly large IAU stake was built in 2017 at an average price of ~$25 per share. There was a roughly one-third stake increase in 2020 at prices between ~$29 and ~$39. Last five quarters have seen the position sold down by ~80% at prices between ~$32 and ~$38. IAU now goes for ~$33 and the stake is now small at 0.50% of the portfolio. A larger stake in GLD was built in 2017 at prices between ~$110 and ~$128. 2020 saw a ~25% selling at prices between ~$140 and ~$191. That was followed with a ~40% selling next quarter at prices between ~$159 and ~$178. Q3 2021 saw a similar increase at prices between ~$162 and ~$171. The stock currently trades at $162, and the stake is at 1.54% of the portfolio. Last two quarters have seen minor trimming.

Home Depot ( HD), Intuitive Surgical ( ISRG), iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF ( EWT), and ( JD): These very small (less than ~0.65% of the portfolio each) positions were reduced during the quarter.

Kept Steady:

SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY): A small position in SPY was first established in Q1 2006. An amended filing in Q4 2007 showed a huge 40% of the 13F portfolio stake (~12M shares) established in the high 140s price-range. The position size peaked at ~21M shares by 2011. The decade through 2020 had seen the position reduced to 3.7M shares through minor selling in most quarters. H1 2021 saw another ~45% reduction at prices between ~$370 and ~$430. SPY now trades at ~$389 and it is still a top-five stake at 3.43% of the portfolio. Last three quarters have also seen minor trimming.

The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Bridgewater Associates' 13F holdings in Q1 2022:

Ray Dalio - Bridgewater Associates' Q1 2022 13F Report Q/Q Comparison (John Vincent (author))

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From: Julius Wong7/9/2022 7:37:56 AM
1 Recommendation   of 7157
UBS outlines major beneficiaries should China tariffs be taken off

Jul. 06, 2022 12:20 PM ET AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), ORLY, AAP HD, LOW, FIVE, EYE, COST, WMT, DKS, ASO, TGT, BBY, BBBY, WSM, RH, W, FND, DLTR, DGBy: Kevin P. Curran, SA News Editor 21 Comments


In a broad-ranging review of retail, UBS advised that auto parts, electronics, and furniture retailers are likely to get the biggest boost from a potential shift in tariff policy from the Biden administration.

On the fourth anniversary of the initial set of China tariffs under the Trump administration on July 6, rumors of potential changes to China tariff strategy are increasingly percolating through news and social media. Early on Wednesday, former deputy director at the National Economic Council Clete Williams said a relief package on the trade barriers is likely to come “ pretty soon”.

Ahead of this expected action, a team of analysts at UBS compiled a list of companies across the retail space that are likely to be most or least impacted by changes.

The retail space was homed in on based upon its less strategic tilt and the likelihood that it would be first in line for tariff amendments should they come to fruition. The bank’s analysts suggested categories like apparel, home furnishings, and sporting goods are likely to be least controversial

“We believe that retailers such as Best Buy ( BBY), Bed Bath & Beyond ( BBBY), and Williams-Sonoma ( WSM) likely source at least 35% of their goods from China (indirectly and directly),” the research report noted. “These stand to be beneficiaries of any changes.”

In line with Williams-Sonoma ( WSM), both RH ( RH), Wayfair ( W), and Floor & Decor Holdings ( FND) are expected to benefit as each sources 30% or more of their products from China. However, the research suggested that both Floor & Decor ( FND) and Wayfair ( W) will have trouble hanging on to elevated prices that could keep the benefit from tariff shifts in-house.

Yet, among the stocks pinpointed as the largest beneficiaries were auto parts retailers like Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP), AutoZone (NYSE: AZO), and O’Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY). The research suggested that the rollback of tariffs would ease pressures on the 20-40% of goods sourced from the region while the retailers likely maintain elevated prices for consumers.

Elsewhere, Dollar Tree ( DLTR) is likely to benefit given it sources about 30% of its products from China. Its recent upping of price to $1.25 is likely to remain sticky in the bank’s view, adding tariff savings directly to the bottom line. Dollar General ( DG), by contrast, is estimated to source only 5% of its product from China.

Below is a sample of companies with significant China product exposure outlined by the bank:


% Product from China

Home Depot ( HD)15%
Lowe's ( LOW)15%
Five Below ( FIVE)15%
National Vision Holdings ( EYE)15%
Advance Auto Parts ( AAP)20%
Costco ( COST)20%
Walmart ( WMT)20%
Dick's Sporting Goods ( DKS)25%
Academy Sports & Outdoor ( ASO)25%
Target ( TGT)25%
AutoZone ( AZO)30%
O'Reilly Automotive ( ORLY)30%
Dollar Tree ( DLTR)30%
Floor & Decor ( FND)30%
RH ( RH)34%
Williams Sonoma ( WSM)35%
Bed Bath & Beyond ( BBBY)40%
Wayfair ( W)40%
Best Buy ( BBY)50%

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From: Julius Wong7/10/2022 7:37:49 AM
2 Recommendations   of 7157
Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead

Jul. 10, 2022 7:28 AM ET 1 Comment1 Like

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Stitcher and Spotify.

Economic reports in the week ahead

The earnings season fires off with big reports due out from PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP), Delta Air Lines ( DAL), and Taiwan Semiconductor ( TSM) before a wave of reports from major banks like JPMorgan Chase ( JPM), Wells Fargo ( WFC), U.S. Bancorp ( USB), and others. Investors in the banking sector will be watching to see if the decline in mortgage originations and refinancings is offset by higher revenue from credit lines. The corporate calendar for the week includes investor events for Dave & Buster's Entertainment (NASDAQ: PLAY), Ferroglobe PLC (NASDAQ: GSM), Suncor (NYSE: SU) and Pure Cycle Corporation (NASDAQ: PCYO) - while Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) Prime Day and competing online sales will dominate attention in the retail sector. Inflation talk will also be front and center, with the consumer price index and producer price index reports both expected to be just as strong for June as they were for May.

Earnings spotlight: Monday, July 11 - Greenbrier ( GBX), PepsiCo, PriceSmart ( PSMT).

Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, July 12 - AngioDynamics (NASDAQ: ANGO).

Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, July 13 - Delta Air Lines ( DAL) and Fastenal ( FAST).

Earnings spotlight: Thursday, July 14 - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( TSM), JPMorgan Chase ( JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and Conagra ( CAG).

Earnings spotlight: Friday, July 15 - PNC Financial ( PNC), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), Citigroup ( C), PNC ( PNC), State Street ( STT), Wells Fargo ( WFC), U.S. Bancorp ( USB) and UnitedHealth ( UNH).

IPO watch: Nano Labs ( NA) is expected to start trading on July 12. Nano Labs makes ASIC chips for crypto mining machines and some metaverse-related computing applications. COVID-19 test marketer Virax Biolans Group (NASDAQ: VRAX) is scheduled to debut on the market on July 14. Watch Hillstream Biopharma (NASDAQ: HILS) and TPG ( TPG) with IPO lockup periods expiring to free up more shares to be sold.

SPAC watch: Shareholders with ACE Convergence Acquisition Corp. ( ACEV), FoxWayne Enterprises Acquisition Corp. ( FOXW), Global SPAC Partners Co. ( GLSPT), Brilliant Acquisition Corporation ( BRLI), HPX Corp. (NYSE: HPX), and Chavant Capital Acquisition Corp. ( CLAY) all meet during the week to vote on extending the deadline to close their respective SPAC deals.

Dividend watch: Some of the notable companies forecast to boost their dividend payouts next week include Goldman Sachs ( GS) to $2.50 from $2.00, Marsh & McLennan Companies ( MMC) to $0.595 from $0.535, Morgan Stanley ( MS) to $0.775 from $0.70, State Street ( STT) to $0.63 from $0.57, Molson Coors ( TAP) to $0.42 from $0.38,Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) to $0.37 from $0.34, Conagra ( CAG) to $0.3375 from $0.3125, and Ryder ( R) to $0.62 from $0.58. Amid the market turmoil, money manager Adviser Investments recommends financially sound companies that are likely to continue lifting payouts. The firm's dividend strategy holdings include Microsoft ( MSFT), Apple ( AAPL), Costco Wholesale ( COST), JPMorgan Chase ( JPM), Nike ( NKE), Procter & Gamble ( PG), and PepsiCo. "Those well-capitalized companies that continue to increase their dividends through recessions are the companies you want to own," noted analyst Josh McCourt.

Amazon Prime Day: Consumers will be put to the test next week with Amazon ( AMZN) holding its two-day Prime Day event, Target ( TGT) running its three-day Deals Day event, Best Buy ( BBY) having a Black Friday in July sale, Macy's ( M) holding a Black Friday in July event and Walmart ( WMT) already offering high levels of markdowns. Jefferies estimated that Prime Day will contribute $8.1B to gross merchandise value and $4.7B to sales, which represents a 6% tailwind for GMW and 4% boosts for sales. "We see Prime Day helping to boost Prime adoption, especially in international markets, which have lower membership penetration and 3 new countries participating in 2022 Prime Day," previewed the firm. Prime Day has helped drive incremental Prime Membership adoption in the past. Earlier this year, Amazon raised its Prime fees in the U.S. in March to $14.99 a month from $12.99 and to $139 a year from $119. The price increase is expected to drive ~$2.8B in incremental Prime subscription revenue from existing subs throughout the year. The read-through on inventory levels and discounting will be key as investors assess the outlook for the retail sector in Q3.

Eyes on inflation: The week ahead is inflation central, with the consumer price and producer price reports both due in. The consumer price index report is expected to show a 1.0% month-over-month and 8.7% year-over-year rise in prices for June. Core CPI is expected to held steady from the previous month with a 0.6% gain. Despite the strong headline numbers anticipated, JPMorgan thinks economic reopening inflationary pressures for certain service prices faltered somewhat in June. Airline fares are expected to be flat following three consecutive double-digit increases, and lodging-away-from-home prices are forecast to decline modestly. The producer price index report is expected to show a 0.8% month-over-month rise for the second consecutive month, due in part to strong energy prices. Core PPI is forecast to increase 0.4% month-over-month.

Airlines earnings preview: Delta Air Lines ( DAL) kicks off the earnings season for the airline sector with its report arriving on July 13. The expectation is that Delta will issue guidance at the lower end of its prior range due to operational issues and cost pressures. Across the industry, the latest data reads have indicated no meaningful cracks in demand, but investors may be looking for confident tones on earnings conference calls. Bank of America think if demand were to slow, the industry can quickly cut capacity to meet demand. The firm heads into the earnings season with Buy ratings on Delta, Southwest Airlines ( LUV), and Alaska Air Group ( ALK) due to stronger balance sheets and higher margins than peers.

PepsiCo earnings preview: PepsiCo is scheduled to report Q2 earnings on July 12 to consensus expectations for revenue of $19.5B and EPS of $1.74 to be reported. JPMorgan forecast PepsiCo will report organic sales growth of 8.6% vs. 7.7% consensus. The firm expects PepsiCo to echo many of the themes the firm has heard from consumer packaged goods companies at recent conferences on consumer spending holding up even with prices higher. PEP is said to be a preferred name for investors seeking earnings compounding with low volatility and a favorable risk/reward with PEP trading at a slight discount to Coca-Cola ( KO). Wells Fargo and Evercore ISI are also positive on PepsiCo into the report, with both firms pointing to strong scanner trends. Meanwhile, Stifel suggested the company may be interested in making an acquisition of a smaller beverage player to build on a successful acquisitive track record that has included purchases like Sodastream and Rockstar Energy in recent years.

Corporate events: Watch all week for updates from three-day World Orphan Drug Congress USA healthcare event. Some of the companies with key presentations that could spark a share price reaction include Tonix Pharmaceuticals ( TNXP), Vaxart (NASDAQ: VXRT), bluebird bio ( BLUE), Rocket Pharmaceutical ( RCKT), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals ( REGN), and Avrobio (NASDAQ: AVRO). Dave & Buster's Entertainment ( PLAY) will hold a conference call to report combined results for D&B and Main Event on July 12. Ferroglobe PLC ( GSM) will also host a virtual Investor Day, which will include a comprehensive review of the business and its current activities. Suncor ( SU) and Pure Cycle Corporation ( PCYO) have investor events scheduled for July 13. Shareholders with Healthcare Realty Trust (NYSE: HR) and Healthcare Trust of America (NYSE: HTA) vote on the planned merger of the two companies on July 15. Earlier in the month, proxy firm ISS recommended cautionary support for the deal. Read more about the events next week that could impact shares prices in Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch.

Stock splits: The Alphabet ( GOOGL) 20-for-1 stock split will become effective after the close of the market. There is some speculation that the stock split could lead to the tech giant being added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Barron's mentions: The publication churned out a list of the top dividend stocks to hold during a recession after pointing out that dividend stocks have historically declined less than the broad market during periods of economic downturn. While dividend payouts can be suspended or slashed during recessions, it was noted that even in the sharpest and deepest recession in modern history, S&P 500 dividends only fell by 3%. Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ), Coca-Cola ( KO), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), Apple ( AAPL), Costco Wholesale ( COST), JPMorgan Chase ( JPM), Nike ( NKE), Procter & Gamble ( PG), and PepsiCo ( PEP) are mentioned as some of the dividend elite. Watsco (NYSE: WSO) also gets attention this week as a stock that looks attractive on a valuation basis. The air conditioning distributor is called a stable business that features consistent earnings and sales, and should be attractive to investors looking to play defense while benefiting from the heat. Watsco ( WSO) trades at 17.8X estimated 2023 earnings per share, which is a 14% premium to the 15.6X multiple of the S&P 500 Index, but Watsco is observed to be growing faster than most companies and usually trades at a premium of almost 50% to its five-year average.

Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters

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From: Julius Wong7/12/2022 7:11:51 AM
2 Recommendations   of 7157
On bullshit in investing


he epic crash in stocks and crypto has been the big financial story of 2022. When the Fed raised rates, it exposed a lot of bad investments — as Warren Buffett once said, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.” But it would be nice if investors could recognize the too-good-to-be-true stuff before the big crash, so as not to over-expose themselves in the first place.

Benn Eifert knows a bit about recognizing bullshit in the investing world. He’s the managing partner at QVR Advisors, a San Francisco-based hedge fund. Tweeting from his account at @bennpeifert, Benn has also recently become a star of financial Twitter (or “fintwit”, as it’s known), dispensing a mix of humor, technical knowledge, and criticism of popular investing hype. In this guest post, he focuses on the latter, sparing no criticism for the stars of the recent boom-and-bust.

The opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the opinions of QVR Advisors.

“What bothers me isn't that fraud is not nice. Or that fraud is mean. For fifteen thousand years, fraud and short-sighted thinking have never, ever worked. Not once. Eventually you get caught, things go south. When the hell did we forget all that?” — Mark Baum, The Big Short

“Well of course they're trying to screw you! What do you think? That's what they do. They can make up anything; nobody knows! "Why, well you need a new Johnson rod in here." Oh, a Johnson rod. Yeah, well better put one of those on!” — George Costanza, Seinfeld

The investing industry is ridden with bullshit. The most common and insidious form is over-optimism: offers of tantalizing risk/reward that defy any notion of reality, often based on misinformation or deception. Less common but even more dangerous are outright frauds.

The problem is inherent to the product. Most consumer goods – apples, hotel rooms, laptop computers – are tangible objects or services that you can see, taste, feel, or experience, so you can judge how much they are worth to you. Investments represent claims about some future probability distribution of monetary outcomes which are not literally verifiable. The best an investor can do is form a reasonable judgment about the uncertainty around those claims, based on historical evidence and details about the mechanics of how those claimed outcomes are generated.

The packages can be familiar, fresh, or exclusive. Highly speculative futuristic investments are wrapped in ETFs or SPACs. Ponzi schemes are dressed up as sophisticated options strategies (Madoff) or technological revolution (Terra/Luna). Sophisticated institutional hedge funds masquerade as arbitrage when they simply sell catastrophe insurance. Both retail and institutional investors are targets.

The lines between over-optimism, deception, and fraud are not always bright, and investment schemes can move slowly between those categories over time. Common red flags include:

* Projected returns far above historical equity returns

* Claims of returns significantly exceeding bond yields with little or no risk

* Extrapolation of recent extreme investment performance into the future

* Overly complex investments with non-transparent sources of return

* Perverse incentives for the people selling the investment

Bad actors’ tactics are sophisticated and rooted in psychology. They dangle the prospect of wealth and riches (“phantom fixation”). They launder credibility: legitimization via the backing of authoritative figures. They use social consensus and group psychology to normalize ideas and narratives and pressure people to stop asking questions. They use scarcity or immediacy as a pressure tool (you’re about to miss the big returns; the fund is about to close; ngmi). These are just a few of the techniques uncovered by the Consumer Fraud Research Group undercover investigation of sales transcripts. [1] The FINRA Investor Education Foundation promotes basic diligence hygiene: learn to recognize red flags, know which questions to ask, and independently verify answers.

Over-optimistic, deceptive or fraudulent investments are over-concentrated in areas of new technology. New technologies are characterized by their uncertainty of success. This requires selling potential investors a narrative about future possibilities as opposed to visible cash flows. That is natural! By definition any novel disruptive technology lacks a track record. Investors who avoid innovative technologies altogether because of this ambiguity ignore the inevitability of change.

However, this inherently ambiguous futurism also lends itself to bad behavior. For example, mutual fund manager Cathie Wood claimed that ARKK’s research showed imminent breakthroughs in artificial general intelligence could accelerate GDP growth from 3-5% per year to 30-50% per year. [2] This is preposterous; the fastest sustained economic growth rates in any country in history are closer to 10%, or close to half that for advanced industrialized nations. Meanwhile, she projected compound rates of return over 50% for her portfolio of popular speculative technology companies, presumably in part based on research like that AGI bit. For a five-year period this implies a 7.6x gain, wildly implausible on an ex-ante basis. This is an example of wild over-optimism and misleading or deceptive investor information. Her mutual funds have generated hundreds of millions of dollars of risk-free fee income for herself while destroying billions of dollars of investor capital in abysmal dollar-weighted returns. Meanwhile, investor inflows into ARKK have continued at a rapid pace.

Another recent example is the explosion of special purpose acquisition vehicles (SPACs). These are perverse financial structures that enable their sponsors and bankers to sell a company to public market investors and walk away with millions of dollars from the promotion fee and merger fees, even if the investment itself performs terribly and the subsequent investors lose most or all their money. SPACs can merge with dubious companies like Nikola Motors, whose prototype electric truck was famously filmed rolling downhill in its promotional video, despite the CEO’s claims that it was fully functional. [3]

Importantly, SPACs allow their promoters to sell shares to investors without the onerous restrictions on making wild financial projections before a traditional IPO. Research published this year found that SPACs project revenue growth at three times the rate of similar IPOs and public companies, at the 97th percentile of actual realized growth among those comps, and then mostly stop making projections altogether after the merger. [4] Chamath Palihapitiya famously used SPACs as the exit liquidity vehicle for his venture capital investments, promoting them as “democratizing access to high-growth companies”. Meanwhile investors who provided the exit liquidity have lost most of their money as his post-merger SPAC share prices collapsed.

Add a new red flag to the list: use of anti-establishment language combined with selling something. This is a common tool used to manipulate ordinary investors who feel left out of Wall Street’s riches. Never trust a “democratizing X” investment pitch: they’re looking for new marks.

Speaking of [air quotes] democratization.

The nascent cryptocurrency industry is another area bursting with hype around interesting technologies. Again fertile ground for widespread deception and fraud. Algorithmic stablecoins paying eye-watering yields had all the classic red flags. TerraUSD offered 20% returns on a coin pegged to the dollar (and therefore optically low risk), via protocols like Anchor or startups like Stablegains. The protocols ostensibly created revenue to pay this yield via lending out the funds to eager borrowers. However, the demand for loans was much lower than the demand to invest at 20% yield, and the lending interest rate was much lower. In practice, the returns paid out to people exiting the protocol had to come from new inflows at an ever-increasing rate, in a classic Ponzi structure.

It should be self-evident that a 20% low-risk investment return cannot exist. The marketing machine around Terra/Luna deployed the standard playbook, on steroids. Widely followed financial promoters like Raoul Pal of RealVision described the protocol as essentially risk-free. [5] The white paper for the Anchor protocol was written by Marco Di Maggio, a Harvard Business School professor, who purported to use complex mathematical simulations to show how Anchor was robust. [6] Stablegains, a Silicon Valley startup that invested in DeFi tokens and stablecoins, was backed by Y Combinator, one of the most recognizable brands in technology. [7]

Countless other protocols have offered stratospheric yields explained by complex schematic diagrams. Understand this: yield has to come from somewhere. If you can’t understand in simple terms where yield comes from, what risk you are being compensated for bearing, then the yield is likely not sustainable. It rests on temporary venture capital subsidies or from inflows into the protocol from other investors. As the recent crypto crash reminds us, one common source of yield is lending at high interest rates to other crypto investors for leverage. This is “real”, but is it sustainable, or does it require extrapolating past explosive returns in crypto into the future?

Bullshit investments are not only pushed to retail. Large institutional investors have shown repeated vulnerability to slick pitches. The flavor of deception may vary since the diligence committees are more sophisticated, but the red flags are familiar, albeit more subtle, typically relying on complexity to obscure the fraud.

Madoff, the patron saint of audacious fraud, claimed to be involved in complex option-based arbitrage strategies. His stated returns were very consistent, around 20% per year, on tens of billions of dollars, completely unfathomable to any professional derivatives manager. The size and scale of his supposed trading activities were huge, yet no one on Wall Street was trading with his firm, nor custodying his assets. This type of outright Ponzi scheme became more difficult in the institutional landscape after Madoff, as investors increased their operational due diligence standards. Such deception and fraud, urges as reliable as the ocean’s tides, would find more subtle forms.

The Allianz Structured Alpha funds managed tens of billions of dollars of money on behalf of conservative pension funds and foundations. They ran a complicated option-selling investment strategy purported to produce equity-like returns with low risk, hedged against a market crash. The strategy generated considerably higher total returns than any comparable limited-loss option selling strategy like the CBOE CNDR Index. It turned out they were using leverage and simply lying about buying insurance against a market crash while providing doctored risk reports to investors and management. The fuse was lit. They blew up spectacularly in March 2020. [8] The key warning was a complex strategy delivering much better results than reasonably expected based on its description, without performance attribution data that could possibly have been reconciled. The most unsettling part of this horror story was how such a large scale deception could occur under the nose of trusted brand-name asset management firms.

InfinityQ is yet another recent example of sophisticated fund managers duping investors with complex, non-transparent strategies. The firm was involved in the trading of highly complex exotic derivatives with banks, and had both hedge fund and mutual fund products. The types of “risk transfer” trades the firm was known for in the derivatives community – geometric dispersion baskets, corridor variance swap spreads, skew locks – would have typically been expected to lose money during periods of market stress, but reported performance was always strong and consistent. Investors took comfort that David Bonderman’s family office had incubated the firm. It turned out that CIO James Velissaris manipulated computer code in internal valuation models, lied about independent third-party valuation, and forged documents for fund administrators and auditors to avoid discovery. [9] The funds were liquidated in 2021 at a massive loss to investors. Here the red flags were a highly complex and nontransparent investment strategy, which was understood by those in the space to have significant short volatility characteristics, with a track record that was far too consistent.

Bullshit in investing, be it wild over-optimism, deception or fraud, is as old as time, precisely because it is hard to resist the promise of easy returns and to tell the difference between innovation and make-believe.

* The first step in avoiding being taken for a ride is to recognize that you are a mark for people trying to get rich off your money.

* Burn the principle into your brain that financial markets are large and competitive and have a lot of smart people in them.

* Easy money-making opportunities are almost never real; professional mercenaries would have found and exploited them first.

* High returns with low risk explained away by complicated and nontransparent strategies deserve great scrutiny.

* On the institutional side, keep in mind that the world is a relatively small place and tremendous value can be gleaned by asking the views of people close to a particular market or strategy.

* Ask questions; be skeptical; do not assume that just because brand-name firms or authority figures are involved that all is well.

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From: Julius Wong7/13/2022 7:43:19 AM
1 Recommendation   of 7157
Why stocks could get a near-term pop after CPI arrives

Jul. 12, 2022 12:31 PM ET SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) SP500By: Kim Khan, SA News Editor 39 Comments


With inflation likely reaching its apex, a benign retail inflation number should spur a risk-on rally, according to Wells Fargo.

The June CPI arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, with economists looking for a 1.1% rise for the month and a 0.6% rise in core CPI.

If the headline number is in line, slightly above or well below consensus there will be a near-term pop in risk assets, senior equity analyst Chris Harvey wrote in a note Tuesday.

"We believe analyst bias and an asymmetric payoff structure is building a consensus that will be difficult to exceed," Harvey said. "The 8.8% y/y consensus is the highest in recent memory, and follows calls for peak inflation last month by many analysts."

"After May's CPI miss, and last Friday's miss on payrolls, we now expect a near-term upward bias to forecasts."

The S&P 500 ( SP500) (NYSEARCA: SPY) has given back some gains this week after kicking off July with a 1.9% gain. It's still up 1.8% for the month vs. an 8.4% plunge in June.

"Supporting our view that the market likely will embrace a 'peak-inflation' view is the trend in breakevens, commodities, and the consumer," Harvey added. "Breakevens (across maturities) have fallen significantly since June 10, with 2yr breakevens tightening over 100bps. Notably, 5yr and 10yr breakevens are back to levels observed a year ago."

"Commodity prices have also been trending down, with crude oil off $12 (10%) since June 10. Meanwhile, the UofMich Consumer Sentiment Index recently hit a two decade low."

J.P. Morgan's Marko Kolanovic also sees inflation moderating and is looking risk-on.

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From: Julius Wong7/14/2022 7:31:41 AM
   of 7157
Warren Buffett says these are the best stocks to own when inflation spikes — with consumer prices now at a white-hot 9.1%, it's time to follow his lead

In a 1981 letter to shareholders, Buffett highlighted two business traits that investors should look for when trying to fight inflation: 1) the power to increase prices easily, and 2) the ability to take on more business without having to spend excessively.

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From: Julius Wong7/17/2022 8:05:42 AM
1 Recommendation   of 7157
Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead

Jul. 17, 2022 7:27 AM ET

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Stitcher and Spotify.

Economic reports in the week ahead

Earnings reports will dominate the week as big names like Bank of America ( BAC), Netflix ( NFLX), Tesla ( TSLA), and Twitter ( TWTR) report amid plenty of drama. While investors have already baked into share prices that the earnings season will show some disappointments and downward revisions, the latest reads on consumer demand, labor shortages, and supply chain issues will still be critical. The economic calendar next week includes updates on housing starts, existing home sales, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Federal Reserve speakers will be in a blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting on July 26-27, but futures trading on fed funds contract will be closely watched with the odds for a 100-point hike gyrating wildly. On the corporate calendar, Nikola (NASDAQ: NKLA) stockholders will vote again on issuing more shares and GameStop's (NYSE: GME) four-of-one stock split will became effective at the very end of the week.

Earnings spotlight: Monday, July 18 - Bank of America ( BAC), IBM ( IBM), and Goldman Sachs ( GS).

Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, July 19 - Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ), Lockheed Martin ( LMT), Netflix ( NFLX), Hasbro ( HAS), Silvergate Capital (NYSE: SI), and

Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, July 20 - Tesla ( TSLA), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), CSX (NASDAQ: CSX), Las Vegas Sands ( LVS), Biogen (NASDAQ: BIIB), and United Airlines ( UAL).

Earnings spotlight: Thursday, July 21 - AT&T ( T), Philip Morris International ( PM), Travelers Companies ( TRV), Domino's Pizza (NYSE: DPZ), Union Pacific (UMP), Snap ( SNAP), and

Earnings spotlight: Friday, July 22 - Verizon Communications ( VZ), American Express ( AXP), Twitter ( TWTR), and HCA Healthcare ( HCA).

IPO watch: The analyst quiet period expires on Golden Sun Education Group ( GSUN) on July 18. The IPO lockup expires on the same day on Yoshitsu ( TKLF).

Farnborough Air Show: The global aviation industry will be watching for headlines out of the Farnborough International Airshow. Boeing will demonstrate the 737 MAX 10 in a flying display and the newest 777X widebody. The company will also highlight developments with sustainable, autonomous flight, and the eVTOL Wisk Aero joint venture. Airbus will present the A350-900 widebody capabilities in a daily flying display and could also announce a deal with Delta Air Lines ( DAL) for more A220 narrowbody planes. Other companies due to make appearance at the air show include NI ( NATI), Ansys ( NSS), Lockheed Martin ( LMT), Rolls-Royce ( OTCPK:RYCEY), and BAE Systems ( OTCPK:BAESF). Also watch for Boom Supersonic, which recently won commitments from United Airlines ( UAL) for its Overture passenger supersonic jet last year that has a proposed Mach 1.7 speed and 4,250 nautical miles of range,

Philip Morris International earnings preview: Philip Morris International ( PM) will report earnings on July 21 to expectations for revenue of and EPS of. CFO Emmanuel Babeau noted at a recent investor conference that the underlying fundamentals remained strong, underpinned by the continued growth of IQOS and robust category share. Looking ahead, PM plans on broadening its vapor portfolio, with the second half launch of the VEEBA disposable evapor product. Guidance from PM will take into account the latest Russia/Ukraine situation, global inflation pressures on consumers and a stronger U.S. dollar than was seen during the last update. Bank of America believes investors are largely looking at the underlying business, which it sees as strong with upside potential. "In addition, we like its attractive yield, strategy to shift smokers to higher margin, less harmful alternatives, partly offset by near term issues in E. Europe," updated the firm.

Netflix earnings preview:
Netflix ( NFLX) will report Q2 earnings after the closing bell on July 19. Consensus estimates are for Netflix ( NFLX) to report $8.0B in revenue and show EPS of $2.96. Analysts are also calling for -1.9M paid subscriber additions even with Stranger Things season four working in its favor. "For 3Q, our informal polling of select institutional investors suggests many believe 3Q sell-side targets may be too high and guidance could come in below Street estimates of +2.2mn adds," warns Morgan Stanley. There is also some concern that F/X will negatively impact results for Netflix with the company being unhedged. Meanwhile, UBS expects a cautious guide from NFLX management even though the back half is typically seasonally stronger. The firm forecasts 1.3M subscribers to be added in Q3 and 2.8M for the year. "We expect net adds in '23 to bounce back to 9.5M (prior 11.5M) with a new ad-supported tier helping, but competition & pressure on consumer wallets could drive downside," noted analyst John Hodulik. During the Netflix earnings call, look for color on the new ad sales and marketing partnership with Microsoft ( MSFT).

Corporate events: Nikola ( NKLA) shareholders are scheduled to vote on July 18 on Proposal 2 to increase the number of outstanding shares to 800M from 600M. Microsoft ( MSFT) holds its two-day Inspire event on July 19-20 to focus on the opportunities in the cloud for partners. The Bloomberg Crypto Summit will take place in New York on July 19 Speakers include representatives from FTX, Tezos ( XTZ-USD), Ripple ( XRP-USD), Binance, and Coinbase Global ( COIN). One of the more intriguing sessions will cover Web 3.0, the Metaverse and Blockchain Gaming potential. Amid growing questions about consumer spending and a potential trade-down effect, the National Retail Federation will hold a webinar on July 19 to discuss consumer spending expectations for the 2022 back-to-school and college shopping season. The event will highlight NRF's latest consumer data. and could be noteworthy for major retail chains like Walmart ( WMT), Target ( TGT), Costco ( COST), Dollar General ( DG), and Dollar Tree ( DLTR). Capri Holdings Limited (NYSE: CPRI) will host an Investor Day event on July 20 with presentations and a question and answer session with the management team. Execs from the Versace, Jimmy Choo and Michael Kors businesses will give talks. Eliem Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ELYM) and Creatd Inc. (NASDAQ: CRTD) have investor events scheduled for July 21.

Stock splits: GameStop ( GME) will begin trading on a split-adjusted basis on July 22.

Box office preview : Disney's ( DIS) Thor: Love and Thunder is expected to top the weekend box office for a second time in a row with a haul of around $50M. Paramount's (NASDAQ: PARA) Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank and Sony Picture's ( SONY) Where the Crawdads Sing hope to shake up what has been a tentpole heavy summer. Netflix ( NFLX) is running out spy film The Gray Man in 450 theaters in U.S. and Canada.

Barron's mentions: The publication sees an opportunity in apartment REIT stocks with home prices and mortgage rates on the rise. Apartment REITs are noted to be trading at a 21% discount to the value of their underlying assets, compared to 3% a year ago. The recommendation is to look at large-cap REITs with strong balance sheets, good management teams, and safe dividends with a focus in geographic areas of the country seeing strong apartment occupancy rates. AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR), Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), Mid-America Apartment Communities ( MAA), Apartment Income REIT (NYSE: AIRC), and UDR ( UDR) all make the list.

Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters.

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From: Julius Wong7/19/2022 9:35:45 PM
1 Recommendation   of 7157
These stocks are on the most crowded shorts list - watch out above

Jul. 19, 2022 12:15 PM ET Canoo Inc. (GOEV) FFIE, GOSS, VERV, LWLG, BEAM, COWN, VERU, BYND, FATE, RIDE, RKT, BROS, FSR, MARA, GME, LCIDBy: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor 37 Comments


The recent stock rally has made some crowded shorts more squeezable, according to S3 Partners' Ihor Dusaniwsky.

Dusaniwsky created a ranking of the most crowded shorts based on factors like total short dollars at risk, short interest as a true percentage of a company's tradable float, stock loan liquidity and trading liquidity.

Based on the firm's proprietary scoring method, the stock most at risk of seeing a short squeeze is Faraday Future Intelligent Electric ( FFIE). An electric vehicle stock is also in second place with Canoo (NASDAQ: GOEV) calculated to be a very crowded short.

The other stocks in the top ten list of names most at risk of a short squeeze are Gossamer Bio ( GOSS), Verve Therapeutics ( VERV), Lightwave Logic ( LWLG), Beam Therapeutics ( BEAM), Cowen Group ( COWN), Veru ( VERU), Beyond Meat ( BYND), and Fate Therapeutics ( FATE).

Also ranking in the top 25 are Lordstown Motors ( RIDE), Rocket Companies ( RKT), Dutch Bros. ( BROS), Fisker ( FSR), Marathon Digital ( MARA), GameStop ( GME), and Lucid Group ( LCID).

Dusaniwsky reminded that having a high Squeeze Score does not guarantee that a stock will be squeezed, but noted that it does highlight stocks that have a much higher squeeze potential than most other stocks in the market. Of note, the stocks in the top 25 list all have incurred double-digit percentage mark-to-market losses over the last 30 days coupled with mark-to-market losses over the last seven days.

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