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From: Julius Wong5/24/2022 9:12:24 PM
2 Recommendations   of 7094
Worried About Inflation? Here's What Investments Worked In The 1970s

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From: Julius Wong5/25/2022 7:08:03 AM
   of 7094
Michael Burry Says 2022 Is a ‘Plane Crash.’ Here’s What the Legendary Investor Is Betting On.

Burry is back on Twitter with a bearish warning

15h ago · May 24, 2022 By Eddie Pan, InvestorPlace Assistant News Writer

* Michael Burry returned to Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) with a bearish warning

* As of Q1, Burry’s largest position is put options against Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)

* Burry manages over $290 million in assets under management (AUM)

Source: Shutterstock

Famed 2008 crash caller Michael Burry is back on Twitter (NYSE: TWTR). Today, he issued a dire warning to his followers. At the time of writing, Burry’s Twitter account has one tweet:

As I said about 2008, it is like watching a plane crash. It hurts, it is not fun, and I’m not smiling.

— Cassandra B.C. (@michaeljburry) May 24, 2022

Current market sentiment certainly supports his bold correlation with today’s market and the market crash of 2008. CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is currently sitting at 12 out of 100, which indicates extreme fear. The index takes into account seven factors, which includes the put/call ratio and the Volatility Index (VIX) in relation with its 50-day moving average. So, if Burry is as bearish as he was in 2008, what exactly is he betting on?

What Is Michael Burry Betting On?

Burry’s hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, is a highly active fund with heavy turnover. According to Whale Wisdom, the fund has an average holding period of 0.08 quarters. Based on the latest Form ADV, Scion has over $291 million in AUM.

In addition, every single one of the fund’s positions is a new position bought during Q1, except for Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY). During the quarter, Scion sold out of several names, such as General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Geo Group (NYSE: GEO) and Corecivic (NYSE: CXW). Currently, the fund owns 12 positions in its 13F portfolio.

Based on Burry’s tweet, it’s not exactly surprising to see that his largest position is put options against Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). The fund owns 2,060 put options. These put options represent the right to sell 206,000 shares of AAPL if they expire in the money. In total, the options account for a massive 17.86% of Scion’s 13F portfolio.

The fund’s second-largest and third-largest positions are Bristol-Myers Squibb and Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG), respectively. BMY has a 10.88% allocation, while BKNG has a 9.33% allocation. BMY has turned out to be a great bet for Burry, as it is up 23% year-to-date (YTD), compared with the S&P 500’s YTD loss of 18%. BKNG is another story, as it is down 17% YTD, but it is still beating the S&P 500’s return by 1%.

Investors will surely want to keep up with Burry’s Twitter account to see how he views the market.

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From: Julius Wong5/26/2022 7:06:14 AM
1 Recommendation   of 7094
Every Bear Market is Different

It’s official: the Bear Market of 2022. The S&P 500 has now fallen 20.9% from its high in early January, the largest decline for the index since March 2020.

Powered by YChartsThe question everyone’s asking: what happens next?

To answer that, we often look back at history, attempting to find parallels with the past.

But even a cursory glance at a table of prior bear markets reveals the difficulty in doing so, as the lack of any consistent pattern is evident.

A bear can take on many forms…

1) Short and Shallow

All bear markets are painful, but if you had to choose one, this would be it.

We’ve seen many short and shallow bears in recent history, including 2020, 2018, 2011, 1998, 1990, and 1987. All of these bears lasted 5 months or less from peak to trough with a maximum decline of 36% in 1987. And with the exception of 1987, all experienced fast recoveries, hitting new all-time highs within a year of the low.

2020 Bear Market (-35%, 1 Month, Recession)

Powered by YCharts-2018 Bear Market (-20%, 3 Months, no Recession)

-2011 Bear Market (-22%, 5 Months, no Recession)

1998 Bear Market (-22%, 3 Months, no Recession)

-1990 Bear Market (-20%, 3 Months, Recession)

-1987 Bear Market (-36%, 2 Months, no Recession)

2) Long and Deep

When most investors hear the phrase “bear market,” the long and deep variety is likely what comes to mind. The financial crisis and the bursting of the dot-com bubble both lasted more than a year (17 and 31 months) with over 50% losses. More seasoned market participants may recall the 1973-74 bear market which took 21 months to bottom, cutting the S&P 500 in half.

With steeper declines come much longer recovery times. After the 1974/2002/2009 lows, the S&P 500 did not hit new highs again until 1980/2007/2013.

2007-09 Bear Market (-58%, 17 Months, Recession)

Powered by YCharts-2000-02 Bear Market (-51%, 31 Months, Recession)

-1973-74 Bear Market (-50%, 21 Months, Recession)

3) The Steady Drip

You probably aren’t thinking about the “steady drip” type of bear market because we haven’t experienced it in 40 years, but it’s another possibility to consider. In 1980-82, there was a long bear market (22 months) that featured a steady drip lower, declining 28% from peak to trough. This is the complete opposite of what we saw in the 2020 bear that lasted only 1 month but lost 35%. Another interesting feature of the 1980-82 bear was how quickly the market recovered, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high in November 1982, only 3 months after the low.

-1980-82 Bear Market (-28%, 22 Months, Recession)

Powered by YCharts4) The Worst of All Worlds

There’s one bear market that’s feared above all others: the 1929-32 decline during the Great Depression. It started out in a similar fashion to 1987, with an epic crash that took the stock market down 45% in a just a few short months. From there it would proceed to rally 47% in the most epic fake-out in market history, only to turn back down once again. By the low in June 1932, the S&P was 86% below its 1929 peak, and investors didn’t see a new high again until 1954.

-1929-32 Bear Market (-86%, 33 months, Depression)

Which of the 4 types of bear markets are we in today?

Unfortunately, that’s a question that can only be answered with the benefit of hindsight.

The study of history can inform us of what could possibly happen, but never what will happen.

Whether a bear market is short and shallow or something worse has often hinged on whether the US enters a recession, which has yet to be determined.

If we can avoid an economic downturn, as we did in 10 previous bears (see table below), we’re more likely to see a shorter and shallower decline (-29% over 12 months on average).

On the other hand, if we’re entering a recession, the odds seem to favor a longer and deeper bear market (-42% over 16 months on average) than what we’ve witnessed thus far (-21% over 4 months).

But these are just simple averages; there’s much variability within the dataset.

The recessions in 1948-59, 1957-58, and 1990-91 all saw stock market declines of 20-21%, similar to many of the non-recessionary bear markets. And this doesn’t even include the 1980 recession (January – July 1980) in which stocks only declined 17% (February-March 1980) or the 1945 recession (February – October 1945) in which there was no significant stock market decline at all.

So while not likely, a recession could be coming without stocks declining much more than they already have. Given the fear out there, it’s safe to say that most investors are probably not envisioning one of these more benign scenarios. They are more likely fearing something much worse, a repeat of the 50%+ recessionary bear markets of 2000-02 and 2007-09.

While that’s certainly a possibility, so is a shallower decline accompanied with a recession, or no recession at all.

Every bear market is different, and the full story of the one we’re living through today has yet to be written.

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From: Julius Wong5/26/2022 7:56:05 AM
   of 7094
Market buy signal: MACD

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From: Julius Wong5/27/2022 7:15:53 AM
2 Recommendations   of 7094
Howard Marks

There are recurring cycles, ups and downs, but the course of events is essentially the same, with small variations. It has been said that history repeats itself this is perhaps not quite correct it merely rhymes.

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From: Julius Wong5/29/2022 5:18:12 PM
1 Recommendation   of 7094
Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead

May 29, 2022 7:21 AM ET 5 Comments8 Likes

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Stitcher and Spotify.

Economic reports in the week ahead

Investors will come back from the Memorial Day break with a focus on Europe, where leaders will be meeting in Brussels. While the EU is not expected to approve a full ban on Russian oil, an embargo of seaborne deliveries or the general nature of the discussion could impact the energy market. OPEC is also on tap to meet next week, although no major fireworks are anticipated with the production statement. Key economic reports due to watch include updates on construction spending, factory orders, U.S. auto sales and the May jobs report. Economists forecast 329K jobs addition for the month to fall back from the 428K job adds in April. The unemployment rate is seen drifting to 3.5% from 3.6%. The IPO calendar is quiet again, but a riveting SPAC could come to the market in the retail sector, with Walmart (NYSE: WMT)-backed Symbotic likely to catch some attention amid the supply chain and labor disruption in the retail sector. On the corporate calendar, the earnings confessional will see visits from HP Inc. ( HPQ), GameStop ( GME), and Lululemon, while annual meetings at Alphabet ( GOOG) and Walmart ( WMT) will be full of shareholder activism. Finally, next week will be the last chance for investors to buy Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) before the 20-for-1 stock split becomes effective on June 6.

Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, May 31 - HP Inc. ( HPQ), Salesforce ( CRM), Sportsman's Warehouse ( SPWH), ChargePoint Holdings ( CHPT), Victoria's Secret ( VSCO).

Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, June 1 - Capri Holdings ( CPRI), GameStop ( GME), Hewlett Packard Enterprise ( HPE), Mongo DB ( MDB), UiPath (NYSE: PATH), Chewy ( CHWY).

Earnings spotlight: Thursday, June 2 - Designer Brands ( DBI), Hormel ( HRL), SpartanNash (NASDAQ: SPTN), Broadcom ( AVGO), Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU), CrowdStrike ( CRWD), and Okta ( OKTA).

Earnings spotlight: Friday, June 3 - BRP Inc. ( DOOO)

IPO watch: Zhong Yang Financial Group (NASDAQ: TOP) is expected to start trading on June 1. Quiet periods end on Bausch + Lomb ( BLCO), PepGen ( PEPG), and Austin Gold ( AUST) to free up analysts to post ratings. IPO lockup periods expire on Creative Medical Technology (NASDAQ: CELZ) on June 1 and Maris-Tech ( MTEK) on June 2, both stocks are down sharply from their IPO pricing level.

Projected dividend increases: Companies forecast to boost their quarterly dividend payouts include NetApp ( NTAP) to $0.52 from $0.50, Alexandria Real Estate Equities ( ARE) to $1.18 from $1.15, and Universal Health Realty ( UHT) to $0.71 from $0.705.

Corporate events: Watch AmerisourceBergen (NYSE: ABC), Levi Strauss (NYSE: LEVI), and LKQ Corporation (NASDAQ: LKQ) on June 1 with the companies holding investor day events. The event calendar is also busy on June 2 with Ingredion ( INGR), SunOpta ( STKL), BlueLinx Holdings( BXC), Eventbrite (NYSE: EB), and ZoomInfo Technologies ( ZI) all holding investor/analyst days that could see guidance revisions and strategy updates. An intriguing development in the SPAC world will be RedBall Acquisition ( RBAC) shareholders voting on the deal to take SeatGeek public. SeatGeek’s is an official partner of some of the most recognized teams, venues, and leagues across the globe, and a direct competitor of Vivid Seats (NASDAQ: SEAT). At the very end of the week, Amazon ( AMZN) will effectuate its stock split after the closing bell on Friday. That gives investors just a few days to buy the e-commerce stock at the pre-split price. Read more about the events next week that could impact shares prices in Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch.

Conference schedule: The conference schedule is headlined next week by the Jefferies Virtual Internet Summit with Etsy ( ETSY), Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ: OPEN), Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN) and Yelp (NYSE: YELP) all due to appear. Other conferences of note include the Deutsche Bank Global Financial Services Conference, Jefferies Software Conference, Barclays Future of Media Conference, RBC Capital Markets Global Consumer & Retail Conference, KeyBanc Industrials & Basic Materials Investor Conference, Cowen 50th Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, and D.A. Davidson Bitcoin & Blockchain Conference.

Warehouse robots: Shareholders with SVF Investment Corp. 3 (NASDAQ: SVFC) meet to vote on the deal to take Symbotic (SYM) public. Symbotic is described as an automation technology leader reimagining the supply chain with its end-to-end, AI-powered robotic and software platforms. The deal will value Symbotic at a pro forma equity value of about $5.5B. The disruptive platform already serves some of the world’s largest retailers, grocers and wholesalers, including Walmart ( WMT), Albertsons (NYSE: ACI) and C&S Wholesale Grocers. Recently, Walmart announced an expanded commercial agreement with the supply chain tech company to implement robotics and software automation platform in all 42 of the retail giant's regional distribution centers over the coming years. With the industry’s largest contracted order backlog of over $5B, the Symbotic already operates systems that service over 1,400 stores in 16 states and 8 Canadian provinces. Of note, Symbotic posted revenue of $96.3M in FQ2, adjusted EBITDA of -$26.2M, and a quarterly net income of -$29.9M. Walmart ( WMT) is an early backer of Symbotic and SoftBank ( OTCPK:SFTBY) is a sponsor of the SPAC.

Lululemon earnings preview: Lululemon ( LULU) is due to report earnings on June 2 to consensus expectations for revenue of $1.55B and EPS of $1.43. Despite the weakness in the retail sector, LULU heads into earnings with some momentum after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to an Overweight rating on what the firm calls a compelling opportunity to buy a compounding retail growth story at a discounted valuation compared to history marks. On the LULU conference call, watch for potential commentary on the international opportunity. Bank of America thinks the main growth driver to quadruple the international business from current levels will be China.

Annual meetings of note: Companies holding annual meetings next week include Airbnb ( ABN), Chegg ( CHG), ( ANET), Alphabet ( GOOG), ( NVDA), Ulta Beauty ( ULTA), Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL), Revlon ( REV), and Walmart ( WMT). Alphabet will face 17 shareholder resolutions at its annual meeting next week, compared with eight the year before. One of the resolutions is calling for an audit at the company to help address the effects, bias or inequality with Google search, its algorithms, artificial intelligence technology and other products. Meanwhile, a controversial resolution to be voted on at the Walmart meeting seeks for the retail giant to disclose the business risks and costs that would arise by enacted or proposed state policies severely restricting reproductive rights and explain what steps management would take besides litigation and legal compliance to reduce risks of losing employees.

Box office preview: The U.S. movie industry is looking for a big holiday weekend haul, with the long-delayed Top Gun: Maverick finally set to feature. Analysts are forecasting a box office haul of between $98M and $125M in what could also be a sentiment boost for theater chain stocks AMC Entertainment ( AMC), Cineworld ( OTCPK:CNNWF), Cinemark (NYSE: CNK), IMAX ( IMAX) Marcus (NYSE: MCS), Reading International ( RDI), Cineplex ( OTCPK:CPXGF) and National CineMedia ( NCMI). The U.S. box office has generated $2.4B this year through May 25, compared to a total last year of $4.5B and $2.1B in 2020. Most projections have the box office tally for the year falling short of the pre-pandemic level of $11.3B in 2019 even with the highest ticket prices providing a boost.

Barron's mentions: Cryptocurrencies makes the cover this week after the $1.6 trillion wipeout of value over the last six months rattled the sector. Is the downward spiral over? Bitcoin ( BTC-USD) is down 60% from peak price, but it is noted in the last major crypto winter that Bitcoin lost 82% of its value and took three years to return to its previous high. In general this year, cryptocurrencies have behaved like risky assets with concerns over inflation, interest rates, and liquidity overriding the concept of providing a store of value. That trend is expected to continue. In the healthcare sector, Bristol Myers Squibb ( BMY) gets a positive writeup. The upside for the Opdualag and Camzyos treatments are called out in particular. Where are the bargains after the sharp stock market drop of 2022? Alphabet ( GOOG), Lam Research ( LRCX), Meta Platforms ( FB), Micron Technology ( MU), Netflix ( NFLX), and Teradyne ( TER) make the Barron's watch list.

Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Renaissance Capital

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From: Julius Wong5/30/2022 6:18:56 PM
1 Recommendation   of 7094
Top 25 stocks that are down big but have improving earnings

May 30, 2022 8:59 AM ET Penn National Gaming, Inc. (PENN), IPGP, CDAY GRMN, EXPE, GM, ZBRA, ADSK, TSLA, INTU, APTV, QRVO, IDXX, SBNY, CRM, VFC, SWKS, DIS, PVH, CRL, CR, PAYC, NVDA, TWTR, DXCM, GNRC, XLK, SPY, SP500By: Kim Khan, SA News Editor 43 Comments

Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images News

Stock valuations are collapsing while earnings are improving, according to Credit Suisse.

"While the median company has seen their stock price fall -24.4% since its peak, the median P/E multiple fell -27.5%," strategist Jonathan Golub wrote in a note. "This difference is explained by a healthy 3.3% increase in projected EPS."

"On a median basis, all 11 sectors have experienced an improvement in their earnings prospects," Golub said. "This disparity is most extreme for Tech ( XLK) shares where the median valuation has fallen -35.7%, while earnings prospects have improved by 8.0%."

Credit Suisse screened the S&P 500 ( SP500) ( SPY) for stocks with the greatest drawdown from the peak and improving earnings per share.

The stocks are:

Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ: PENN), dawdown -78.6%, EPS gain 11.8%, P/E change -80.9%

IPG Photonics (NASDAQ: IPGP), -62.9%, 11.8%, -64.1%

Ceridian (NYSE: CDAY), -58.8%, 9.5%, -62.4%

Generac ( GNRC), -57.1%, 4.8%, -59.1%

DexCom ( DXCM), -54.4%, 8.7%, -58%

Twitter ( TWTR), -52.7%, 53.1%, -69.1%

Nvidia ( NVDA), -51.9%, 19.2%, -59.6%

Paycom Software ( PAYC), -51.4%, 11.4%, -56.4%

Charles River Labs ( CRL), -50.8%, 10.1%, -55.3%

PVH ( PVH), -50.6%, 0.7%, -50.9%

Disney ( DIS), -50.2%, 46.3%, -66%

Skyworks Solutions ( SWKS), -50%, 13.3%, -55.9%

VF ( VFC), -49.8%, 13.7%, -55.8%

Salesforce ( CRM), -49.7%, 9%, -53.8%

Signature Bank ( SBNY), -48.8%, 36%, -53,8%

IDEXX Labs ( IDXX), -48.8%, 1.7%, -49.6%

Qorvo ( QRVO), -48.7%, 4.8%, -51.1%

Aptiv ( APTV), -48.5%, 4%, -50.5%

Intuit ( INTU), -48.3%, 8.7%, -52.4%

Tesla ( TSLA), -47.9%, 76.3%, -70.4%

Autodesk ( ADSK), -47.7%, 18.9%, -56%

Zebra Technologies ( ZBRA), -47.5%, 3.7%, -49.4%

GM ( GM), -47.1%, 1,6%, -47.9%

Expedia ( EXPE), -45.5%, 4.1%, -47.6%

Garmin ( GRMN), -45.2%, 2.6%, -46.6%

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From: Julius Wong5/31/2022 7:29:03 AM
   of 7094
EU leaders have reached an agreement to ban 90% of Russian crude by the end of the year as part of a sixth sanctions package the bloc is putting together against Moscow.

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From: Julius Wong6/2/2022 8:38:02 AM
3 Recommendations   of 7094
Rallies to the Bottom

After seven straight weeks of losses, the S&P 500 posted a weekly gain of 6.6% through last Friday’s close. The good news is that the market pain we’ve been experiencing might be over. As Bret Kenwell recently stated:

Each downtrend of this magnitude (seven straight weeks or more) has marked the low for at least six months.

The bad news is that Kenwell only has four data points to go on. Though we may have hit a temporary bottom, there’s nothing stopping things from going even lower in the future. In other words, last week’s gain may be the beginning of a false rally.

To this end, I thought it would be useful to exam how the U.S. stock market has bottomed historically and the false rallies that have occurred along the way.

The Biggest U.S. Market BottomsIn the realm of U.S. stock market history there are four major bottoms that come to mind—1932, 1974, 2003, and 2009. While all of these bottoms are unique in their own way, they each had at least three rallies of 10% or more on the way down.

For example, the crash that started The Great Depression had six separate rallies of over 10% before hitting bottom in July 1932. I’ve illustrated these rallies in the chart below by denoting the local bottoms (in red) followed by their local tops (in green) along with how much the marked gained between the two (in percentage terms):

If there’s one chart that illustrates the difficulty of investing in stocks, this is it. As you can see, even as the U.S. stock market was collapsing, there were multiple periods where it rallied over 20% before continuing to fall further. Just imagine how maddening this must have been for everyone, even the most seasoned investors.

Of course, not all crashes are this brutal. The crash of 1974 was more tame because it was both slower and less severe than the Great Depression. Nevertheless, by the time the market bottomed in December 1974, it had rallied by over 10% on three separate occasions:

Not only was this decline slower than the one that started The Great Depression, but most of the decline occurred in the six months right before the bottom.

Similar to the crash of 1974, the crash of 2000-2003 also experienced a slower initial decline (trading sideways for about 18 months) before the market started to come undone in 2001:

However, unlike the crash of 1974, this market experienced six separate rallies exceeding 10%! These rallies came amidst the implosion of the DotCom Bubble and following the attacks on September 11th. This illustrates just how easily false hope can build up during the toughest of times.

Last but not least, the crash of 2008-2009 is unlike any of the other crashes listed above. Why? Because it was mostly a downward journey and it occurred much more quickly than the other market crashes. As a result, it had fewer rallies and saw most of its decline occur in the span of five months from October 2008 to March 2009:

Not surprisingly, this five month window also coincides with the two biggest rallies during this time period. This makes sense because, as market history has shown us, volatility begets volatility. This means volatility to the downside and the upside. As William Bernstein stated in this discussion with Ben Carlson:

One thing that we learned from market crisis whether it’s the early 1930s or the more recent global financial crisis is that big up days, 6%, 8%, or 10% up days (like in 2008 or 2009) that’s volatility. And volatility is volatility, and it’s bad.

This is why market rallies aren’t always a positive sign. Because, sometimes, these rallies are a warning of what’s to come.

The Bottom LineThough last week’s 6.6% gain may have you feeling some relief, it’s too soon to tell if we are out of the woods yet. Unfortunately, one week isn’t enough time to differentiate a false rally from a true recovery. In fact, of the 18 rallies I highlighted across the four market crashes listed above, the average length of the typical rally was two to three months. So, regardless of what’s to come, last week was just the beginning.

I don’t say this to scare you, but to provide you with a realistic understanding of how markets work. That’s how you become a better investor. You recognize the nature of the market and invest accordingly. You don’t panic. You don’t change your strategy. You educate yourself and acknowledge volatility when it rears its ugly head. As I stated in Chapter 16 of Just Keep Buying:

You have to accept that volatility is just a part of the game. It comes with the territory of being an investor.

This doesn’t mean that you have to be happy when markets decline. Trust me, I do not enjoy seeing stocks fall. But, I also don’t lose my head either. Instead, I see these occasional declines for what they are—risk.

And nothing good in life comes without risk. Not love. Not a career. Not a family. Nothing. So why should money? Why should your wealth magically compound itself at 7% a year? It shouldn’t. At least not in a straight line.

It should be a windy, windy road to get there. And that’s okay. That’s what you should expect to happen. The volatility of today should pay for the growth of tomorrow. Not in every market every time, but in most markets most of the time. That’s what matters. That’s what the data suggests.

Of course it’s easy to talk about this in a vacuum. It’s easy to point at charts of years past and say “Buy and hold”, but it’s much harder to “Buy and hold” while living through them. Then again, maybe that’s what separates the good investors from the great ones. Unfortunately, there’s only one way for you to find out.

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From: Julius Wong6/3/2022 7:52:52 AM
   of 7094
100 Days of war: Russia & Ukraine

Jun. 03, 2022 7:47 AM ET Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), CVX, XLE, WEAT JJGTF, GRU, VLO, VDEBy: Jason Capul, SA News Editor

bymuratdeniz/iStock via Getty Images

Friday marks the 100th day since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Ever since Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine on Feb. 24th, Wall Street has seen a spike in commodities specifically with regards to oil and wheat.


At the close of Feb. 23rd, the day before the attack oil prices were sitting at $92.10/bbl and yet to cross over the $100/bbl price point. That all changed on the first day, when oil spiked north of triple digits. Since Moscow’s invasion, prices of oil have soared by 25%, currently hovering near the $116/bbl level. Additionally, at one point oil peaked at $130.50/bbl just a few days after the onslaught.

Oil Companies & ETF price action over the past 100 days: Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) +23.6%, Chevron (NYSE: CVX) +27.6%, Valero Energy Corporation ( VLO) +53.3%, Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE) +27.8%, and Vanguard Energy ETF ( VDE) +29.2%.


Russia and Ukraine together represent nearly a third of the world's grain exports. As a result, once the two nations began to battle, wheat prices took off, spiking as high as 61% in just the first weeks. Wheat prices still remain elevated, above 20% since Feb.24. At the moment Wheat trades at $1,052 USd/Bu, up from its pre-war level of $882/USd/Bu.

Agriculture ETF price action over the past 100 days: Teucrium Wheat Fund (NYSEARCA: WEAT) +27.5%, Path Bloomberg Grains Subindex Total Return ( JJGTF) +21.5%, and ELEMENTS Linked to the MLCX Grains Index - Total Return ( GRU) +13.4%.

What was thought to be by some a quick takeover by Russia has turned into a slow grueling war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian operations control one-fifth of the country. Far from being over thrown, Ukrainian forces continue to fight which can more than likely continue to fuel higher commodity prices across the board.

On the broader markets, stock futures are lower Friday with another major voice warning of a troubled economy.

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