SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

   Strategies & Market TrendsEffective Collaboration - Team Research for Better Returns:


Previous 10 Next 10 
To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (6482)6/23/2021 6:34:46 PM
From: The Ox
   of 6637
 
Sorry, can't see the image:


Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: The Ox who wrote (6483)6/23/2021 6:50:58 PM
From: bull_dozer
1 Recommendation   of 6637
 
From Jacob's profile and the price he mentioned, my guess would be PAAS. :-)


Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: bull_dozer who wrote (6484)6/23/2021 7:57:44 PM
From: Jacob Snyder
1 Recommendation   of 6637
 
Yes. Read my mind. It was a chart of PAAS with a horizontal line at 28.

I seem to have forgotten how to post charts with my IPad. No, I did not have an IPad 7 years ago. Why do we have to constantly change how we communicate? I miss my PC. And faxing. And circular writing.

Cretan hieroglyphs , 1900 bc:


Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


From: Sultan6/24/2021 7:28:10 PM
1 Recommendation   of 6637
 

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2)


To: Sultan who wrote (6486)6/25/2021 3:33:51 PM
From: The Ox
2 Recommendations   of 6637
 
Wolf Street



Fed’s Lowest Lowball Inflation Gauge “Core PCE” Spikes Most Since 1983by Wolf Richter • Jun 25, 2021 • 32 Comments

There are whole generations who never experienced this type of inflation, this type of destruction of the dollar’s purchasing power.By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.The Fed’s favorite inflation measure – which is the lowest inflation measure the US government provides – spiked further in May to multi-decade highs. Sure, it’s just “temporary” or “transitory” or whatever in the sense that next month and a year from now there will be a different number. But the loss of purchasing power of the consumer dollar, including the dollars earned with labor, is permanent. That won’t come back.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index without food and energy, the “core PCE” index, jumped 0.5% in May from April after having jumped 0.7% in April and 0.4% in March, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. In order to dodge the infamous but now diminishing “ Base Effect” – comparing today’s readings to the low inflation readings in the same month a year earlier – we’ll look at “annualized” core PCE inflation first.

The three months of May, April, and March combine into an annualized core PCE inflation rate of 6.4%, meaning that if price-increases continue for 12 months at the pace of the past three months, the annual inflation rate would be 6.4% as measured by the lowest lowball measure published in the US. This was the red-hottest three-month annualized inflation rate since August 1983.



The core PCE inflation index is the measure the Fed uses for its inflation target, which currently is 2% (green line in the chart).

The annualized core PCE inflation rate shows to what extent inflation has suddenly heated up in this spring. The Base Effect applies only to year-over-year comparisons and has no impact on these three-month annualized rates.

There are whole generations of adults out there today that have never experienced inflation like this.

Compared to May last year and not annualized, Core PCE inflation – jumped by 3.4%, the biggest year-over-year increase since early 1992.

The Fed’s target of 2% is indicated by the green line. The Fed has specified that this target is “symmetrical,” meaning that it will let inflation run a higher than 2% for a while after it ran lower than 2% for a while. And so now we have a massive overshoot:



Core PCE is the lowest lowball inflation measure in the US. The headline PCE inflation index, which includes food and energy, jumped 3.9%, according to the BEA today.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation index, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics two weeks ago, jumped 5.0% in May compared to a year ago, and by over 8% on a three-month annualized basis. The purchasing power of the consumer dollar, the CPI corollary also released by the BEA two weeks ago, plunged by 9.5% on a three-month annualized basis. These are red-hot inflation surges that many adults in the US have never seen before.

Surely, some items in the inflation basket will unwind their current price spikes to some extent, such as the historic price spike in used vehicles. But those prices won’t go back to where they were a year ago. They’ll unwind some, and then they’ll continue to rise from there. As those spikes unwind, other prices begin to surge – such as in services, and we’re already seeing that.

These price spikes that then unwind are the “transitory” part of inflation – meaning those price spikes won’t go on forever. But prices are already taking turns with their spikes.

But there is now a “persistent” part of inflation in the works. This is something we’re seeing that we haven’t seen in decades: The mindset has changed. Price resistance has gone away. Consumers and businesses are willing to pay these higher prices, are accepting higher prices, and are including them in their calculus.

Inflation has surprised the Fed to the upside all year. And this shift in the inflationary mindset makes it likely that a portion of this surge in inflation will persist and that inflation rates will continue to surprise the Fed to the upside.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: The Ox who wrote (6487)6/25/2021 3:59:53 PM
From: Jacob Snyder
   of 6637
 
OK, so if the Fed’s inflation target is “symmetrical “, that means they will not worry if inflation goes to 5%+ for years, because that just “balances” the last 25 years when inflation was often below their 2% target.

Now I understand why they are buying mortgage-based bonds and keeping the 10Y Treasury yield at 1.5% during a housing bubble.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


From: bull_dozer6/25/2021 4:22:07 PM
2 Recommendations   of 6637
 
America is warned to brace for up to four YEARS of rising inflation - as Fed's preferred inflation measure posts biggest annual increase since 1992

Bank of America report speculates high inflation could last two to four years
Contradicts Fed Chair Jerome Powell's insistence soaring prices are transitory
On Friday, government released new inflation data from PCE Price IndexCore PCE Index rose 3.4% on the year in May, the quickest rise since 1992

dailymail.co.uk

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


From: Julius Wong6/26/2021 6:05:56 PM
1 Recommendation   of 6637
 
Construction firms, steelmakers jump on Biden deal but many hurdles remain

Jun. 24, 2021 7:45 PM ETAA, CAT... By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor 181 Comments

shaunl/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images

Caterpillar ( CAT +2.6%) and Vulcan Materials ( VMC +3.3%) ranked among today's biggest gainers after President Biden announced an infrastructure deal with a bipartisan group of centrist senators.

Other relevant gainers include MLM +2.5%, SUM +4.3%, GVA +4.9%, MTZ +3.5%, ROAD +3.5%, ASTE +3.8%, FLR +4.5%, J +2.5%, DY +5.8%, GLDD +3.6%, AQUA +2.3%, PRIM +4%, ACM +3.1%, PWR +2.5%, OSK +2.1%, EXP +1.4%.

Steel producers rose across the board: X +3.4%, CLF +3.2%, NUE +2%, STLD +2.1%.

Also: AA +3.8%, CENX +3.5%, CMC +4%.

The agreement features $579B of spending above expected federal levels and a total $973B of investment over five years - $1.2T if continued over eight years.

Passage is by no means assured: The bill excludes spending on education, health care and poverty issues, which Democrats will try to push through in a separate budget maneuver later this summer - and passing two complex bills through different procedures at the same time will present a difficult challenge.

The deal framework does not contain new money for electric vehicle rebates but would spend $15B for EV charging stations and electric school buses.

The agreement does not include a per-mile fee on electric vehicles or index gasoline taxes to adjust for inflation.

Blink Charging ( BLNK +4.1%) rallied on the news, but most EV-related stocks fell, including CHPT -3%, WKHS -2.6%, RIDE -1.8%, GOEV -1.8%, LI -1.6%, FSR -1.2%.

The plan also could be threatened by tight supplies of some materials, and the companies that pave the roads and build the bridges appear to have made few plans to meet those needs.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


From: Sultan6/27/2021 1:57:53 AM
2 Recommendations   of 6637
 
Analysts take a shine to solar, seeing shares at attractive entry point

seekingalpha.com

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


From: Julius Wong6/27/2021 7:28:00 AM
2 Recommendations   of 6637
 
Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead

Jun. 27, 2021 7:09 AM ETALXO, APO, AYI...

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Stitcher and Spotify.

Economic reports in the week ahead

The earnings calendar is light next week as the first half of the year comes to a close, but Micron (NASDAQ: MU), General Mills (NYSE: GIS) and Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ: WBA) will still turn heads with their reports. The IPO market heats up again in a big way, with the resurrection of Krispy Kreme ( DNUT) as a publicly-traded company. At the end of the week, the U.S. jobs report blasts in to expectations for a 600K jump in nonfarm payrolls. Infrastructure legislation talk in D.C. will extend for another week. That could mean more action for names like Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC), United Rentals (NYSE: URI), Jacobs Engineering (NYSE: J), U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) and Martin Marietta Materials (NYSE: MLM).

Earnings spotlight: Monday, June 28th: Herman Miller (NASDAQ: MLHR)

Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, June 29th: Enerpac Tool Group (NYSE: EPAC) and FactSet (NYSE: FDS).

Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, June 30th: Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY), General Mills ( GIS), Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) and Micron ( MU),

Earnings spotlight: Thursday, July 1st: Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI), McCormick (NYSE: MKC) and Walgreens Boots Alliance ( WBA).

Earnings spotlight: Friday, July 2nd: CarMax (NYSE: KMX).

IPO watch: A busy week is setting up for new companies stepping into the public light. IPOs expected to trade next week include DingDong ( DDL), SentinelOne ( S), Intapp ( INTA), Xometry ( XMTR), Integral Ad Science Holding ( IAS), CVRx ( CVRX), D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret ( HEPS), Krispy Kreme ( DNUT) and Torrid Holdings ( CURV). Across the Pacific, the XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) listing in Hong Kong will be priced next week at the lower end of the international offer price or at HK$180, whichever is lower.

M&A tidbits: Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) and Canadian National Railway (NYSE: CNI) will be watched closely with comments due in from the Surface Transportation Board on June 29. The go-shop period on the Cloudera (NYSE: CLDR) buyout expires on July 1. The PRA Health Sciences (NASDAQ: PRAH)-ICON Public Limited (NASDAQ: ICLR) merger is scheduled to close on July 1.

Healthcare watch: The FDA action date on MediWound (NASDAQ: MDWD) and Vericel (NASDAQ: VCEL) for NexoBrid arrives next week. A $200M total addressable market is seen for NexoBrid if it is approved. ALX Oncology Holdings (NASDAQ: ALXO) is due to present data on ALX148 and Trastuzumab at the ESMO 23rd World Congress at the end of the week.

Projected dividend increases (quarterly): Companies expected to boost their payouts next week include PNC Financial (NYSE: PNC) to $1.25 from $1.15, Walgreens Boots Alliance ( WBA) to $0.4775 from $0.4675, Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) to $0.985 from $0.965 and Bank OZK (NASDAQ: OZK) to $0.2825 from $0.28.

Krispy Kreme IPO preview: Krispy Kreme ( DNUT) is making its second run as a publicly-traded company. Krispy Kreme will raise about $600M at the midpoint of its expected pricing range and have a valuation of around $3.8B."Krispy Kreme's story has changed over the years, and expanded beyond the company's original product lines to include a broader reaching product assortment (doughnuts, coffee, packaged goods, and its Insomnia Cookies brand subsidiary) and global footprint (domestic/international company-operated & franchised units, distribution, and retail business)," updates MKM Partners analyst Brett Levy on the IPO.

Torrid IPO preview: Torrid Holdings ( CURV) plans to offer 8M shares in a price range of $18 to $21. Torrid is the largest direct-to-consumer brand of women’s plus-size apparel and intimates in North America. Torrid has over 600 stores in operation across 36 U.S. states. The IPO is the first for the mall sector in over two years.

Corporate spotlight: Shopify (NYSE: SHOP) streams its Shopify Unite developer conference on June 29. The online retailer says the event will feature a first look at new products and features. Also on June 29, United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) holds an investor event called United Next during which a large aircraft order could be announced and Jack in the Box (NASDAQ: JACK) holds its Investor Day. ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) will host a virtual market update on June 30. Check out Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of the events to watch and timing.

Data watch: The first few days of the month will see firearm background checks data reported, Macau gross gaming revenue for June reported and a batch of U.S. auto sales and deliveries reports arrive. Keep an eye on Ford (NYSE: F), General Motors (NYSE: GM), Nio (NYSE: NIO), Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI), XPeng ( XPEV) and Toyota (NYSE: TM) for their updates, while Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Q2 deliveries report will be the headliner. Most estimates on Tesla fall in a range of 185K to 195K deliveries for the quarter. Shares of Tesla are up more than 10% over the last week.

Conferences rundown: Conferences scheduled to run during the week include the Credit Suisse Sustainability Week, the SVB Leerink CNS Forum and the Cantor Fitzgerald International Cannabis Forum. The Mobile World Congress event out of Barcelona will also draw some attention in the tech sector. Check out Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch for a detailed list of events to watch.

Notable annual meetings: Annual meetings of interest scheduled for next week include Hostess Brands (TWK) on June 28 and CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) on June 30. Also of interest, June 28 is the record date for the Genesco (NYSE: GCO) annual meeting scheduled for July 20. Shareholders of record will be entitled to vote on the company's slate of directors or activist Legion Partners' nominees.

Barron's mentions

Hertz Global ( OTCPK:HTZGQ) is called attractive even after shares doubled following Knighthead Capital Management, Certares Management and Apollo Global Management (NYSE: APO) winning a bidding contest in May for the car rental company. Even more upside is expected after the reorganization when Hertz shares are due to be exchanged for a combination of $1.53 a share in cash, 3% of the stock in the reorganized company and warrants for 18% of the new, post-bankruptcy company. Meanwhile, Chart Industries (NYSE: GTLS) is called a stock that offers investors a way to play both the rebound in traditional energy and the transition to new forms of it, while mortgage insurers NMI Holdings (NASDAQ: NMIH), Essent Group (NYSE: ESNT) and MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG) are said to look inexpensive at single-digit price-earnings ratios and low price-to-book ratios. Also of note, the publication's list of top CEO for 2021 includes Chipotle's (NYSE: CMG) Brian Niccol, Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) Jensen Huang and General Motors' ( GM) Mary Barra.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read
Previous 10 Next 10