| From: Julius Wong | 4/1/2021 9:11:36 AM | | | | | | Can the stock market crash during an economic boom?
It's hard to believe it was only a year ago that the economy was essentially put on ice. There were quarantines. Shutdowns. Closures of businesses, schools, supply chains, and our everyday way of life. This led to the worst quarterly economic contraction on record in the second quarter of 2020, clocking in at an annualized –34%.
Yet somehow we are now on track for an economic boom.
Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent outlook piece they now expect 8% economic growth in 2021 and an unemployment rate of 4% by year-end. They think the unemployment rate could reach as low as 3.2% by 2023. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen thinks we could be back at full employment as early as next year.
Of course, there is a reason for this lightning-quick turnaround. The government has helped keep things afloat by spending and sending out gobs of money. Trillions of dollars have been sent to businesses, municipalities, and individuals, including the most recent $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.
So that enormous contraction was likely the fastest recession in U.S. history as well. And the sheer amount of government spending means we could see one of the biggest economic booms ever coming out of a downturn.
Investors have now gone from worrying about the potential for another Great Depression last March to the biggest risk being an inflationary spike from a combination of government spending, supply constraints, and pent-up demand as people get vaccinated.
Inflation can be harmful to the stock market, but it's hard to imagine investors selling their stocks in the midst of an economic boom.
Has the stock market ever crashed as the economy soared?
It's rare, but it has happened before.
Going back to the 1930s, which is essentially when GDP as a metric was invented, real economic growth in the United States has averaged roughly 3% per year. The stock market is not the economy, but there is a relationship between GDP growth and the market over time, especially when growth is high.
This is not a perfect relationship, but you can see the higher real GDP growth goes, the higher average annual stock market returns tend to go.
Averages can often hide outliers, and the one outlier here was 1937. Real GDP growth came in at over 5%, but the S&P 500 finished the year down 35%. However, one of the reasons stocks fell so hard that year is the economy began to slow by the end of the year, which led to a recession that lasted until 1938.
The highest growth with a down stock market came in 1941 when GDP was up double digits year over year while the S&P 500 finished the year down almost 11%. This was an instance in which investors were spooked from World War II.
Otherwise, stocks have generally seen strong returns when economic growth is so high. In seven out of the 11 years when real GDP growth was 8% or higher, the stock market was up double digits.
So it's relatively rare for the stock market to fall concurrently with a booming economy.
There is one caveat that may apply with today's environment though. While it's rare for the stock market to fall during a booming economy, it's also rare for the stock market to boom in the midst of a nasty recession like it did in 2020.
There is the possibility of a “sell the news” reaction by investors now that the market is already up around 80% from the bottom in late March 2020. That is a risk worth considering.
However, betting against the stock market against the backdrop of what could be the strongest economic environment since the 1990s seems like an even riskier proposition.
fortune.com |
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| To: Julius Wong who wrote (6249) | 4/1/2021 10:03:32 AM | | From: The Ox | | | | | The key will be the Fed punch bowl. If they take it away, then yes, the markets can go down during an economic boom/expansion. It doesn't look like that will be the case for several quarters but it's certainly something to keep an eye on. More likely, the markets will temper their angle of ascent and grow but more slowly than the past 11 months. |
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| From: Cogito Ergo Sum | 4/2/2021 11:32:53 AM | | | | | | From Message 33265687
As an aside but related.. bought CP Rail last week..
Message 33260423
And excerpt from a PM to SI buddy
Snip
So I looked at the network map for KC southern that CP is taking (hopefully).. Mexico is nice I guess.. but they run right along the Gulf coast through Houston .. So thinking that Keystone XL is dead.. long enough to be of value.. rail might work..
Creel the current guy liked this when still Hunter's protégé.. but Hunter was adverse because of course the tank car investment is poof if a pipe goes through .. Now I see no pipe... and I see the the oil companies will need to go longer term commitment so CP order book will be stable.. (Hunter's fear of pipe going in gone.)
thoughts
Snip
Looking ok so far |
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| From: Julius Wong | 4/3/2021 7:29:38 AM | | | | | | Uranium, lithium names rally on clean energy optimism
Apr. 01, 2021 2:44 PM ET Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC) By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor 63 Comments
Investors hunting for a way to capitalize on President Biden's big plans for clean energy infrastructure are latching on to uranium names, which are moving broadly higher in today's trading.
While nuclear energy is not specifically mentioned in the $2T infrastructure proposal, its federally mandated "energy efficiency and clean electricity standard" would seem difficult to achieve without it.
Presidential climate advisor Gina McCarthy says nuclear energy should be one of the power sources eligible for a national Clean Energy Standard mentioned in the Biden plan.
After posting gains yesterday, shares are accelerating higher: UEC +9.9%, DNN +7.3%, URG +7.3%, UUUU +5.1%, OTCQX:FCUUF +5%, NXE +4.7%, CCJ +3.9%, OTCQX:WSTRF +3.8%.
Two new research reports from BMO Capital and Morgan Stanley say today's uranium prices mark a floor and predict a rally in prices over the next few years to ~$50/lb. by 2024.
Most lithium names are stronger too: LTHM +8.9%, ALB +3.6%, SQM +2.5%.
ETFs: URA, URNM, LIT |
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| From: Julius Wong | 4/3/2021 7:35:15 AM | | | | | | Semiconductor stocks gain after Micron earnings beat, TSMC's $100B capacity plan
Apr. 01, 2021 12:05 PM ET Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS) By: Brandy Betz, SA News Editor 9 Comments
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 2.3% compared to the 1.5% gain for the broader tech sector (NYSEARCA: XLK) after a positive earnings report from Micron, rumors of a Kioxia deal, and TSMC's $100B capacity expansion investment.
Micron reported upside fiscal Q2 results driven by particularly strong demand in mobile, industrials, and automotive. The company forecast a strong FQ3 as DRAM demand continues to outpace supply and NAND stabilizes.
Despite the current "severe" DRAM shortage, Micron plans to stick with its "conservative" capex strategy for the year.
Micron and memory peer Western Digital were at the center of one support saying the companies were considering separate bids for NAND giant Kioxia. But another report said Kioxia would prefer to pursue an IPO.
Foundry giant TSMC plans to spend $100B over the next three years to expand its fab capacity. TSMC had already forecast 2021 capex of $25-28B.
Top semiconductor movers today include semi equipment and adjacent names Brooks Automation ( BRKS +6.9%), Entegris ( ENTG +5.6%), Teradyne ( TER +3.6%), Lam Research ( LRCX +5.2%), Applied Materials ( AMAT +4.7%), KLA ( KLAC +3.4%), and ASML ( ASML +1.4%).
Related: Yesterday, semi stocks got a boost after President Biden unveiled a $2T infrastructure plan that requested a $50B investment in domestic semiconductor manufacturing. |
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