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   PastimesThe Philosophical Porch

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To: Real Man who wrote (23054)8/5/2024 8:51:58 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 24018
 
NVDA down over 14%. AI stocks and Megacap tech getting hit the worst.

That is where the leverage was.

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To: Real Man who wrote (23055)8/5/2024 8:54:05 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 24018
 
You are right about that. No shorts. But this can accelerate tremendously as the session goes on. Some traders will be jumping off the roof tops.

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To: Real Man who wrote (23055)8/5/2024 8:57:22 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 24018
 
I sure hope Powell isn't stupid enough to do an emergency rate cut today. It will make things worse and I put in a couple of big orders for T-Bills yesterday.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (23057)8/5/2024 9:13:50 AM
From: Real Man
   of 24018
 
Agg is up slightly pre market. Curious if AAA corporate bonds can hold up. The bond fund was not hit in 2008-2011 GFC.

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To: Real Man who wrote (23059)8/5/2024 9:15:55 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 24018
 
Premarket JAAA is down .22%

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To: Rarebird who wrote (23060)8/5/2024 9:23:56 AM
From: Real Man
   of 24018
 
Owning puts over the weekend would be nice, vix gone crazy.

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To: Real Man who wrote (23061)8/5/2024 10:26:38 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 24018
 
Sold my complete stake in TLT.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (23062)8/5/2024 10:45:45 AM
From: Real Man
   of 24018
 
Going into T-bills or BTD on something?

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To: Real Man who wrote (23063)8/5/2024 11:20:16 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 24018
 
I put an order in for 6 months T-Bills last night.

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To: Real Man who wrote (23063)8/5/2024 11:24:51 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 24018
 
I'm afraid this decline is just the tip of the iceberg as long as the Japanese Yen continues to rally. Leverage in the system was built on the Yen carry trade; now this trade is reversing. Plus, the 2 and 10 year are about to un-invert.

I agree with you there will be bounces, but they will now be met with selling the next day if not sooner. Lowering rates will only exacerbate the situation.

I sold off a little more than half of my remaining portfolio this morning.

People can say what they want, but I think we are in the early innings of this reverse carry trade and its implications.

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