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Pastimes The Philosophical Porch

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To: Rarebird who wrote (23031)	8/4/2024 1:33:15 PM
From: edward miller	of 24303

Could be a stale message. Thinking of how we were at virtually zero rates not that long ago. The only way I can make sense of that message is if Schwab combined the risks for all Treasury issues, regardless of maturity. Seems stupid to me, but what else makes sense? The only risk in 6 month bills is inflation eating the value of money, and that is not much. Better than market risk right now. Disclosure: I am >80% T-Bills.

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From: Rarebird	8/4/2024 5:59:31 PM
	of 24303

Recent sell off is all about the reverse carry trade in regard to the Japanese Yen. By lowering rates, the Fed will make the short squeeze in the Yen worse as interest rate differentials narrow. That would spark more leveraged selling by borrowers of what was formerly cheap Yen in risk-on assets.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (23051)	8/4/2024 6:08:38 PM
From: Rarebird	1 Recommendation of 24303

I will strongly consider buying Bitcoin as a hedge once it hits 44K.

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From: Rarebird	8/5/2024 2:49:46 AM
	of 24303

Reverse carry trade is gaining lots of steam tonight. If this continues, there will be a global margin call and a massive credit event. To think that on Wednesday, the A/D line hit a new all time high. All of a sudden this happened with talk of a rate cut. I sold slightly more than half my portfolio on Friday. Maybe I should have sold everything. But I did derisk my portfolio tremendously. A lot depends on how AAA and AA corporate debt performs tomorrow.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (23048)	8/5/2024 5:49:49 AM
From: Real Man	of 24303

Yep. Things are crashing, Bitcoin at 52K

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To: Rarebird who wrote (23049)	8/5/2024 8:50:07 AM
From: Real Man	of 24303

I think it may be too late for shorts. A trader in me would buy something on Monday, this is a crash.

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To: Real Man who wrote (23054)	8/5/2024 8:51:58 AM
From: Rarebird	of 24303

NVDA down over 14%. AI stocks and Megacap tech getting hit the worst. That is where the leverage was.

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To: Real Man who wrote (23055)	8/5/2024 8:54:05 AM
From: Rarebird	of 24303

You are right about that. No shorts. But this can accelerate tremendously as the session goes on. Some traders will be jumping off the roof tops.

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To: Real Man who wrote (23055)	8/5/2024 8:57:22 AM
From: Rarebird	of 24303

I sure hope Powell isn't stupid enough to do an emergency rate cut today. It will make things worse and I put in a couple of big orders for T-Bills yesterday.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (23057)	8/5/2024 9:13:50 AM
From: Real Man	of 24303

Agg is up slightly pre market. Curious if AAA corporate bonds can hold up. The bond fund was not hit in 2008-2011 GFC.

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