| To: Rarebird who wrote (23035) | 8/2/2024 10:53:46 PM | | From: Investor2 | | | | I just put in a bid for a small 6-month T-Bill at auction on the Schwab web site. I didn't see anything unusual.
"Buy at Auction $10,000 US Treasury BILL 02/06/2025 @ Market, Day Only"
I2 |
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| To: Real Man who wrote (23039) | 8/3/2024 9:08:36 AM | | From: Rarebird | | | | | That's a very good attitude and longer term view for a change. But I hope you realize that a retracement can be sharp especially if the market gets a couple of better than expected weekly jobless claims. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (23040) | 8/3/2024 12:59:34 PM | | From: Real Man | | | | | USA can’t afford rates higher than ZIRP. I am not sure what happens next, could be hyperinflation. When you get bearish (on stocks), it may be close to a bottom (in stocks) -g- August-October are not good months for stocks. |
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| To: Real Man who wrote (23041) | 8/3/2024 2:24:19 PM | | From: Rarebird | | | | Inflation has already peaked. The threat is deflation.
As for my portfolio, I have done very well this year, in particular, over the past month.
If I remember correctly, I was the one who emphatically said that TLT bottomed and would rally to over $100 on this move while you were thinking of selling long Bonds. Ok, I was a bit surprised TLT went parabolic right away after my call.
The problem with you is that you are usually so acutely bearish that you don't realize that a portfolio can be set up where you make money in down markets.
And yes, I do think there is likely one more big rally left to reach my targets.
It is possible that the market has overreacted to the most recent economic data.
Two thirds of my portfolio is in income related stocks with high dividend yields that will hold up well in a downturn, how serious of a downturn, that I am not sure about. But I take life one day at a time.
I am a player who makes adjustments along the way.
I am no bag holder. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (23042) | 8/3/2024 2:55:07 PM | | From: Real Man | | | | | I was just pretty scared going long bonds since I am not a bottom picker, and I still am pretty scared. I am exposed to some credit risk since I am long a general bond fund rather than TLT. The bonds are AAA-s and treasuries but we know from 2008 how AAAs can turn into Ds. I think the Fed will protect bonds though. I don’t think that bonds go opposite to stocks, not necessarily, in the last 3 years these go together. I don’t short anything. I am not cocky at this point either. Bonds tend to have a problem with the Fed’s printing press, I just think there might be a long enough time window between bonds responding negatively to a new round of QE and rate cuts. Maybe these markets will respond traditionally, bonds up when stocks down into recession. |
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