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   PastimesThe Philosophical Porch

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To: Real Man who wrote (14206)7/15/2022 10:08:20 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 25281
 
All one needs to do is look at the inverted yield curve to see that a recession is coming, if not already here, as Atlanta Fed says. Perhaps if you strip away the inflation component, retail sales were not that strong, perhaps negative. I don't know how to calculate that. Do you?


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To: Real Man who wrote (14206)7/15/2022 10:14:14 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 25281
 
I have been saying for years that market is reactive, not forward looking. I think the issue moving forward is deflation, not inflation. Fed will pause by 4th quarter. I think September hike is last one in this cycle. The problem moving forward is economic slowdown and recession. Fed went to far.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (14209)7/15/2022 10:15:50 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 25281
 
I increased my AZO long earlier in the session.

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To: Real Man who wrote (14206)7/15/2022 10:23:26 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 25281
 
I have been market neutral for a good chunk of the year. Recently, I have gone net long and have suffered the consequences, especially this week, not today so far.

Some stocks have already bottomed out. I went long HHS a few months ago and it has almost doubled.

Message 33739177

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To: Rarebird who wrote (14211)7/15/2022 10:26:24 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 25281
 
AZO: a break above $2210 is stimulus for next leg up.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (14208)7/15/2022 10:29:55 AM
From: Real Man
   of 25281
 
Yes, and Fed funds futures which project further hikes of 200 bp by December, then a pause

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To: Rarebird who wrote (14212)7/15/2022 10:32:23 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 25281
 
TXN had a very long, drawn out extended 4th wave down. I could be wrong, of course, but it looks to me that it has bottomed and headed up substantially, not a double, but 50%+ rise. Won't be straight up.

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To: Rarebird who wrote (14189)7/15/2022 10:35:53 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum
   of 25281
 
Closed my oil short HOD.To and added to my ZEB.TO (Canada banks 4.10% yield) near the open

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To: Real Man who wrote (14213)7/15/2022 10:37:04 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 25281
 
I think the decline in inflation is going to be pretty dramatic by Q4. July hike and most likely September.

Future traders are totally reactive, not forward looking at all. They are known to turn on a dime.

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From: Rarebird7/15/2022 10:41:04 AM
   of 25281
 
XLV looks to have bottomed at $125.03 yesterday morning. Wave 5 up in progress. $142 first local stop.

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