| From: Rarebird | 7/13/2022 6:31:19 PM | | | | | | Schumer wants to pass a reconciliation bill to raise taxes on the rich. Not a very good idea during a economic downturn.
I can support Medicare negotiating drug prices with Big Pharma. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (14197) | 7/15/2022 8:11:52 AM | | From: Real Man | | | | | It’s a sad sight, Biden is too sick to be President. Someone else took over and is running US, someone evil. I have seen dementia destroy very smart men to the degree that they don’t recognize their spouses and children. He should resign, not that Harris is any better, but at least she is aware of her surroundings. Biden knows an escalation with Russia can lead to a nuclear war, but he is too sick the thought escapes him. A single 100 megaton Russian ICBM sarmat will level US East coast entirely. The idiots are cheering a nuclear ww3 disaster thinking we can win. We will all have to live in Antarctica, those who survive by a miracle. Biden in his speech refers to ww3, and then just stops etc., a sad sight. He seems to understand it in his moments of clarity. |
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| To: Real Man who wrote (14201) | 7/15/2022 8:26:39 AM | | From: Rarebird | | | | Whether one is liberal or conservative, what Biden has done in terms of cutting off US energy supply and production is criminal.
I do think Biden is cowtowing to part of his base. But that is no excuse.
Gold: the inflation argument for Gold has no merit at these prices. Not that I would short Gold here. I'm looking to buy Gold once the Fed pauses. Question is what will it take. Ag and energy prices have already come down quite a bit, but not reflected yet in backward CPI. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (14202) | 7/15/2022 8:39:01 AM | | From: Real Man | | | | I don’t think US or Europe can handle the rate hikes, but we shall see. This feels like popping of the bubble in everything. If so, the economy and the stock market will be very bad for decades to come. I would watch for derivative risk market, what pushes gold down is about to implode because of decades of mispricing of risk. The market will soon have a derivative domino moment, hard to say exactly when. Probably this Fall. Gold will likely reverse as it was suppressed by derivatives (no yield yada yada yada, but 0 account of no printing, but derivatives pile on the short side)
Gold is dropping because of AU-USD carry. It will reverse because derivative models are wrong and fail to account for infinite supply of dollars vs finite supply of gold. Those who keep shorting in the currency market will become victims of the blow up. Rates are getting more negative so far.
If us falls into recession (now not if but when, I expect an acknowledgement later this month), but inflation fails to come down gold will shine. |
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| To: Real Man who wrote (14203) | 7/15/2022 8:56:56 AM | | From: Rarebird | | | | There is no question that raising rates has resulted in a valuation correction. So far, the decline has been quite orderly with hedge funds and big players reducing leverage.
I have a pretty big long position in IEF. Short term is a bit dicey, but intermediate term looks very bullish.
TSM had a strong earnings report recently. The chip bill should alleviate supply concerns down the road.
US needs to embrace self-reliance and cut the Greenie BS.
What the US Fed is doing now is very different than Japan with different consequences. Normalizing rates is a good thing. I don't see secular bear yet. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (14204) | 7/15/2022 9:05:11 AM | | From: Rarebird | | | | | Empire Manufacturing index showed a very nice decline in price component. Plus import prices were down significantly. Retail sales remain strong. That is not a lagging indicator. |
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| To: Rarebird who wrote (14204) | 7/15/2022 9:44:47 AM | | From: Real Man | | | | First quarter US real gdp declined, we will have our second quarter number some time end of July. A negative number will mean US has entered a recession. Don’t forget the number is a real number, so inflation is subtracted. So far accelerating inflation and slowing growth in June makes it likely the GDP growth number for the second quarter will also be negative. If it happens , US is in a recession since the start of the year or end of last year.
European economy is in total shit, European PMs are on resignation spree, so I think it comes here, at least the economy part. Never seen US President resign. Reason for usd strength is shit in Europe. |
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