| To: rkrw who wrote (135) | 6/29/2006 4:26:59 PM | | From: dr.praveen | | | | | I don't have anything personal against TEVA. I just did n't like the way they pumped Copaxone after T's withdrawl. Now they are getting a taste of their own medicine from Big pharma. I am not saying all is doom n gloom for TEVA though :-) I felt their valuation was high 6 months ago. |
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| To: dr.praveen who wrote (137) | 6/29/2006 5:05:46 PM | | From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL | | | | >>I felt their [TEVA] valuation was high 6 months ago.
It is still high. Best I can tell Copaxone accounts for most if not all of their net income and it is off-patent.
Who knows - maybe MNTA can dupe it and send TEVA to 15 where it belongs. (Pumping my positions - two with one post.) :-)
My wife has done fairly well on Copaxone and it does not make you sick every time you get a shot. So it seems the best of the choices when T is not available.
ij |
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| To: dr.praveen who wrote (137) | 6/29/2006 9:35:38 PM | | From: rkrw | | | | Today...
Biosimilar interferon gets negative opinion
The EMEA's CHMP issued a negative opinion on an MAA for Alpheon, a biosimilar recombinant human interferon alfa-2a from BioPartners (Zug, Switzerland), to treat chronic HCV. CHMP said it had "major" quality concerns and said there were differences between Alpheon and the reference product, Roferon-A interferon alfa-2a from Roche (SWX:ROCZ). |
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| To: rkrw who wrote (141) | 6/30/2006 11:34:05 AM | | From: DewDiligence_on_SI | | | | Copaxone accounted for nearly 30% of teva's sales in q1, how can it comprise just 15% of profits at branded margins?
You’re double counting (among other errors).
TEVA splits Copaxone 50/50 with SNY.
TEVA’s share of 1Q06 Copaxone sales was $165M, which was 9.8% of TEVA’s overall 1Q06 sales of $1.67B. |
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| To: DewDiligence_on_SI who wrote (140) | 6/30/2006 12:44:54 PM | | From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL | | | | >> Best I can tell Copaxone accounts for most if not all of their net income and it is off-patent.
>Do you consider 15% “most”?
Hardly.
Run rate Copaxone sales $1.3B
Overall GM 47% which dramatically understates the Copaxone margin by including the generics.
So assume the GM is 80%. Thus, gross profits from $1.3B is $1.04B.
That would account for most if not all of the net income.
BTW, what really is the NI of TEVA? Did you notice the writeoff of $1B in R&D in 1Q? What is the future income driver now that the pharma's are taking back the golden goose of "exclusivity"?
Bottom line, Copaxone is a very large part (perhaps even most or all) of the TEVA net income.
ij |
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| From: tuck | 7/24/2006 12:25:00 PM | | | | | | MNTA is up almost 13% this morning on no news I can find. Volume does not suggest that someone large knows something. I therefore think it's a retail bounce in a volatile stock. I own some stock and sold a bunch of puts, all of which are under water. The put selling strategy worked great until April. Anyhow, given the above, I just bought a few shorter term puts. MNTA is trying to push through its 50 day MAs on basically nothing but a market bounce. I think that'll be fairly strong resistance, and the next time the market gives up some ground, MNTA will be doing so as well.
stockcharts.com
Just my humble opinion, FWIW. I'd love to be wrong. If it gets through the 50 days, it's got some room to run. I'll take a small loss on my August puts and be very, very, happy.
Cheers, Tuck |
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