|To: Wade who wrote (60393)||9/18/2021 11:48:46 PM|
|China didn't print much money during the pandemic until now while US printed $trillions and went for more.|
What China did was to slowly burst bubbles and deleveraging the crises one by one under controlled fashion instead allowing them bursting all at once thanks to the ultra low interest rate in the US.
We all know now that Federal Reserve System is actually working with Treasury side-by-side and not an independent institution any longer. This is the situation becoming very interesting because they have becoming a political tool and integrated into the total war game with China.
The recent Evergrande collapse in China could be saved if the interest rate in the US stayed low as usual. However, if the Fed's calculation indicates that it will crash China without hurting us much they may decide to crank up the interest rate next week in the FOMC meeting. They can lower it in the later days any way. Of course, we will become unwillingly collateral damaged goods. However, if they found out by doing that US could hurt badly FOMC will stay on course of low interest rate. All of the stocks and miners will rally again. It is a war, man.
Why US is taking on China like we did with USSR? I think it is for the greater good of the national benefits. ha
I suggest you to watch movie "Tom Clancy’s Without Remorse". You can find it on Amazon prime. It is just a moving but so cruel.
What may come down is the Fed to raise the rate while the market crashed worldwide and the $3.5 trillion or even more, infrastructure bill will pass. We shall stay cool and find out bargains during crashes if there is any. Good luck.
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|To: Wade who wrote (60399)||9/23/2021 11:19:37 AM|
|The big difference between Evergrande vs Lehman moment is the debt to asset ratios. From what I understood is the the ratio of 1 to 1 for Evergrande, but 30 to 1 for Lehman and most of US banks at the same time in 2007. When Lehman fell it triggered highly leveraged international derivative markets of ~ $2 Quadrillion. It was a total meltdown of the worldwide central banks until the US congress gave them the power to print $ as needed. It is still going on and there is no end to fix the $2 quadrillion hole. |
It appears China is trying to make whole or at least partially for their domestic bond holders of Evergrande. We shall see if there is more mines. I think it is not going to be even close to what we saw back in 2007-9. Well...what do I know.
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