From: bull_dozer | 9/13/2021 7:22:53 PM | | | | What to Expect From Gold and Silver Going Forward
While we believe a huge precious metals bull market lies in front of us, we must also be aware that challenges remain over the medium term. Since the beginning of 2021, the average gold stock is down about 10%; in comparison, the average energy stock is up over 60%. The question for precious metals investors is how long this period of price consolidation will last.
We believe the current consolidation period is not yet over. We have long argued the upcoming bull market will be driven by western investors, as it was back in the 1970s. In contrast, the bull market between 2000 and 2012 was driven by eastern buyers who believed gold was a cheap asset class that had to be accumulated and held.
Back in 2000, the US and Europe consumed approximately 700 tonnes of gold combined. By 2012, as the first leg of the gold bull market was ending, their consumption had fallen to 460 tonnes. Gold had gone from $250 per ounce to $1,900 per ounce while western consumption had fallen. In other words, there was no participation from western buyers even though gold prices advanced over seven-fold. Over the same period, India and China went from consuming 1,150 tonnes combined in 2000 to 2,400 tonnes by 2013. Clearly, the major source of buying during the last gold bull market came from the East with no net participation from the West.
blog.gorozen.com |
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To: Pianoman1997 who wrote (60392) | 9/14/2021 10:13:54 AM | From: Wade | | | It is very possible. However, Chinese gov. has been tightening the lending and money flow trying to control the leverage of the real estate and the bank reserves for a couple of years. It will be hurt but may not be like Lehman's domino collapse. We shall see. |
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To: Wade who wrote (60390) | 9/14/2021 4:40:50 PM | From: Rollocaster | | | Hi Wade,
Thx for sharing.
Biggest position is TFPM... A solid new comer in the Streaming business.
On the bid for GOAU (interesting holdings), GBR.v (shorted GBRR.ca and rotating proceeds into GBR)
If markets tank.... will watch GOEX (intesting holdings), JNUG, MAG, HL
Watching PT and PLD... very carefully.... The car market makes me hesitate a little though
GTCH interesting story and even more interesting drill results .... Tier2 potential ?
Strategy?
Cash rich, profitable as is, growth story, take over candidate potential, strong near term catalyst, safest jurisdictions only, Precise technical analysis for entry/exist point, no chase, no FOMO, and pay attention to the tape, the Fed tape and the USD tape...
Thinking about my overall Market/Banking exit strategy..... could be sooner than later.... Dilemma.... rotate profits in hard cash physical assets vs going physical 100%... Jury still out on that one. Current political landscape pending various elections here and there could trigger an action sooner than later.
Praying there won't be any civil war or WWIII or 1929/1979/2008 redux ....
The Apocalyptic clock and Shit Show Survey aren't painting a rosie picture on ALL fronts ....
Beside that all is well in the Rotten kingdom of Norway !
Be safe, Best of luck too ! |
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To: Rollocaster who wrote (60394) | 9/15/2021 2:58:26 PM | From: Wade | | | Hi Chu,
Thank you for sharing yours. Pt and Pd are caught at lower car production due to shortage of chips. We have never thought about that. I am out of all of Pt and Pd miners completely. Waiting for re-entry.
Glad to see good movement of KRRGF today. I think investors finally found out this junior producer has only PE of 5.4 and can grow fast. We shall see. |
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To: Wade who wrote (60393) | 9/18/2021 11:48:46 PM | From: Wade | | | China didn't print much money during the pandemic until now while US printed $trillions and went for more. What China did was to slowly burst bubbles and deleveraging the crises one by one under controlled fashion instead allowing them bursting all at once thanks to the ultra low interest rate in the US.
We all know now that Federal Reserve System is actually working with Treasury side-by-side and not an independent institution any longer. This is the situation becoming very interesting because they have becoming a political tool and integrated into the total war game with China.
The recent Evergrande collapse in China could be saved if the interest rate in the US stayed low as usual. However, if the Fed's calculation indicates that it will crash China without hurting us much they may decide to crank up the interest rate next week in the FOMC meeting. They can lower it in the later days any way. Of course, we will become unwillingly collateral damaged goods. However, if they found out by doing that US could hurt badly FOMC will stay on course of low interest rate. All of the stocks and miners will rally again. It is a war, man.
Why US is taking on China like we did with USSR? I think it is for the greater good of the national benefits. ha
I suggest you to watch movie "Tom Clancy’s Without Remorse". You can find it on Amazon prime. It is just a moving but so cruel.
What may come down is the Fed to raise the rate while the market crashed worldwide and the $3.5 trillion or even more, infrastructure bill will pass. We shall stay cool and find out bargains during crashes if there is any. Good luck. |
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