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   Non-TechThe Woodshed

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To: ggersh who wrote (60381)8/10/2021 10:16:18 AM
From: Pianoman1997
   of 60430
Yes true and some money going to Cryptos too!

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To: Pianoman1997 who wrote (60382)8/10/2021 10:23:03 AM
From: ggersh
   of 60430
I hope for crypto's to prevail over fiat.

It might take another enlightenment for that to happen

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To: ggersh who wrote (60383)8/11/2021 5:34:57 PM
From: ggersh
1 Recommendation   of 60430

"I write to you from a disgraced profession. Economic theory, as widely taught since the 1980s, failed miserably to understand the forces behind the financial crisis. Concepts including 'rational expectations,' 'market discipline,' and the 'efficient markets hypothesis' led economists to argue that speculation would stabilize prices, that sellers would act to protect their reputations, that caveat emptor could be relied on, and that widespread fraud therefore could not occur. Not all economists believed this – but most did. Control frauds always fail in the end. But the failure of the firm does not mean the fraud fails: the perpetrators often walk away rich. At some point, this requires subverting, suborning or defeating the law. This is where crime and politics intersect. At its heart, therefore, the financial crisis was a breakdown in the rule of law in America. In this situation, let me suggest, the country faces an existential threat. Either the legal system must do its work. Or the market system cannot be restored."

James K. Galbraith, May 16, 2010

"They [moneyed interests] are ruthlessly going forward to eliminate land, labour, entrepreneurial-managerial skills, and everything else the economists once told us were the chief elements of production. The only element of production they are concerned with is the one they can control: capital."

Carroll Quigley, The State of the Individual

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From: ggersh8/14/2021 11:12:51 AM
   of 60430

“They (economists) must set aside their contempt for other disciplines and their absurd claim to greater scientific legitimacy, despite the fact that they know almost nothing about anything.” Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century

“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.”

Laurence J. Peter

“Some student asked if he [Larry Summers] didn’t have essentially the same relationship with Bob Rubin. Wasn’t Summer’s opposition to capital controls just a sop to Wall Street banks, which wanted to recoup their risky investments regardless of how doing so affected the country in which they had invested?

'Summers just lost it,' said one audience member, a business school student. “He looked at the person and said, 'you don’t know what you’re talking about and how dare you ask this question of the president of Harvard?'”

Richard Bradley

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To: ggersh who wrote (60385)8/18/2021 5:49:29 AM
From: Real Man
   of 60430

What’s 300% Buffett ratio and 15% annual inflation?
We can’t have deflation

Translation of fedspeak: we can’t let stocks crash

We would be close to MOABM, or so I thot.

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To: Real Man who wrote (60386)9/7/2021 10:13:22 AM
From: ggersh
1 Recommendation   of 60430
The top is near!

Either we continue the crash up, or we start the crash down


Musings My Books Archives Books/Films

Is Anyone Willing to Call the Top of the Everything Bubble? September 6, 2021

Can extremes become too extreme to continue higher? We're about to find out.

Is anyone willing to call the top of the Everything bubble? The short answer is no. Anyone earning money managing other people's money cannot afford to be wrong, and so everyone in the herd prevaricates on timing. The herd has seen what happens to those who call the top and then twist in the wind as the market continues rocketing higher.

Money managers live in segments of three months. If you miss one quarter, the clock starts ticking. If the S&P 500 beats your fund's return a second time because you were bearish in a bubble, your doom is sealed.

When the bubble finally pops and everyone but a handful of secretive Bears is crushed, the rationalization will cover everyone's failure: "nobody could have seen this coming."

Actually, everyone can see it coming, but the tsunami of central bank liquidity has washed away any semblance of rationality. My friend and colleague Zeus Y. recently summarized the consequences of this decoupling of markets and reality:

"I used to be with the Bears until the uncoupling was complete when the Fed started guaranteeing non-investment grade junk bonds. At that point, any semblance of sanity, much less probity, much less integrity was gone. Rinse and repeat with digital dollars going into the tens and even hundreds of trillions of dollars.

For two decades we fiscal sanity-ists have been assuming SOME baseline reality. I see none in sight and still plenty of assets to plunder and pump and still resources to suck and suckers to shake down. The system is running hot and wild on its own algorithms, and actual people are lying back and simply lapping up the "passive" income created by delusion-made-reality.

With that much will and that much corruption, that much greed and that much lust, with a strong dose of fear and opportunism to flavor this toxic brew, I do not see the entity slouching away from Bethlehem anytime soon (yes, Keats reference). The falcon has long since not heard the falconer in its widening gyre, but we have virtual falcons now that will do whatever we think it is we want (which has been force fed back to us).

Until this mass delusion and psychosis breaks by whatever means-- financial crash, rebellion against all the BS and return to simple community, we are only going to see digital currency, stocks, and pretty much everything go up as tens of trillions of concocted dollars try to find some asset to ride.

This will (continue to) drive the stock market, gold, cybercurrency, land, everything to unsustainable and giddy heights. I no longer think a Bear market is even possible. Just soaring "valuations" based on funny money and an unpredictable crash at some point in the future WAY longer than it ever should be if we had a sane world."

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To: ggersh who wrote (60387)9/7/2021 10:55:14 AM
From: Real Man
1 Recommendation   of 60430
I will keep buying spoo until it goes back to 666 and lower -g- A worthwhile sacrifice for the country to ditch plutocracy. Gold and silver can’t take out their criminal manipulators until bonds do. So far spoo floats, gold dumps. Ssdd

Buy some tulips, or grow them

A crap picture can be worth a hundred grand when on ethereum blockchain -g- This too shall pass.

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To: Real Man who wrote (60388)9/11/2021 11:34:17 AM
From: ggersh
   of 60430

Q: Hi Andy, thanks for joining me. Is a silver squeeze really even possible given the massive size of the silver market? In layman's terms, how could it happen?

A: More silver is being consumed than is being mined each year. Last year, approximately 850 million ounces were mined globally, with a demand of over one billion ounces. The industrial demand for silver is surging in an increasingly digital world, with new applications every day in green energy and battery powered vehicles.

At the same time annual global mine supply is declining and industrial demand is increasing, a global renaissance in monetary demand is upon us. This is happening while a handful of large Wall Street bullion banks have manipulated the price of monetary metals for decades, allowing some of the biggest money in the world to accumulate massive amounts of physical gold and silver at subsidized prices.

The physical demand filters down from the top. Over 300 million ounces of silver were removed from the Comex market in 2020 by some of the most sophisticated and well healed investors in the world. Settlements on the Comex are usually mostly in dollars. The Comex was not set up to be a source of physical delivery. This is no small development. In years past, this amount would represent roughly a decade’s worth of silver deliveries. In addition, Comex deliveries in 2021 are now on pace to better the 2020’s delivery numbers. When all of this is added to record global retail physical demand in coins and bars - physical demand at some point and probably sooner rather than later, will completely overwhelm supply.

In geological terms, silver is found in a form called epithermal, meaning it is found very near the surface. This means that most of the big deposits were found years ago, even before the advent of enhanced imagery. In fact, only 30% of global mine supply comes from primary silver miners, while 70% comes as a byproduct of mining other metals such as copper and zinc.

In summary, the demand for physical silver is greater than the supply - the amount being mined each year. And it’s expanding. At the same time, silver is in the cross hairs of a new class of “deep pocket” investors, from hedge funds to home offices. And the “retail” demand is on the rise as well. As an example, our business at Miles Franklin is up between 300% - 400% and it is 95% silver. This new, large demand is, in part, being funded by savvy investors taking profits on stocks and Bitcoin.

Most commodities have one primary source of demand, like copper – which is solely and industrial metal, and gold, which is mostly a monetary metal. Silver is in demand by both industry and investors. At some point they will be in competition with each other. That point is not far off. So yes, I think a squeeze is not only possible but actually highly probable.

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From: Wade9/13/2021 3:26:28 PM
1 Recommendation   of 60430
Okay... No miner stock picks?

My largest position is now KL which has very low PE that should catch up with AEM and NEM sooner or later. WPM and GDXJ are my second and third largest positions, respectively. But, WPM seems a little slow to react at here.

Own two junior producers: KRRGF and ANXGF.

I own a share shares of UROY for Uranium heat...

Good luck to all.

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From: bull_dozer9/13/2021 7:22:53 PM
   of 60430
What to Expect From Gold and Silver Going Forward

While we believe a huge precious metals bull market lies in front of us, we must also be aware that challenges remain over the medium term. Since the beginning of 2021, the average gold stock is down about 10%; in comparison, the average energy stock is up over 60%. The question for precious metals investors is how long this period of price consolidation will last.

We believe the current consolidation period is not yet over. We have long argued the upcoming bull market will be driven by western investors, as it was back in the 1970s. In contrast, the bull market between 2000 and 2012 was driven by eastern buyers who believed gold was a cheap asset class that had to be accumulated and held.

Back in 2000, the US and Europe consumed approximately 700 tonnes of gold combined. By 2012, as the first leg of the gold bull market was ending, their consumption had fallen to 460 tonnes. Gold had gone from $250 per ounce to $1,900 per ounce while western consumption had fallen. In other words, there was no participation from western buyers even though gold prices advanced over seven-fold. Over the same period, India and China went from consuming 1,150 tonnes combined in 2000 to 2,400 tonnes by 2013. Clearly, the major source of buying during the last gold bull market came from the East with no net participation from the West.

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