| To: Pianoman1997 who wrote (291554) | 10/22/2021 9:29:58 AM | | From: Valuepro | | | | "And it's moving up based on wishful thinking and not really fundamentals IMHO."
O.k., thanks. I appreciate your sharing, but would you mind pointing out what comprises the "fundamentals" that lead to your opinion and over what holding term?
Thanks again,
VP in AZ |
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| To: WalterWhite who wrote (291558) | 10/22/2021 9:39:21 AM | | From: Valuepro | | | | Yes, I agree, the 5-year trend is important to follow in regards to short-term interest rates in general. I look at the 10-year in regards to long-term trends as that, if I'm not wrong, is where the Fed feels pressure in regards to how it responds to inflation.
But with your reminder I will now pay closer attention to both. Thank you. |
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| To: Valuepro who wrote (291561) | 10/22/2021 9:58:27 AM | | From: Pianoman1997 | | | | I'd say that in a properly working economy, when high inflation is present, rates should be moving up to slow down things and ensure a smooth continuous landing and maintain healthy GDP growth.
But current high inflation is not caused by an overheating economy but rather due to shortages, trade, manufacturing imbalances and of course so much Feds $$$ help thrown at markets (QE, Infras, Covid compensation, debt ($$$ deficit). We also have insane stock valuations due for a correction except commodities.
So reducing QE/increasing Feds rates will perhaps fight inflation but since we do not have an overheating economy, it will have a dramatic effect on the said fragile economy, making things worse maybe. Hope not. But options are limited for Governments and central banks. Doomed if you do, doomed if you don't.
I am no economist so pls take my opinion for a grain salt but this is how I see things. |
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| To: Rocket Red who wrote (291565) | 10/22/2021 10:41:26 AM | | From: ralfph | | | | Well done - hope you enjoy your profits.
I am not sure if I would sell half or all of it if I was holding - but there is no question that selling a chunk today would have been in the cards.
LEXX - am still playing with that one. |
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