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   Strategies & Market TrendsNatural Resource Stocks

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From: isopatch12/6/2019 3:10:58 PM
4 Recommendations   of 97413
<U.S. Exports More Oil than Imports for First Time in Half Century

December 6, 2019

Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, brings us news that (so far) the lamestream press refuses to share. In September the United States exported 89,000 barrels per day (b/d) more petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products) than it imported. That’s the first month this has happened since monthly records began in 1973! The first time in recorded history! But not a peep from the press or their Big Green overlords. This is ALL due to the miracle of shale drilling.>

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To: isopatch who wrote (96191)12/6/2019 3:41:18 PM
From: E_K_S
6 Recommendations   of 97413
Another reason why we do not need the 'Petrodollar. Need to cut ties w/ Saudi's and get rid of the petrodollar and move back to gold (or some US/natural resource) standard.

If/when all those China manufacturing jobs move back to the US (I expect current tariffs to just stay on), US economy will be running on all cylinders. It will feed on it's self too. More manufactures move back, create more jobs and is like putting gasoline on a fire.

Also, update manufacturing w/ AI and robotics will actually create some well paying jobs, not just assembly.

Could be very positive times if this is allowed to run w/ added support of Congress (how about a domestic infrastructure bill?). We need USMCA to be brought up for a vote (been sitting in the House for over a year).


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From: isopatch12/6/2019 8:59:26 PM
2 Recommendations   of 97413
Published climate papers in peer review journals continue to show serious declines in accuracy. Worse still are verifiable failures by the publishing journals to do a credible job of reviewing the factual & evidence in those papers!!

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To: isopatch who wrote (96193)12/7/2019 4:12:47 PM
From: Cyrus
1 Recommendation   of 97413
Great video Iso thank you for that! It also lines up with the history I have read.

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From: isopatch12/7/2019 11:37:26 PM
   of 97413
Even given the challenges of a GSM, and eventual debt depression? Don't let the fear and negativity of others, or all the political B.S., rob you of a positive attitude toward your life and future. If you're afraid? You're not prepared & self sufficient enough to have the deeply felt confidence essential to turn away and disregard the naysayer extreme claims.

Don't agree with everything in the video, but he's pretty close. That being a small number of major trends are so obvious you don't have to predict the future in order to prepare for it.


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From: isopatch12/9/2019 11:58:43 AM
2 Recommendations   of 97413
Nice move in gasser E&Ps, so far, today DESPITE 2nd consecutive day of sharp decline in Natural Gas. Always bullish when the equities lead the commodity higher. Has to be more than a one day bounce. Let's see if this pop has legs....

Here's my wag of Nat. Gas supply & demand.

Part 1: Demand

More very cold temps forecast for northern & central Plains & Midwest.

<Bundle up: Coldest air yet this season to plunge Midwest into deep freeze

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated dec. 9, 2019 10:06 AM>

"Very cold Arctic air will plunge southward into the northern and central Plains through Monday and into the Great Lakes and Midwest Monday and Tuesday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jack Boston said.

Boston expects some locations from the eastern Dakotas to Minnesota and northern Wisconsin to remain below zero degrees for a period of 24-48 hours from Monday night into Wednesday night.

To make matters worse, the combination of the frigid air, wind and other factors will result in AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures 10-30 degrees below zero across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday.

People spending any length of time outdoors will need to make sure they are properly dressed for such frigid conditions.

Part 2: Natural Gas is an excellent coincident cyclical economic indicator especially for the industrial economy, which over a month, reliable confirming news reports have tracked it slowing significantly and nearing zero growth.

Part 3: The massive ongoing global demand infrastructure buildout continues. This is a secular trend and the focus of LT mineral property, and mega cap/integrated energy stock investors.

Supply: Has been too high for several years keeping NG prices low. Although it's kept the equities in a multi-year bear market with the largest declines occurring even in the best quality E&Ps YTD 2019. The secular (multi-cycle) positive side of such low prices is they stimulate LT fuel switching from Coal and most alternative energy sources once we're given the full costs of those alternatives...))

Right now? The most reliable data sources I've watched for many years indicate drilling continues to decline and production is peaking with hi confidence it will begin a meaningful decline 1st qtr next year at the latest.

Finally, have talked repeatedly - here - about year end tax selling. The commodity isn't exempt from what is looking more and more like a year end portfolio blowout selling climax. Todays breakaway downside gap opening supports that conclusion.

Recent volume surge evidences increasing probability of a year end, commodity fund, blow out, selling climax.

Per many posts. No long energy or PM stock positions, for months. That patience has proven worthwhile.


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To: isopatch who wrote (96196)12/9/2019 12:16:47 PM
From: Cyrus
1 Recommendation   of 97413
RRC bounced hard off $4.00 here is hoping it holds! Nice follow through from Friday.

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To: Cyrus who wrote (96197)12/9/2019 12:19:42 PM
From: isopatch
   of 97413
Yes. Another positive is RRC rally isn't isolated. Other quality gasser names confirm sector attempt to put in, at least, a short term bottom

AR is a standout. Up 22%!! Hey Dino! Having fun?<g>.


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From: isopatch12/9/2019 12:39:08 PM
1 Recommendation   of 97413
Now up 24%. Market most definitely likes Antero mgt. decisions. Lean & mean is the only way to fly in an ongoing Secular Debt Deflation per years of posts by several regulars here.

Good day for the ancient decrepit one, too...)) Just notified my EQT class action award check is coming a month earlier than originally promised.


<Antero Resources unveils midstream fee reductions, asset sale program

Dec. 9, 2019 8:02 AM ET

by Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) says it has reached agreements expected to reduce its gathering, processing and transportation costs by ~$350M over the four years, and begins an asset sale program targeting $750M-$1B to be completed in 2020.

The agreements include a growth incentive fee program where Antero Midstream (NYSE: AM) will provide a reduction in low pressure gathering fees for volumes gathered during 2020-23, which aligns with AR's current 8%-10% compound annual net production growth plan in 2020-21.

The asset sale program is initiated with a $100M repurchase of AM shares from AR, saving more than $20M in total dividends in 2020 assuming the targeted $1.23/share dividend.

AM also expects to reduce its 2020 capital budget target by $75M-$100M to a range of $300M-$325M, and will target a distributable cash flow coverage ratio of ~1.1x in 2020 and 1.1x-1.3x in 2021 and 2022.>

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From: isopatch12/9/2019 3:07:42 PM
1 Recommendation   of 97413
Todays gasser price spikes, on heavy volume, were concentrated in a handful of E&Ps with high short interest. AKA a short covering rally.

Those with much lower short interest are printing much smaller price gains on average or light volume. Volume has to increase in more names for this ST rally to have legs. Can that happen? Sure. Let's see if it does...


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