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To: E_K_S who wrote (96184)12/5/2019 11:08:42 AM
From: isopatch
   of 96962
 
Thanks. Always appreciate price discovery information.

Iso

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From: isopatch12/5/2019 12:26:14 PM
1 Recommendation   of 96962
 
Ding, Ding, Ding?<g> Remember troops, price of the commodity doesn't always track equity prices in the sector.

Iso

<Natural Gas - Prices Start To Bottom Out

Dec. 3, 2019 5:15 PM ET

62 comments

(5,494 followers)

Summary

For the week ending 11/29, we have a draw of -10 Bcf. This compares to -63 Bcf last year and -41 Bcf for the 5-year average.

Natural gas prices at one point recovered more than 7% before falling as the ECMWF-EPS run was underway. The discrepancy between ECMWF-EPS and GFS-ENS is monstrous right now.

From what we are seeing right now, GFS-ENS is far too bullish.

As a result, we think GFS-ENS will need to revise its outlook lower, which could see renewed pressure on prices at least in the short term.

We will be keeping an eye on the weather reports to see when we will go long. Timing-wise, we think it's in about 9 to 10 days.

Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of HFI Research Natural Gas get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Get started today »

Welcome to the bottoming out edition of Natural Gas Daily!

Housekeeping item first.

For the week ending 11/29, we have a draw of -10 Bcf. This compares to -63 Bcf last year and -41 Bcf for the 5-year average.



Prices Start To Bottom Out Natural gas prices at one point recovered more than 7% before falling as the ECMWF-EPS run was underway. The discrepancy between ECMWF-EPS and GFS-ENS is monstrous right now.



Both models have not been exactly very reliable over the last few weeks making natural gas trading extremely volatile. ECMWF-EPS has done a much better job keeping a more measured tone, while GFS-ENS has been wildly bullish only to temper back expectations.





Source: HFIRweather.com

From what we are seeing right now, GFS-ENS is far too bullish. In fact, the polar vortex displacement is coming almost 15 days ahead of ECMWF-EPS with the long-range forecast showing this event to happen closer to the end of December versus mid-December for GFS-ENS.

As a result, we think GFS-ENS will need to revise its outlook lower, which could see renewed pressure on prices at least in the short term.

But this doesn't mask the fact that the real long setup is coming which is the bet that January could be much colder than normal. By our estimate, if January turns much colder than normal, especially during the new year, we could see prices shoot up to $3/MMBtu for January expiration.



We've modeled in the bullish scenario and how it changes the price, and you can see a clear divergence here.

Now, traders may also be contemplating going long the widow-maker spread, which is to go long March and short April in the case winter does turn bullish. You can see that we forecast the spread to widen to as much as 35 cents.

Nonetheless, this is still reliant heavily on the weather outlook, but for the bulls, a warmer-than-normal December may translate to a much more bullish January outlook.

We will be keeping an eye on the weather reports to see when we will go long. Timing-wise, we think it's in about 9 to 10 days.

For readers that have found our natural gas articles insightful, we think you should give HFI Research Natural Gas a try. We provide the following to subscribers:



Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.>

seekingalpha.com

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From: isopatch12/5/2019 8:36:17 PM
2 Recommendations   of 96962
 
Back to demand infrastructure news.

<Weymouth Win: Marcellus Gas Will Go North to the Canadian Maritimes!

Posted on December 4, 2019

by Tom Shepstone




The battle is all but over. The state has approved and FERC has finally issued the go-ahead to start construction on the Weymouth Compressor Station.

Double click on 2016 Informational Video below



When I wrote back in early July about the nasty reaction of Weymouth Compressor Station opponents to my innocuous Tweet about the project getting a go-ahead, it was obvious why it was approved.

Fractivists and NIMBYs relied totally on baseless assertions, rather than facts. They substituted filthy language for reasoned debate. They chose to make accusations rather than argue. Their entire position could be summed up as “ I’m right, you’re wrong and I hate you.” It was no wonder why they lost but they were in denial. That’s no longer a viable position, though, as FERC has just authorized construction. Our Marcellus gas will soon be headed north to New England and the Canadian Maritimes.

One only need read the recent headlines from the Patriot Ledger to get the picture. First there was this update indicating that, despite the promise from Weymouth Compressor Station opponents, that what we reported four months earlier meant little or nothing, the state was determined to approve the project:

November 12, 2019

Compressor station project gets final state approval

WEYMOUTH — The town lost a key battle in a years-long war against a proposed 7,700-horsepower natural gas compressor station Tuesday as state regulators gave the project the green light in the final step of the state approval process…

Next, there was this example of very slowly dawning reality:

November 14, 2019

Officials see dwindling chances for stopping compressor station

WEYMOUTH — Local officials and activists are assessing what legal and procedural tools they can use to try to stop construction of the proposed 7,700-horsepower natural gas compressor station in Weymouth days after it cleared a key regulatory hurdle this week…

compressor station in Weymouth days after it cleared a key regulatory hurdle this week…

A week later, the Commonwealth’s two chief demagogues, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Edward Markey, threw a bone to Weymouth Compressor Station opponents:

November 20, 2019

U.S. senators call for 11th-hour review of compressor station proposal

WEYMOUTH — Massachusetts’ two U.S. senators are pushing federal energy regulators to hold off on issuing their final approval for a 7,700-horsepower natural gas compressor station and reconsider whether the project is necessary.

A week later, FERC showed exactly how much influence the two senators actually have:

November 27, 2019

Compressor construction could begin Tuesday

WEYMOUTH — After years of legal fights, protests and political lobbying, construction on a controversial natural gas compressor station in Weymouth could begin as early as Tuesday.

The proposed 7,700-horsepower station has been met by vociferous protest from residents and lawmakers, but multinational energy transportation company Enbridge and its subsidiary Algonquin appear ready to start building after a last go-ahead from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. A company hired by Enbridge has told residents that it could start clean up work on the Fore River site on Tuesday, but Enbridge itself would not confirm Wednesday when work would start.

I can’t wait for the reaction of our fractivist friends to my Tweet about this one. Much sweeter, though, is the knowledge this is part of Enbridge’s Atlantic Bridge Project, which will deliver Marcellus and Utica Shale gas to New England and the Canadian Maritimes>

naturalgasnow.org

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To: isopatch who wrote (96188)12/6/2019 8:04:16 AM
From: Logain Ablar
2 Recommendations   of 96962
 
Iso:

The green line is Sempra's pipe and passes within a mile of my house (Glastonbury, CT). I believe it is 24 inch as they tried to add a 2nd pipeline in the access way (30 or 26 inch) a few years ago and there was quite a bit of resistance. There has been recent work in the area but I'm assuming they are increasing capacity without adding a new pipe.

With our government controlled by the environmental lobby expect higher energy prices to CT business. A law passed last year requires "renewable" energy so our electric company is going to have to acquire from new wind mill farms at some point.

One of the reasons CT residents with the ability relocate to SC, FL and TX.


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To: Logain Ablar who wrote (96189)12/6/2019 12:41:35 PM
From: isopatch
1 Recommendation   of 96962
 
Next Weeks Forecast from another promising website, I've been digging into. Let's see how accurate their forecast proves to be.....

<Brief Warmup Will Be Followed by More Widespread Cold in Central, Eastern U.S. Next Week

Brian Donegan

Published: December 6, 2019

Milder temperatures are forecast across the central United States this week, then the East by early next week, but the next round of cold air is just around the corner.

November was one of the 10 coldest on record for some cities in the Midwest and East, including Bangor, Maine; Binghamton, New York; and Cincinnati, Ohio, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center. The month was also punctuated by a pair of winter storms – Dorothy and Ezekiel, the latter of which continued into the first few days of December – resulting in the Lower 48 states' largest snow coverage to begin December in at least 16 years.

In fact, some cities had their most miserable start to winter through early November, and winter doesn't officially begin until Dec. 21 at 11:19 p.m. EST.

(MORE: Does a Cold November Mean a Cold Winter Ahead?)

But for the cold-fatigued central and eastern U.S., temporary relief from the shivering temperatures and snow is anticipated in the days ahead. On Thursday, the milder temperatures will be found in the Plains, Midwest and South, but a brief cooldown is expected Friday.

Then, widespread temperatures of 10 to 20 degrees above average are predicted throughout the Rockies and Plains on Saturday, the Plains and Midwest on Sunday and the Midwest, South and much of the East by Monday.

This means many cities in the northern tier could reach the 30s and 40s for highs, with 50s and 60s farther south and 70s in the Southern Plains and Deep South. Temperatures this warm might melt much of the Northeast snowpack by the middle of next week, but perhaps not as much in the Plains and Midwest.



Forecast Highs This Weekend
The warmup won't last, however.

Changes are on the way next week as the jet stream plunges southward over the central and eastern states and a cold front slides eastward through the Plains, Midwest and East.

This will allow the cold air bottled up in Canada to seep southward back into the U.S., beginning in the Northern Plains on Sunday, then gradually sliding eastward through the week.



This animation shows the progression of the colder air from Saturday through next Thursday.
Bitterly cold temperatures are predicted in parts of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest early to mid-next week. Highs may struggle to rise out of the single digits from parts of the Dakotas into portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

High temperatures in the teens may plunge as far south as the western Great Lakes, including Chicago and Milwaukee, next Wednesday, while highs in the 20s are possible into parts of the Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley.

New York City could fail to rise above freezing by next Thursday, and highs in the 40s could be widespread all the way into Arkansas, Tennessee and the mid-South.



Forecast Highs Next Week

Low temperatures will dip below zero in portions of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest early to mid-next week. This will likely be the coldest temperatures of the season here. It will feel even colder when the wind is factored in and wind chills up to 30 degrees below zero are possible in parts of the Northern Plains..

Cities and towns in the Red River Valley of the North, including those in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota, could bottom out in the mid-teens below zero next Wednesday morning.

Single-digit lows above zero are possible as far south as Chicagoland, with teens into the mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. Morning lows in the 20s are forecast in the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee during the middle of next week.



Forecast Morning Lows Next Week

There's a chance that moisture could overlap with next week's cold air, but it remains uncertain whether a significant storm will accompany the moisture to produce areas of snowfall. Check back to weather.com for updates.>

wunderground.com

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From: isopatch12/6/2019 3:10:58 PM
4 Recommendations   of 96962
 
<U.S. Exports More Oil than Imports for First Time in Half Century

December 6, 2019

Our favorite government agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, brings us news that (so far) the lamestream press refuses to share. In September the United States exported 89,000 barrels per day (b/d) more petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products) than it imported. That’s the first month this has happened since monthly records began in 1973! The first time in recorded history! But not a peep from the press or their Big Green overlords. This is ALL due to the miracle of shale drilling.>

marcellusdrilling.com

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To: isopatch who wrote (96191)12/6/2019 3:41:18 PM
From: E_K_S
6 Recommendations   of 96962
 
Another reason why we do not need the 'Petrodollar. Need to cut ties w/ Saudi's and get rid of the petrodollar and move back to gold (or some US/natural resource) standard.

If/when all those China manufacturing jobs move back to the US (I expect current tariffs to just stay on), US economy will be running on all cylinders. It will feed on it's self too. More manufactures move back, create more jobs and is like putting gasoline on a fire.

Also, update manufacturing w/ AI and robotics will actually create some well paying jobs, not just assembly.

Could be very positive times if this is allowed to run w/ added support of Congress (how about a domestic infrastructure bill?). We need USMCA to be brought up for a vote (been sitting in the House for over a year).

EKS

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From: isopatch12/6/2019 8:59:26 PM
2 Recommendations   of 96962
 
Published climate papers in peer review journals continue to show serious declines in accuracy. Worse still are verifiable failures by the publishing journals to do a credible job of reviewing the factual & evidence in those papers!!


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To: isopatch who wrote (96193)12/7/2019 4:12:47 PM
From: Cyrus
1 Recommendation   of 96962
 
Great video Iso thank you for that! It also lines up with the history I have read.

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From: isopatch12/7/2019 11:37:26 PM
   of 96962
 
Even given the challenges of a GSM, and eventual debt depression? Don't let the fear and negativity of others, or all the political B.S., rob you of a positive attitude toward your life and future. If you're afraid? You're not prepared & self sufficient enough to have the deeply felt confidence essential to turn away and disregard the naysayer extreme claims.

Don't agree with everything in the video, but he's pretty close. That being a small number of major trends are so obvious you don't have to predict the future in order to prepare for it.



.

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