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From: isopatch12/4/2019 10:03:59 PM
1 Recommendation   of 96979
 
Honest Big Picture Energy Perspectives.


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From: isopatch12/5/2019 12:29:48 AM
2 Recommendations   of 96979
 
All time record snow cover. Information provided from 3 different news sources:

<United States – Record-high snow cover across the Lower 48

December 4, 2019

by Robert

Snow now covers nearly one half – one half! – of the continental United States. That’s the most snow cover on December 2 since records began.



Snow Cover – 2 December 2019 – Image courtesy of NOAA “Snow covered the ground on nearly half of the real estate in the Lower 48 — 46.2 percent of land area — on Monday morning,’ writes Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang ” (This is) the largest area on Dec. 2 since snow cover records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began in 2003. Normally, a little more than a quarter of the nation has snow on the ground at this time of year.”

washingtonpost.com

wattsupwiththat.com

iceagenow.info

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To: isopatch who wrote (96179)12/5/2019 9:14:03 AM
From: Chu Berry
1 Recommendation   of 96979
 
A picture from my Balcony in Montréal this morning ! Almost looks like one of Jackson Pollock's dripping paintings from the fifties ...


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To: Chu Berry who wrote (96180)12/5/2019 9:56:58 AM
From: isopatch
1 Recommendation   of 96979
 
It does. Still no snow here other than a few flurries which quickly melt. Temps in the 50s, again later this week. Be happy to see cold and snow roar thru here and hit the hi population middle Atlantic states to get NG prices to 3 bucks...))

Unfortunately for the gas price, Lower 48 winter - so far - concentrated in the Rocky Mt. region and northern plains states. Prices won't do much until bone chilling cold comes to America's "megalopolis": The New York City to Washington D.C. corridor. And stays for awhile.

So far, not sign of that

Iso

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To: isopatch who wrote (96177)12/5/2019 10:31:36 AM
From: robert b furman
3 Recommendations   of 96979
 
Good Morning ISO,

While home shopping in 1981 (after Chevrolet moved me to Houston), I looked at homes in Tomball TX. Humble Oil Company had large gas wells in Tomball.

Part of the perks to drill in Tomball was free natural gas for rural locations.

I remember marveling at the outdoor pools being heated during the winter months. The steamy water would lift out of the pools all day.

Those homes were well above my pay range, but your story has brought back the memory.

P.S. I think you need to have a heated pool out in front of your greenhouse.

How relaxing to watch your seedlings sprout, as you sprint into the warm water. LOL

Bob

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From: isopatch12/5/2019 10:48:58 AM
2 Recommendations   of 96979
 
<The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas fell by 19 billion cubic feet for the week ended Nov. 29. Analysts expected a fall of 21 billion cubic feet, on average, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global Platts. Total stocks now stand at 3.591 trillion cubic feet, up 591 billion cubic feet from a year ago, but 9 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, the government said. January natural gas NGF20, +1.33% traded at $2.439 per million British thermal units, up 4 cents, or 1.7%, from Wednesday's settlement.>

marketwatch.com

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To: isopatch who wrote (96183)12/5/2019 11:04:04 AM
From: E_K_S
   of 96979
 
Not sure you look at the EIS data reports. I was surprised that Domestic oil production is now around 12.6mln barrels per Day (10/25/2019) vs 3.83 mln barrels per Day in (9/30/2005)

Notice production up over 1mln barrels/day a day from last year!



Not sure Opec decision tomorrow can impact oil prices as much w/ what US now produces on a daily basis.

EKS

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To: robert b furman who wrote (96182)12/5/2019 11:05:31 AM
From: isopatch
2 Recommendations   of 96979
 
<...think you need to have a heated pool out in front of your greenhouse.>

In the mid-80s we owned a nice custom cedar home on 4 acres. Very small, moderately rural area in southern Illinois. Sub division was all recently built custom homes on similar large lots. About 2/3 had in ground pools. Ours was kidney shaped pool. The boys 10 & 12, then, loved it and became good swimmers. Never used it as I can't swim. With the boys grown and Sue not interested in one? It's not on our list.

What was interesting and the reason for sharing this story? Our sons were very fortunate to begin learning, early in life, that false friends were easy to attract when you have something they want.

Iso

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To: E_K_S who wrote (96184)12/5/2019 11:08:42 AM
From: isopatch
   of 96979
 
Thanks. Always appreciate price discovery information.

Iso

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From: isopatch12/5/2019 12:26:14 PM
1 Recommendation   of 96979
 
Ding, Ding, Ding?<g> Remember troops, price of the commodity doesn't always track equity prices in the sector.

Iso

<Natural Gas - Prices Start To Bottom Out

Dec. 3, 2019 5:15 PM ET

62 comments

(5,494 followers)

Summary

For the week ending 11/29, we have a draw of -10 Bcf. This compares to -63 Bcf last year and -41 Bcf for the 5-year average.

Natural gas prices at one point recovered more than 7% before falling as the ECMWF-EPS run was underway. The discrepancy between ECMWF-EPS and GFS-ENS is monstrous right now.

From what we are seeing right now, GFS-ENS is far too bullish.

As a result, we think GFS-ENS will need to revise its outlook lower, which could see renewed pressure on prices at least in the short term.

We will be keeping an eye on the weather reports to see when we will go long. Timing-wise, we think it's in about 9 to 10 days.

Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of HFI Research Natural Gas get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Get started today »

Welcome to the bottoming out edition of Natural Gas Daily!

Housekeeping item first.

For the week ending 11/29, we have a draw of -10 Bcf. This compares to -63 Bcf last year and -41 Bcf for the 5-year average.



Prices Start To Bottom Out Natural gas prices at one point recovered more than 7% before falling as the ECMWF-EPS run was underway. The discrepancy between ECMWF-EPS and GFS-ENS is monstrous right now.



Both models have not been exactly very reliable over the last few weeks making natural gas trading extremely volatile. ECMWF-EPS has done a much better job keeping a more measured tone, while GFS-ENS has been wildly bullish only to temper back expectations.





Source: HFIRweather.com

From what we are seeing right now, GFS-ENS is far too bullish. In fact, the polar vortex displacement is coming almost 15 days ahead of ECMWF-EPS with the long-range forecast showing this event to happen closer to the end of December versus mid-December for GFS-ENS.

As a result, we think GFS-ENS will need to revise its outlook lower, which could see renewed pressure on prices at least in the short term.

But this doesn't mask the fact that the real long setup is coming which is the bet that January could be much colder than normal. By our estimate, if January turns much colder than normal, especially during the new year, we could see prices shoot up to $3/MMBtu for January expiration.



We've modeled in the bullish scenario and how it changes the price, and you can see a clear divergence here.

Now, traders may also be contemplating going long the widow-maker spread, which is to go long March and short April in the case winter does turn bullish. You can see that we forecast the spread to widen to as much as 35 cents.

Nonetheless, this is still reliant heavily on the weather outlook, but for the bulls, a warmer-than-normal December may translate to a much more bullish January outlook.

We will be keeping an eye on the weather reports to see when we will go long. Timing-wise, we think it's in about 9 to 10 days.

For readers that have found our natural gas articles insightful, we think you should give HFI Research Natural Gas a try. We provide the following to subscribers:



Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.>

seekingalpha.com

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