| From: skinowski | 12/11/2021 9:20:58 AM | | | | | | It’s OK to trade, but to manage savings, one must have a simple, safe long term strategy. This one - in an excellent post by Gary Antonacci - is a modification of the Sell in May and go Away strategy.
In this case, the investor isn’t completely out, but uses sector rotation. Some sectors do best in Nov - April, others - May- October.
This alone may form a fine core for a long term fact based investment strategy. It can be easily combined with other trend following rules, including Antonacci’s Dual Momentum.
The numbers in tables (later part of the post) show outperformance of a particular sector over (under) SP500.
Make sure you own Materials, Industials and Discretionary in Nov - April
AND Staples, Healthcare, Utilities in May - October
dualmomentum.net |
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| From: skinowski | 12/14/2021 10:17:57 AM | | | | | | Could it be that the old fashioned DOW may lead the markets this time? It made a recovery from correction lows which looks very much like an impulse (see wave 2 ending on Dec 3, at about 34,250). After completing W3 and W5, it declined in what looks like an ABC. It’s trying to rally this morning. If it can move above 35,700 (locking in the recent pullback as a three-waver)…. who knows, maybe that would be a very early heads up for further positive action. At any rate, worth watching.
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| To: skinowski who wrote (39064) | 12/16/2021 3:31:38 AM | | From: Perspective | | | | Wow, Ski, you're still around here? :-)
I was just thinking about this ol' place. I know it's just funnymentals, but I think people who fail to understand the impact of inflationary shocks on financial markets do so at their peril.
As Hussman points out, every security must at every moment be held by someone, until that security is retired. I just wouldn't want to be the someone holding a bunch of said securities in the event this inflationary episode turns out to be more than transitory.
The 70s got started with an unprecedented shock from the energy sector. The 20s could be driven by an unprecedented shock of its own: the 1-2 punch of labor market disruptions coupled with a flood of government spending.
Sorry to post clearly non-wiggle stuff here. It just looked like the place to find you, Ski!
Are any of the old characters still floating around? I'd love to get some long-term E-wave reads on things like crypto now that they're becoming "mainstream." At least twice a week now, I hear young guys at the gym bragging about their most recent crypto win. Perhaps it's the democratization of finance.
Or perhaps it's just human nature amid yet another speculative bubble...
Cheers,
Robert |
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| To: skinowski who wrote (39064) | 12/16/2021 3:38:43 AM | | From: Perspective | | | | This is what got me to thinking about crypto bubbles:
Fed’s Powell says he doesn’t see cryptocurrencies as ‘financial stability concern’ Published: Dec. 15, 2021 at 3:56 p.m. ET
marketwatch.com
Classic contrarian indicator... |
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| To: Perspective who wrote (39065) | 12/16/2021 8:28:47 AM | | From: skinowski | | | | Bobcor! So nice to hear from you. Sounds like you’re doing well.
I finally retired a couple of years ago, my wife and I live in South Flo, the land of the free… and from time to time we go to NY to visit our gray bearded sons and their families. We travel - but after the last trip to Europe I don’t want to go anymore - not until they stop requiring masks that do not work, and tests.
On SI - JOAT posts here, but not recently. Ajtj is here. I was in contact with AA - he’s not interested in markets, believe it or not… but generally seems happy. Shack is fairly active on Twitter, under the same name.
Inflation… it’s arriving, but under the cover of supply bottlenecks and other potentially transient issues. But, it’s here. They are printing too much money.
About markets with regard to inflation - I do believe that at least part of one’s savings should be kept invested in equities. Ultimately, it’s probably safer to keep them invested in the US production capacity than in cash. At any rate… any simple trend following scheme will show what’s the preferable positioning at any given time. The danger is something that happened in the 70’s - markets kept ranging until the eventual breakout in 1982, I think… while the dollar lost ~70% of its purchasing power. It all came back - but it took many, many years until those investors got back their money - in inflation adjusted terms, plus a return equal to the long bond interest.
So, it wasn’t the worst, but it wasn’t great. Short term bonds and CDs did a lot better. Also, imo the trend system needs to be slow and broad. Trying to fine tune every squiggle would be impossible.
Cryptos and NFTs are - to a large extent - imo, the byproduct of excess liquidity. Especially NFTs. I don’t understand them - but I think any relatively serious bear market, as liquidity dries up, will badly damage their value.
I’ll link a video with an excellent talk by Stan Druckenmiller. I thought it was quite excellent. He has 1% of his worth in cryptos… thinks they’re here to stay, and will remain important - but will never become money. I think deep down he doesn’t like them - says, that the real winners among cryptos may not have been invented yet.
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| From: skinowski | 12/18/2021 8:22:18 AM | | | | | | I’m not sure if this is a Triangle (and if it is, it’s clearly not a textbook case). But — the first move down is a three-waver. It was followed by a range. If from here it rallies to new highs, maybe it was a triangle. If it continues down… perhaps, it evolves into a Flat. What matters is that it has the makings of a correction. So, more likely than not, the larger Bull move is not over yet.
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