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   Strategies & Market TrendsCFZ E-Wiggle Workspace


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From: skinowski12/5/2021 2:20:14 PM
2 Recommendations   of 39433
 
Historically, large specs are a decent contrary indicator.

And this

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From: skinowski12/7/2021 1:13:14 PM
3 Recommendations   of 39433
 
A quick view on a 30 min chart. The top, I think, is wave 3 or C. If it goes down from here, the rally was probably corrective. If it consolidates and completes an impulse off the correction lows - well, quite possibly, the correction may be over.


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From: skinowski12/7/2021 1:43:12 PM
1 Recommendation   of 39433
 
Just the facts, ma’am


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From: skinowski12/8/2021 2:54:40 PM
2 Recommendations   of 39433
 
Useless, but a pretty pic


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From: skinowski12/10/2021 9:45:10 AM
1 Recommendation   of 39433
 
Follow the trend!!

We’re trying, we’re trying…


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From: skinowski12/11/2021 9:20:58 AM
2 Recommendations   of 39433
 
It’s OK to trade, but to manage savings, one must have a simple, safe long term strategy. This one - in an excellent post by Gary Antonacci - is a modification of the Sell in May and go Away strategy.

In this case, the investor isn’t completely out, but uses sector rotation. Some sectors do best in Nov - April, others - May- October.

This alone may form a fine core for a long term fact based investment strategy. It can be easily combined with other trend following rules, including Antonacci’s Dual Momentum.

The numbers in tables (later part of the post) show outperformance of a particular sector over (under) SP500.

Make sure you own Materials, Industials and Discretionary in Nov - April

AND Staples, Healthcare, Utilities in May - October

dualmomentum.net

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From: skinowski12/13/2021 3:52:09 PM
1 Recommendation   of 39433
 
Are we going to see 2 full months of this? Lol


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From: skinowski12/14/2021 10:17:57 AM
1 Recommendation   of 39433
 
Could it be that the old fashioned DOW may lead the markets this time? It made a recovery from correction lows which looks very much like an impulse (see wave 2 ending on Dec 3, at about 34,250). After completing W3 and W5, it declined in what looks like an ABC. It’s trying to rally this morning. If it can move above 35,700 (locking in the recent pullback as a three-waver)…. who knows, maybe that would be a very early heads up for further positive action. At any rate, worth watching.


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To: skinowski who wrote (39064)12/16/2021 3:31:38 AM
From: Perspective
1 Recommendation   of 39433
 
Wow, Ski, you're still around here? :-)
I was just thinking about this ol' place. I know it's just funnymentals, but I think people who fail to understand the impact of inflationary shocks on financial markets do so at their peril.

As Hussman points out, every security must at every moment be held by someone, until that security is retired. I just wouldn't want to be the someone holding a bunch of said securities in the event this inflationary episode turns out to be more than transitory.

The 70s got started with an unprecedented shock from the energy sector. The 20s could be driven by an unprecedented shock of its own: the 1-2 punch of labor market disruptions coupled with a flood of government spending.

Sorry to post clearly non-wiggle stuff here. It just looked like the place to find you, Ski!

Are any of the old characters still floating around? I'd love to get some long-term E-wave reads on things like crypto now that they're becoming "mainstream." At least twice a week now, I hear young guys at the gym bragging about their most recent crypto win. Perhaps it's the democratization of finance.

Or perhaps it's just human nature amid yet another speculative bubble...

Cheers,
Robert

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To: skinowski who wrote (39064)12/16/2021 3:38:43 AM
From: Perspective
   of 39433
 
This is what got me to thinking about crypto bubbles:

Fed’s Powell says he doesn’t see cryptocurrencies as ‘financial stability concern’ Published: Dec. 15, 2021 at 3:56 p.m. ET

marketwatch.com

Classic contrarian indicator...

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