| From: skinowski | 12/4/2021 4:18:01 PM | | | | | | Just like call buying squeezes markets up — put buying pushes it down, since dealers hedge their positions. They buy futures to hedge calls - and sell futures to hedge their outstanding puts. Here’s a nice description (see thread). There is a record number of outstanding puts out there (which are subject to dynamic hedging). He thinks that by Dec 17 - at expiration - dealers may find themselves with huge excess of short futures (since expired puts no longer need hedging).
A grain of salt is advised. I’d expect that their algos may start unhedging the positions due to expire before Dec 17.
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| To: skinowski who wrote (39052) | 12/4/2021 6:59:51 PM | | From: kckip | | | | | Not sure there is a way for little "3" to be any kind of impulsive wave (or the larger move down for that matter).....unless it's subdividing and not finished yet......way too much overlap. |
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| To: kckip who wrote (39053) | 12/4/2021 9:44:42 PM | | From: skinowski | | | | Yes, at this time NDX shows a three-waver down. If it traces out w4 and w5 down, it becomes an impulse - which would “invite” a bounce (2 or B). Next, we would expect a decline to new lows (C or 3).
Hence, the hope for the bulls is that the correction is over, or close to that - and the bull market resumes.
So, in the end, the forthcoming bounce will show us an indication of what’s to come. |
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| To: J_K who wrote (39049) | 12/4/2021 9:54:47 PM | | From: skinowski | | | | Interesting… so, AMD on the monthly chart just about completed 3rd waves of several degrees - and is due to trace out a corresponding series of 4th and 5th waves… until it completes the red 3. That should keep it in a predominantly bullish mode for quite some time.
The big red 4 will take time. The red 2 took many years.
Thanks, JK! |
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| From: skinowski | 12/7/2021 1:13:14 PM | | | | | | A quick view on a 30 min chart. The top, I think, is wave 3 or C. If it goes down from here, the rally was probably corrective. If it consolidates and completes an impulse off the correction lows - well, quite possibly, the correction may be over.
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