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   Strategies & Market TrendsCFZ E-Wiggle Workspace


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From: skinowski12/4/2021 12:29:22 PM
1 Recommendation   of 39380
 
Don’t know if anyone here trades currencies, but it’s interesting. Could be that March, when the USD is strong, is a good month to travel to other countries. Or, to invest in foreign equities (and to unload them around the turn of the year)

Of course, unless this current bear phase ends soon, this year things may prove different. There may be an unusually high demand for dollars.


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From: skinowski12/4/2021 4:18:01 PM
2 Recommendations   of 39380
 
Just like call buying squeezes markets up — put buying pushes it down, since dealers hedge their positions. They buy futures to hedge calls - and sell futures to hedge their outstanding puts. Here’s a nice description (see thread). There is a record number of outstanding puts out there (which are subject to dynamic hedging). He thinks that by Dec 17 - at expiration - dealers may find themselves with huge excess of short futures (since expired puts no longer need hedging).

A grain of salt is advised. I’d expect that their algos may start unhedging the positions due to expire before Dec 17.


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From: skinowski12/4/2021 4:48:36 PM
2 Recommendations   of 39380
 
NQ - the bounce will tell the story


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To: skinowski who wrote (39052)12/4/2021 6:59:51 PM
From: kckip
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Not sure there is a way for little "3" to be any kind of impulsive wave (or the larger move down for that matter).....unless it's subdividing and not finished yet......way too much overlap.

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To: kckip who wrote (39053)12/4/2021 9:44:42 PM
From: skinowski
1 Recommendation   of 39380
 
Yes, at this time NDX shows a three-waver down. If it traces out w4 and w5 down, it becomes an impulse - which would “invite” a bounce (2 or B). Next, we would expect a decline to new lows (C or 3).

Hence, the hope for the bulls is that the correction is over, or close to that - and the bull market resumes.

So, in the end, the forthcoming bounce will show us an indication of what’s to come.

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To: J_K who wrote (39049)12/4/2021 9:54:47 PM
From: skinowski
   of 39380
 
Interesting… so, AMD on the monthly chart just about completed 3rd waves of several degrees - and is due to trace out a corresponding series of 4th and 5th waves… until it completes the red 3. That should keep it in a predominantly bullish mode for quite some time.

The big red 4 will take time. The red 2 took many years.
Thanks, JK!

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From: skinowski12/4/2021 10:41:00 PM
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From: skinowski12/5/2021 2:20:14 PM
2 Recommendations   of 39380
 
Historically, large specs are a decent contrary indicator.

And this

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From: skinowski12/7/2021 1:13:14 PM
3 Recommendations   of 39380
 
A quick view on a 30 min chart. The top, I think, is wave 3 or C. If it goes down from here, the rally was probably corrective. If it consolidates and completes an impulse off the correction lows - well, quite possibly, the correction may be over.


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From: skinowski12/7/2021 1:43:12 PM
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Just the facts, ma’am


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