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To: skinowski who wrote (31436)11/4/2018 3:27:10 PM
From: scoot1212
   of 39383
 
Excellent points, Ski. Also, your description of this board is probably why I like it so much. ;)

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To: skinowski who wrote (31432)11/4/2018 3:45:40 PM
From: techtrader73
   of 39383
 
I dont trade on fundamentals...but binary events and interest rates do have a market impact..most fundamentals are noise and anything looks good in a bull market,,, you can throw a dart at the Wallstreet journal and with proper money management make good money...this market changed charater at the jan highs the major indexes hid what was going on underneath.....the market always responds to that kind of divergence

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To: scoot1212 who wrote (31434)11/4/2018 4:04:13 PM
From: rogermci®
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Good to know you're very experienced and it shows in your comments. One last question, since you're thinking we need single digit PE's before another secular bull market, would it be safe to say that would include breaking SP 1810 which I count as the start of this secular bull?

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To: rogermci® who wrote (31439)11/4/2018 4:18:49 PM
From: skinowski
   of 39383
 
R, I have doubts about this as well. In 2008-09 PEs remained very high - because the earnings collapsed even worse than prices. So, I can't see how low PE's can possibly be an absolute precondition for major lows.

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To: rogermci® who wrote (31439)11/4/2018 4:38:39 PM
From: scoot1212
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Roger,1550 and 1810 are my areas of interest, which I believe hold the highest probability, eventually. Also, the current upward correction will help define where we are. Since the markets can remain resilient, longer than you can remain solvent, the continuation of upward gaps followed by short-covering could take this up substantially, as they often do in parabolic runs. For this to occur, I would think long rates would need to drop. It's a possibility, but not highly probable in my view, currently. Also, concerning PE's, the ultimate target for price of the market and the target for earnings are a subjective wildcard. There are all kinds of variations that could lead to an 8 PE, for example. jmho

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To: techtrader73 who wrote (31424)11/4/2018 4:47:10 PM
From: robert b furman
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Hi TT73,

I'll sell off some stocks that I think will be suspect to a dividend reduction or suspension.

I have some dividend payers I'll keep and take that revenue stream and average down into the discount.

I do not think we've seen the final top as many of the small caps and mid caps have not participated at all like the FANG stocks have.

A recognition wave ,which is the largest part of a bull includes even the tertiary small caps.

Huge breadth and we've not yet seen that IMO.

I'm seeing correction, not a final blow off top as in complete distribution.

Bob

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To: scoot1212 who wrote (31427)11/4/2018 4:51:11 PM
From: robert b furman
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Hi scoot,

I'm right on the same page you are.

We are in a very good "business first", "reawakening".

That being said, the initial moves, tax cuts and free and fair trade must be accomplished soon enough so that when 2020 comes - the majority will say - give him more time - he deserves it.

If that happens Trump is the type of leader who will make the strong and needed changes to our entitlement systems that will give them future solvency.

Bob

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To: POKERSAM who wrote (31403)11/4/2018 7:35:03 PM
From: catou1
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Pokersam, sorry, I don't see A-B-C up. This pull back from top is exactly the same lenght that the one in february so this could be D of an ending diagonal. If it breaks below 2604, then I'll look for another count.
Always trade what you see :)

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To: catou1 who wrote (31444)11/4/2018 10:38:39 PM
From: POKERSAM
   of 39383
 
Yeah, it is C of (2) ending at 2756.
2604 will fall Tues. or Weds.

Good Luck

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To: robert b furman who wrote (31442)11/4/2018 11:04:18 PM
From: POKERSAM
   of 39383
 
Bob, so you are still looking for a recognition wave three up. One should begin after a correction down to at least 1810 in Super Cycle (II). That recognition wave will be Super Cycle (III). My target for (III) is 5490.
We could hit SC (II) end of 2019, early 2020. (III) could take 14 years or more.

I know you do not believe this scenario. So, I am glad that you are taking some defensive measures anyway.

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