| To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (13) | 1/8/2003 8:34:46 PM | | From: Ed Ajootian | | | | Natural gas storage levels have gone from 400 bcf above 5-year averages to about 100 bcf less than 5-year averages since mid-year ’02.
The swing in storage levels has been even more dramatic compared to last year – storage has swung from a 700-800 bcf overhang to a 600
bcf shortfall vs. year-ago levels (but we need to remember that a fall in gas prices from $10 to less than $2 in 2001 led to storage
performance that was quite unusual during 2001).
Natural gas storage withdrawal rates over the past month, after adjusting for the weather, have averaged 5 bcfpd more than historic
averages. This is in marked contrast to the experience over the April-November period in 2002 when “weather-normalized” withdrawal rates
were roughly equal to 5-year historic averages. We believe that there are 2 possible explanations:
(a) our model assumptions understate heating demand, or
(b) the market has tightened over the past month as a result of falling supply or increased gas usage (e.g. as a result of increased
economic activity).
We are betting that we have underestimated heating demand by a fair amount but we don’t believe that increased heating demand is the
whole story. Production continues to slide along with imports from Canada. The only bright spot on the supply side seems to be rising
imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
If we extrapolate recent storage trends we would end March with about 700 bcf in storage (assuming normal weather over the remainder of
winter). While this is at the low end of the 738-1,403 bcf 5-year historic range it is not a catastrophe for the gas markets. However, the 400
bcf implied shortfall versus 5-year averages would set us up for strong prices this summer.
*******************************************************
From today's Lehman Bros. report. Music to my ears! |
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| To: jmhollen who wrote (11) | 1/8/2003 11:28:55 PM | | From: sam_n_cctx | | | | jmh
i went back and forth between ur message and ed's response and a chart from stockcharts.com
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Lh14,3!La5,17,9]&pref=G
wow... that is an impressive response to the news...
however, when i went to yahoo, to "see the board" i noticed that yahoo did not have a message board for urmp.ob, but there was a press release dated for today.
can i ask what "board" had the news a bit sooner.
btw, i am long pey.to as well as one of ed's picks.. epl
i am gona admit.. that i was late coming to the party, and am under by about 5% due to this minor correction (i hope)
sam |
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| To: Arktic who wrote (17) | 1/9/2003 6:52:45 AM | | From: Ed Ajootian | | | | Hello Paul, Its been awhile, how are you? Will definitely check out FXEN. Always figured they would find a way to grab the brass ring over there, as long as they didn't run outta cash first.
BTW, all this talk about gas pipelines in Alaska has me thinking about that project you had been trying to put together several years ago. How did that all work out? If it didn't work is there any way to resurrect it? Given what's going on it seems like just a matter of time before they put in a pipeline. |
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| To: jmhollen who wrote (11) | 1/9/2003 12:49:52 PM | | From: sam_n_cctx | | | | john,
i was referering to the line in ur message from jan 6, message "URMP news today"
the news u referred to.. was available to u.. two days before it was posted as a press release on yahoo... that lead time of two days... has proven to be worth a 75% rise in the stock.
i just wanted to say thanks...
for pointing out better way to get news about this company
sam |
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| To: sam_n_cctx who wrote (19) | 1/9/2003 1:39:30 PM | | From: jmhollen | | | | Sorry about the delay in posting the News, I usually do iHub first, then here. I must have got distracted.
John :-)
. |
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| To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (14) | 1/9/2003 11:20:42 PM | | From: sam_n_cctx | | | | Hi Ed
i have kept the faith,, i have not sold epl, it has been a very frustrating 12 trading days.
the last two days, and the candlesticks are implying great days ahead.
but it is not just the epl candlesticks, also the $xng and $osx candlesticks... looks like the tide is rising..
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[db][pb8!b30!f][vc60][iut!Lh14,3!La5,17,9]&pref=G
sam |
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| To: sam_n_cctx who wrote (21) | 1/12/2003 11:52:36 PM | | From: Ed Ajootian | | | | Sam, Glad to hear you are still onboard here. The last release was good news/bad news but the key point was that they met analysts' projections for 1Q '03 production. For example, Jefferies had them pegged for 20,482 bopd for 1Q and in their PR, EPL is projecting for 1Q production to be in a range of 20,000 to 20,500 bopd. Given the other production scheduled to come on in 2Q and later, together with likely new production from subsequent exploration successes, it would seem that the analysts will be compelled to increase their production estimates for the rest of the year. For example, Jefferies had projected 2Q, 3Q and 4Q production of 20,974, 20,067 and 19,886 boed respectively. Just based on wells already completed they should do much better than the projected 3Q #.
Right now, if you fully load up the diluted shares outstanding by the warrants and convertible preferreds that are in the money, the stock is still trading at about a 3 multiple of cash flow (assuming $4 gas for '03), which is extremely low considering the 3 million $11 warrants are just barely in the money at the current quote.
I believe the analysts will start announcing their opinion upgrades this week, with some new initiations of coverage to come after they announce year-end reserve numbers on 2/6. Hopefully the preferred shareholders will take this opportunity to blow out a lot more of their stock so that we can reduce the amount of the preferred dividends that we will have to pay out from here on. |
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