| To: John X who wrote (6741) | 1/27/2006 4:33:41 PM | | From: Lizzie Tudor | | | | Kessler is like Ben Schacter used to be. It is apparent Kessler downgrades vocally whenever *anything* happens wrt GOOG. He doesn't think about it, just issues an emotional downgrade. For example last week when he issued the sell he stated it was troubling that GOOG was resisting the DOJ. Well, that was the wrong stance and one nobody else took.
There are 2 sells on GOOG, Kessler is one, and at the same time GOOG is not in the S&P when it is the most dynamic American company today. GOOG should have been in the S&P a year ago, imho.
Now, today Kessler makes remarks that MSFT "adcenter" spells trouble for GOOG. Well, here's what I think,
- we'll know on Tuesday but one of 2 things happened this quarter, either internet ad growth is slowing across the board or GOOG just annihilated MSN and YHOO. I keep up with this business and I can certainly say this is NO EASY CALL. But #2 is a distinct possibility, and if so, MSN adcenter is no risk to anybody. There is a window when competition matters but after it closes, things become much tougher. If GOOG delivers the numbers on Tues then it just became orders of magnitude harder for Adcenter.
- AOL got a sneak peak of "AdCenter" and said no thanks.
So, what is Kesslers basis for being concerned about this competition? If he is the only one who thinks its an issue, and I believe that to be the case (along with the guy from Guzman)- then I call him overemotional. JMO. |
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| To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (6745) | 1/27/2006 4:57:12 PM | | From: KeepItSimple | | | | Lizzie, they make basically 100% of their revenue by selling tiny little 3 line text advertisements on webpages. it's like Don Lapre in the 1990s infomercials late at night telling everyone how to get rich putting tiny little classified ads in hundreds of newspapers nationwide.
If that's your idea of the most dynamic company this country can create, then either a) we are fucked or b) you are delusional.
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when it is the most dynamic American company today |
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| To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (6732) | 1/27/2006 5:04:43 PM | | From: Sr K | | | | **OT - SHLD
Why is there no SHLD board on SI? Because people make too much money in it and there's not a lot to discuss or evaluate. It's location, location, location, real estate, real estate, real estate, and cash flow, cash flow, cash flow.
Buy under $117, or reevaluate if it holds above $125.
There must be others who see the difference between a stock and an operating business. It's not a "silicon" stock. Or, people who know keep it to themselves.
But Sears Holdings and Apple are the only large stocks I know of that were up over 200% in 2004 and 100% in 2005:
Sears Holdings
2004 313%
2005 168%
Apple Computer
2004 201%
2005 123%
[past performance is no guarantee of future results]
SHLD bought back $500 million of stock at a little over $118 starting in September or so last year, and announced another buyback of $500 million when it was trading about $115 that is not reflected in the 10-Q shares outstanding as of 10/29/05 which is what the data services use. There are about 157 million shares now. Lampert controls about 42%.
After the quarter ended, Sears Canada sold its credit card business for $1.9 billion 11/15 to JPM, and declared a dividend of the $1.7 billion after-tax proceeds, and Sears Holdings used its after tax share to tender for the 46% of Sears Canada it didn't own.
The stock seems bound by $125 and did so again today. |
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| To: Green Receipt who wrote (6726) | 1/27/2006 5:22:02 PM | | From: sandeep | | | | | Google does - it has class A/B style shares. The founders shares are worth 10 votes. Impossible to buy them out unless founders want to be sell. On the other hand, they could buy out MSFT - hostile bid of course. I wonder if someone offers 31-32$/share of MSFT, how many shareholders can resist. All google has to do is issue more shares, I bet this deal could be made to work financially for google. Then clean house! |
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| To: Jill who wrote (6744) | 1/27/2006 6:19:45 PM | | From: Trader J | | | | Absolutely I think they have lost the battles up to this point.... but this is a dynamic market still in its infancy. THe greater war goes much farther than search. But GOOG and YHOO could easily team up to put the finger in the dike so to speak and create a significant competitor .... a good shot across the bow so to speak.
The bigger issue is what is GOOG going for next and can MSFT, YHOO or whoever head them off at the pass and create some major disruption.
tJ |
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| To: KeepItSimple who wrote (6746) | 1/27/2006 6:22:23 PM | | From: Trader J | | | | The best sustainable business models can be drawn on a napkin. Ebay merely brings buyers and sellers together. Google does the same but through a different medium and has blown the doors off of legacy advertising. This is the new medium, whether you choose to believe it or not.
But the real power of GOOG isn't even the ad revenue or model, that is the means to an end. The real power is their brand and brand leverage into new vertical markets and new paradigms. It is where they go with their name and implementations next that will dictate whether they are Exodus Communications or Microsoft. |
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| To: Trader J who wrote (6751) | 1/27/2006 7:07:05 PM | | From: KeepItSimple | | | | Anyone who utters that phrase is 100% confirmed as a complete idiot. Hey- here's a hint- the dot.com madness ended 5 years ago.
Go sell crazy somewhere else, we're all stocked up here already.
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and new paradigms |
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| To: KeepItSimple who wrote (6752) | 1/27/2006 9:17:35 PM | | From: Trader J | | | | The .com madness had very little to do with business and everything to do with madness. Yet I was still able to profit very well. But my trading work for 16 years has been on identifying sustainable business models and finding them early in their growth cycle.
Show me your certification of which you speak and I will gladly sign it. I would much rather be "certified" and correct than not and not.
Seems like you were burned badly during the .com crash and your subjectivity probably spelled your end there as well as it is here.
Remember, in a subjective mind, no objectivity is possible.
And this quote, my favorite just about applies to you directly:
"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds". Google it.
:o)
tJ |
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