SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

   Strategies & Market TrendsSpeculating in Takeover Targets


Previous 10 Next 10 
To: E_K_S who wrote (5691)12/4/2019 10:18:35 AM
From: Robert O
1 Recommendation   of 6102
 
It's informative to scan the entire M&A landscape for data points. This is a bit of an outlier that the pump up in share price since 'strategic alteratives' being looked at was first mentioned was overdone. The final price - if this is the final price - can sometimes not live up to expectations as here stock takes a 10% dump on deal 'done' news.

I would suggest that the larger the liquidity and market cap (often those two go together anyway) the more likely news has basically leaked out about true anticipated price within a tight range. If not on the dot. But for lesser knowns as here the guess was too high- or on a more cynical note those in know let it float up and dumped on way up to the top or shorted - either way chasers got burnt. Recall the Fitbit deal chasers after initial news leaked were rewarded by about 10% though on final deal price.

Dec 4 (Reuters) - Education software firm Instructure Inc (INST) said on Wednesday it would be bought by private equity investment firm Thoma Bravo in an all-cash deal for about $2 billion, giving into pressure from one of its shareholders pushing for a sale.

Stockholders of the company will receive $47.60 in cash per share, a discount of about 10% to Instructure's closing price of $52.96 on Tuesday.

Shares of the company were down about 10% at $47.85 in premarket trading.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: Robert O who wrote (5692)12/4/2019 11:03:45 AM
From: E_K_S
   of 6102
 
I noticed that. When I looked at their market cap and see they were still burning cash, that price was still good (even though it was a Buy Under).

Been looking at many of these 'Cloud' computing stocks and many/all demand huge price premiums. It's still amazing how a PE firm can pay that much for a company still w/ no earnings.

I see 2020 earnings estimate is still a loss w/ consensus showing a loss of $ 1.52/share.

It's a great concept 'cloud' based online education, especially w/ all the student debt, but not so sure INST has a durable 'moat' in their product/service.

Perhaps it an indication that many of the PE companies have tons of cash ready to deploy and it's more of cash looking for an investment.

Time will tell if this pans out.

EKS

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read


To: Fuzzy who wrote (5690)12/4/2019 1:36:23 PM
From: richardred
1 Recommendation   of 6102
 
RE-CLF -Nice rebound from yesterday on the initial merger news. BTW CLF is a Scion Capital/ Mike Burry stock pick. I've noticed TMST- TIMKENSTEEL CORPORATION is moving today to. IMO if this deal works out. I think it's possible a friendly deal of TMST could work out down the road?

P.S.
Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Slumped on the AK Steel News. Investors Just Might Be Wrong. -- Barrons.com
BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
— 8:23 AM ET 12/04/2019


7 Stocks Michael Burry ('The Big Short') Loves Michael Burry, depicted by Christian Bale in 2015's "The Big Short," and his top stock holdings.

7 Stocks Michael Burry ('The Big Short') Loves

Cleveland-Cliffs ( CLF)

After a steep fall in August, shares of this domestic iron ore miner are underperforming the market year-to-date, up only 8% as steel and iron ore prices have plummeted due to the potential for a global economic slowdown. Despite the share price weakness, Cleveland-Cliffs just announced a 20% dividend hike and a one-time special dividend of 4 cents per share. Cleveland-Cliffs shares now trade at a miniscule 5.2 forward earnings multiple. Scion holds 1.1 million shares of CLF stock worth about $11.7 million.

money.usnews.com

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: richardred who wrote (5681)12/4/2019 1:38:51 PM
From: E_K_S
   of 6102
 
Re: ECA

When in a swing trade I use the 60 min chart and watch the standard SMA (20), (50) and (200). Similar SMA's on daily and weekly but w/ the 60 min chart you can see if rally is confirmed by breaking through each SMA level.

Finally we get a move in the WTI at $58.55/barrel +2.45 and ECA +4.29% back to $4.01/share. Seeing good moves in several of the other oilers (watching APA) too.

On the 60min chart had a break thru the SMA(20) and SMA(50) today. SMA(200) is @ $4.24/share so may make a small 1st sell at/near that price target. Plan is to see if I can book some quick gains on one or more of my recent Buys in ECA and look to putting that money into another beaten down Oiler but with a larger market cap and a good dividend payer. I prefer company has 100% exposure in US shale. Therefore, have APA on my short list.

APA has a 5.4% dividend and at/near multi year low. APA lost money on latest earnings report and 2020 estimates all over the board ($1.08/share high estimate vs - $1.78/share low estimate). Avg estimate still shows a loss. Will need to see if APA is stressed by debt and where their avg production costs come in at. Div may not be safe if expenses move higher and oil prices stall here. There may be other plays but my focus is on dividend payers.

Am also looking at pipeline companies that also have oil shale/gas JV's (WMB comes to mind). A 6.85% div payer and leveraged to NG w/ a small investment in the commodity.

Want something w/ minimum downside and not too much leverage. Still looking

EKS

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: E_K_S who wrote (5695)12/4/2019 1:55:25 PM
From: richardred
1 Recommendation   of 6102
 
ECA got oily with the 5.5 billion acquisition of Newfield. NG looks cheap at current prices and there's a long winter ahead. I've already noticed insiders have been buying CRZO since my purchases. This even tough a merger is still in the works.

P.S.

Message 31864073

Message 29733825

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: richardred who wrote (5673)12/5/2019 9:57:47 AM
From: richardred
3 Recommendations   of 6102
 
Took advantage of DLTH good earnings news. Assuming a big short cover on the news. Sold position at a good profit just under 11.00. I'll look for a possible opportunity to possibly get back in. This for reasons previously mentioned.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: richardred who wrote (5674)12/5/2019 10:02:53 AM
From: richardred
   of 6102
 
RE-CRZO worked out as a swing trade. Made a quick 1K.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: richardred who wrote (5698)12/5/2019 10:08:11 AM
From: E_K_S
   of 6102
 
For the Oil/NG swing plays . .Will look at swing trade position on 60 min chart up to close today and/or 1st hour tomorrow.

OPEC+ weighs deeper oil output cuts
Dec. 5, 2019 6:36 AM ET|About: The United States Oil ETF, LP (USO)|By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor

Reports out of Vienna suggest OPEC and its allies led by Russia are discussing increasing current cuts of 1.2M barrels per day by more than 400K bpd, as well as extending their agreement from March, to June or later.

Crude futures already soared 4.2% on Wednesday - the largest gain since the attacks on Saudi Aramco's facilities - on output cut rumors and tightening American stockpiles.

A final decision by OPEC+ is likely to come tomorrow afternoon. The group has curbed supply since 2017 to counter booming output from the U.S., which has become the world's biggest producer.

-----------------------------------------------

FWIW, hit the 30min SMA(200) for ECA at $4.11 after 1st 30mi. Looking for $4.21 before Opec announcement.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: richardred who wrote (5697)12/5/2019 10:24:12 AM
From: robert b furman
   of 6102
 
HI Rick,

Nice trading!

Those good earnings came from my purchase of a very nice warm sweater this quarter. <smile>

Bob

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1)


To: E_K_S who wrote (5699)12/5/2019 10:26:29 AM
From: richardred
   of 6102
 
I will be curious to see the NG draw number on the next report. Last report was bearish on a lower than expected draw.

Share RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read
Previous 10 Next 10