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   Strategies & Market TrendsSpeculating in Takeover Targets


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To: Fuzzy who wrote (5685)12/3/2019 1:48:33 PM
From: richardred
   of 6104
 
Interesting that you brought this Takeover up. I've added TMST TIMKENSTEEL CORPORATION to my watch list not to long ago.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (5687)12/3/2019 3:38:01 PM
From: Fuzzy
   of 6104
 
Yes CLF is way, way off of its all-time high...…..

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From: E_K_S12/4/2019 8:49:41 AM
   of 6104
 
Thoma Bravo acquiring Instructure in $2B deal
Dec. 4, 2019 8:46 AM ET|About: Instructure, Inc. (INST)|By: Brandy Betz, SA News Editor

Instructure (NYSE: INST) agrees to be acquired by PE firm Thoma Bravo for $47.60/share in cash.

The deal values INST at a $2B equity value.

The per share price represents an 18% premium to the three-month volume-weighted average price as of October 27, which was when the company announced the strategic review of its Bridge business.

CEO Dan Goldsmith and the current management team will continue to lead Instructure.

The agreement includes a 35-day go-shop period that expires on January 8.

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To: E_K_S who wrote (5691)12/4/2019 10:18:35 AM
From: Robert O
1 Recommendation   of 6104
 
It's informative to scan the entire M&A landscape for data points. This is a bit of an outlier that the pump up in share price since 'strategic alteratives' being looked at was first mentioned was overdone. The final price - if this is the final price - can sometimes not live up to expectations as here stock takes a 10% dump on deal 'done' news.

I would suggest that the larger the liquidity and market cap (often those two go together anyway) the more likely news has basically leaked out about true anticipated price within a tight range. If not on the dot. But for lesser knowns as here the guess was too high- or on a more cynical note those in know let it float up and dumped on way up to the top or shorted - either way chasers got burnt. Recall the Fitbit deal chasers after initial news leaked were rewarded by about 10% though on final deal price.

Dec 4 (Reuters) - Education software firm Instructure Inc (INST) said on Wednesday it would be bought by private equity investment firm Thoma Bravo in an all-cash deal for about $2 billion, giving into pressure from one of its shareholders pushing for a sale.

Stockholders of the company will receive $47.60 in cash per share, a discount of about 10% to Instructure's closing price of $52.96 on Tuesday.

Shares of the company were down about 10% at $47.85 in premarket trading.

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To: Robert O who wrote (5692)12/4/2019 11:03:45 AM
From: E_K_S
   of 6104
 
I noticed that. When I looked at their market cap and see they were still burning cash, that price was still good (even though it was a Buy Under).

Been looking at many of these 'Cloud' computing stocks and many/all demand huge price premiums. It's still amazing how a PE firm can pay that much for a company still w/ no earnings.

I see 2020 earnings estimate is still a loss w/ consensus showing a loss of $ 1.52/share.

It's a great concept 'cloud' based online education, especially w/ all the student debt, but not so sure INST has a durable 'moat' in their product/service.

Perhaps it an indication that many of the PE companies have tons of cash ready to deploy and it's more of cash looking for an investment.

Time will tell if this pans out.

EKS

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To: Fuzzy who wrote (5690)12/4/2019 1:36:23 PM
From: richardred
1 Recommendation   of 6104
 
RE-CLF -Nice rebound from yesterday on the initial merger news. BTW CLF is a Scion Capital/ Mike Burry stock pick. I've noticed TMST- TIMKENSTEEL CORPORATION is moving today to. IMO if this deal works out. I think it's possible a friendly deal of TMST could work out down the road?

P.S.
Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Slumped on the AK Steel News. Investors Just Might Be Wrong. -- Barrons.com
BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
— 8:23 AM ET 12/04/2019


7 Stocks Michael Burry ('The Big Short') Loves Michael Burry, depicted by Christian Bale in 2015's "The Big Short," and his top stock holdings.

7 Stocks Michael Burry ('The Big Short') Loves

Cleveland-Cliffs ( CLF)

After a steep fall in August, shares of this domestic iron ore miner are underperforming the market year-to-date, up only 8% as steel and iron ore prices have plummeted due to the potential for a global economic slowdown. Despite the share price weakness, Cleveland-Cliffs just announced a 20% dividend hike and a one-time special dividend of 4 cents per share. Cleveland-Cliffs shares now trade at a miniscule 5.2 forward earnings multiple. Scion holds 1.1 million shares of CLF stock worth about $11.7 million.

money.usnews.com

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To: richardred who wrote (5681)12/4/2019 1:38:51 PM
From: E_K_S
   of 6104
 
Re: ECA

When in a swing trade I use the 60 min chart and watch the standard SMA (20), (50) and (200). Similar SMA's on daily and weekly but w/ the 60 min chart you can see if rally is confirmed by breaking through each SMA level.

Finally we get a move in the WTI at $58.55/barrel +2.45 and ECA +4.29% back to $4.01/share. Seeing good moves in several of the other oilers (watching APA) too.

On the 60min chart had a break thru the SMA(20) and SMA(50) today. SMA(200) is @ $4.24/share so may make a small 1st sell at/near that price target. Plan is to see if I can book some quick gains on one or more of my recent Buys in ECA and look to putting that money into another beaten down Oiler but with a larger market cap and a good dividend payer. I prefer company has 100% exposure in US shale. Therefore, have APA on my short list.

APA has a 5.4% dividend and at/near multi year low. APA lost money on latest earnings report and 2020 estimates all over the board ($1.08/share high estimate vs - $1.78/share low estimate). Avg estimate still shows a loss. Will need to see if APA is stressed by debt and where their avg production costs come in at. Div may not be safe if expenses move higher and oil prices stall here. There may be other plays but my focus is on dividend payers.

Am also looking at pipeline companies that also have oil shale/gas JV's (WMB comes to mind). A 6.85% div payer and leveraged to NG w/ a small investment in the commodity.

Want something w/ minimum downside and not too much leverage. Still looking

EKS

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To: E_K_S who wrote (5695)12/4/2019 1:55:25 PM
From: richardred
1 Recommendation   of 6104
 
ECA got oily with the 5.5 billion acquisition of Newfield. NG looks cheap at current prices and there's a long winter ahead. I've already noticed insiders have been buying CRZO since my purchases. This even tough a merger is still in the works.

P.S.

Message 31864073

Message 29733825

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To: richardred who wrote (5673)12/5/2019 9:57:47 AM
From: richardred
3 Recommendations   of 6104
 
Took advantage of DLTH good earnings news. Assuming a big short cover on the news. Sold position at a good profit just under 11.00. I'll look for a possible opportunity to possibly get back in. This for reasons previously mentioned.

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To: richardred who wrote (5674)12/5/2019 10:02:53 AM
From: richardred
   of 6104
 
RE-CRZO worked out as a swing trade. Made a quick 1K.

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