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   Strategies & Market TrendsSpeculating in Takeover Targets


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To: robert b furman who wrote (4871)6/6/2018 12:36:32 PM
From: richardred
   of 6154
 
IMO It's more of a traders market these days Bob. I'm still a believer in valued long positions sprinkled with various types of trading. One being, a trading position and a longer term, Long position. sometime patience pays off long enough for both technical and fundamentals both kick in. Then you sometimes get that Cherry on top feeling. I however many times still end up going dumpster diving when others have given up their fill. CPB is there right now. If there's anything I think I've learned to due well over the years. Is adjusting to market conditions, both good & bad. If I started second guessing myself and gave up the first time my investment went bad. I would not be in the individual investor category. It's a second job to me . One I so much love to do. You have to take the good with the bad, and adjust. I've mostly thought you need past historical stock price data references for technical analysis patterns so market technicians can identify them for advanced decision making. The way I see it. Both Positive & Negative fundamentals drive those past historical patterns. In this new market age I think why not look at both. IMO When you have stock volume above the average norm. Then one, or the other, or both, got someones attention.

BTW I've noticed BRKS has moved back up smartly. Wink <0>

P.S.

I'm patiently waiting to see if VSH is coming into such conditions I've talked about. If not, I now own the biggest producer of Maraschino Cherries SENEA- Seneca Foods. BTW also bought some CPB OOTM leaps in CPB today. Soup might taste better this coming Jan. 2019

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To: richardred who wrote (4702)6/6/2018 12:59:23 PM
From: richardred
   of 6154
 
Sold both SABR option positions today for nice gains.

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From: richardred6/7/2018 10:15:34 AM
   of 6154
 
JVA- Speculation- Nice earnings and the traders are in the stock today. I remember the day the stock traded it's entire shares outstanding awhile back. Looks like sales growth strategy through small niche acquisitions & expanding new sales channels. This after loosing Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. These small niche acquisitions might be a good strategy moving forward. RE- last acquisition- Just thinking many small entrepreneurs who thought they could compete with the likes of Starbucks and others. Many now are struggling and thinking of selling out to small coffee companies that know the business well. Little kicker now. Smuckers who owns Folgers took a CPB type of hit today on a bad earnings report. Coffee seemed to be a brighter spot for them. Will they be compelled to add to coffee in a small way? Especially since Nestles has taken up the Starbucks slot in the coffee isle.

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To: richardred who wrote (4873)6/7/2018 10:54:47 AM
From: richardred
   of 6154
 
I'm patiently waiting to see if VSH is coming into such conditions I've talked about.


VSH gap up and a 52 week high today. The Market Gods must have heard me.<g>

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To: richardred who wrote (4826)6/7/2018 1:56:14 PM
From: richardred
   of 6154
 
Nibbled at some untimely HAIN today. IMO some of the latest food acquisition have come at a high goodwill cost (writedown), as CPB is finding out with Bolthouse & Garden Fresh. Hain's already has some respectable established organic brands with scale for some hypothetical parent with deep pockets. Campbell's already found the need to diversify again. This after things fell apart on their Bolthouse & Garden Fresh acquisition integration debacle. Personally I like the depressed food group a lot better than I liked the retail store group when they hit the dog house. Why, food is a necessity and lot closer to home than unnecessary discretionary items. It has been said recently big food producers are loosing their pricing power. One way to combat this is through consolidation. On the other hand. Amazon IMO could eventually add or keep hypothetically buying established Brand names such as HAIN or Campbells brands or others and deal with the blowback with Walmart and others? With Pepsi by far the biggest and most profitable snack company. What are they doing? IMO Coke has to be thinking down the road also. Will they venture away from drinks? The established food companies with scale also must be thinking the same. RE- Oligopoly-Chemicals Dow-Dupont- Monsanto- Bayer. IMO The Food business looks like an up and coming eventual oligopoly business. IMO the group will look a lot better if trucking prices come down. I think later this year fuel costs will come down. This because American Oil companies will be pumping. Natural Gas could also be making inroads into trucking. The insurance policy is ANWR. It's there and now partly available. IMO Prices would have to be compelling for a long time for development. With the exception of exploratory measures. I don't think it will have to be used any time soon.

BGS - HAIN - Speculation aspects - CAG had good earnings today. They sold their private label brands to Treehouse. The deal to sell it Wesson oil business is off due to regulatory concerns. I was used to remembering the talk of Private labels generally thriving in a recession environment. I think the economy is doing much better now a days. IMO meaning Brand names will see slower declines in historical traditional branded space and can withstand price increases better. I see companies using existing brand name awareness by creating or extending offshoot lines. This by way of healthier,organically,and strategically packaged lines geared for better for consumer tastes of today. IMO- A good earnings report today just might mean CAG is ready for a bigger acquisition? BGS & HAIN IMO BGS needs a bigger parent to compete better. IMO HAIN's itself has a good line of brands for newer consumers taste. The fact that GIS was willing to pay a big goodwill price (8 billion for a 1.3 billion business) for diversification. IMO Shows food companies are willing to make big moves for growth. Privately held Mars also made a big acquisition in the pet space. It's $9.1 billion acquisition of pet care company VCA. I also think wev'e got to the point now bigger food companies with want to fold in some of the acquisitions made by some of the smaller companies made to grow themselves faster. Pirate's Booty/Back to Nature Foods Company by BGS are examples.

P.S.
Costs are rising in the group and customers are trying to keep costs down. IMO Consolidation is one way to combat pressures from customers. I can't help but see some synergies here.

CAG snips> The Refrigerated & Frozen segment continued its growth momentum in the third quarter with 3.2% net sales growth.

>Volume declined 4%, driven by retailer inventory reductions, which were higher than anticipated, and deliberate actions to optimize distribution on certain lower-margin products, consistent with the Company's value over volume strategy. Price/mix declined 2% as the Company increased its investments with retail customers to drive brand saliency, enhanced distribution, and consumer trial. The acquisitions of the Duke's, BIGS, and Angie's BOOMCHICKAPOP businesses added approximately 500 basis points to the net sales growth rate.

BGS snip>Net sales growth was primarily driven by our three most recent acquisitions, all of which performed better than expected, as well as strong growth in Green Giant frozen and Pirate Brands

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To: richardred who wrote (4864)6/8/2018 12:00:27 PM
From: richardred
   of 6154
 
Added a little to TT SITT pick ASV today.

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To: richardred who wrote (2342)6/11/2018 1:27:44 PM
From: richardred
   of 6154
 
Stryker now wanting the whole company?

Boston Scientific shares rise on report that Stryker has made a takeover approach for company


    Medical device manufacturer Stryker approached rival Boston Scientific with a takeover bid, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
  • Shares of Boston Scientific rose nearly 10 percent after resuming trading.


cnbc.com

Message #2342 from richardred at 8/25/2010 12:54:20 PM

Stryker had 4 billion in cash now I know what there looking at.

UPDATE 1-Stryker to buy Gaymar for $150 million


* Stryker sees acquisition boosting earnings after 2011

* Gaymar now owned by two private equity firms

CHICAGO Aug 25 (Reuters) - Stryker Corp (SYK.N), a maker of orthopedic devices, hospital beds and surgical equipment, said it will acquire Gaymar Industries, which manufactures therapeutic mattresses and temperature-management products, for $150 million in cash.

The acquisition, expected to close by Oct. 1, is expected to be neutral to earnings in 2010 and 2011 and boost profits thereafter, Stryker said.

Gaymar, which had revenue of $77 million in 2009, has been owned by private equity firms Nautic Partners and Norwest Equity Partners since 2003.

Gaymar and Stryker, whose boards have approved the deal, have had a relationship under which Stryker has sold some Gaymar products.

"The acquisition of Gaymar Industries is consistent with our strategic goal of expanding our existing product offering and extensive sales force presence via innovative and value-added products," Chief Executive Stephen MacMillan said in a prepared statement.

Stryker is in advanced talks to buy Boston Scientific Corp's (BSX.N) neuromodulation business for about $1.5 billion, according to Bloomberg. (Reporting by Debra Sherman; editing by John Wallace)
reuters.com





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To: richardred who wrote (4869)6/12/2018 9:38:41 AM
From: richardred
   of 6154
 
Sold out of ACET , and out with a big profit.

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To: richardred who wrote (4880)6/12/2018 10:29:11 AM
From: richardred
   of 6154
 
Putting proceeds into BLMN- BLOOMIN BRANDS- Tilman Fertitta digested a big fish in the Houston Rockets. Jana Partners is being a patient fisherman. If the opportunity presents itself. Great TF synergies if another good BLMN Qtr. IMO. Still holding OOTM BLMN calls.

New buy today- BLMN- BLOOMIN BRANDS- It's been awhile since I've been in the restaurant space. I can't help, but think of post acquisition minded Tilman Fertitta, when I think of this company. I remember his chain of acquisitions over the years. Maybe he's ready to buy again? A good chance to turn around this under- performer? IMO a good way for him to get into new regional markets converting his signature brands from Bloomin's under-preforming restaurants. Another plus, taking out some competition to increase margins. A light dividend for holding if nothing acquisitive develops, but also a chance for operational improvement if nothing happens.

Some BLMN restaurants- possible synergies- steak & seafood- medium to upscale markets
Outback Steakhouse, a casual steakhouse restaurant; Carrabba's Italian Grill, a casual Italian restaurant; Bonefish Grill, an upscale casual seafood restaurant; and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, a contemporary steakhouse.

Against
Morton’s The Steakhouse, Rainforest Cafe, Bubba Gump Shrimp Co., McCormick & Schmick’s Seafood & Steaks, Saltgrass Steak House, Claim Jumper, Chart House, The Oceanaire, Mastro’s Restaurants, Vic & Anthony’s Steakhouse

P.S.
To be truthful. I used to like Outback, but currently I prefer Darden's Longhorn Steakhouse over Outback. Many of my friends say Carrabb's is very good. However they only seem to be open for dinner when I drive by. Olive Garden is open for Lunch.

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To: richardred who wrote (4868)6/13/2018 7:53:29 AM
From: richardred
   of 6154
 

Contango Oil & Gas (MCF) Major Shareholder John C. Goff Purchases 180,000 Shares
June 13th, 2018 - By Amy Steele - 0 comments
Contango Oil & Gas (NYSEAMERICAN:MCF) major shareholder John C. Goff acquired 180,000 shares of Contango Oil & Gas stock in a transaction on Tuesday, June 12th. The shares were purchased at an average cost of $4.45 per share, with a total value of $801,000.00. The purchase was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through this hyperlink. Large shareholders that own more than 10% of a company’s shares are required to disclose their transactions with the SEC.

thecerbatgem.com

Big volume today MCF. On a smaller scale I'm just thinking what Carl Icahn did to Sandridge Energy.



Added to MCF today on the downgrade. I think with oil prices where they are now. It's a new lease on life for this company. Next Qtr. will be a downer, but they will be sinking some new holes in the Delaware Basin. IMO 37% interest in Exaro should be sold now if they can find a buyer. Market Cap. of MCF under 100 million . IMO Compelling for a Private equity Corporate Raider or should I better say Corporate activist. This board needs to be pushed with all the 0 options being exercised and partials being monetized.

>As of December 31, 2017, the SEC PV-10 value of our proved reserves was approximately $257.3 million, compared to the SEC PV-10 value of $166.2 million as of December 31, 2016, an increase in our reserve value that was also attributable to our Southern Delaware Basin drilling program and the increase in commodity prices. The SEC-mandated prices used in determining our December 31, 2017 proved reserves and PV-10 value were $47.41 per barrel of oil and condensate, $2.92 per Mmbtu of natural gas and $18.59 per barrel of natural gas liquids, compared with SEC prices of $38.67/Bbl for oil and condensate, $2.43/Mmbtu for natural gas and $13.62/Bbl for natural gas liquids used in estimating proved reserves as of December 31, 2016.

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