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   Strategies & Market TrendsSpeculating in Takeover Targets


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From: Cautious_Optimist12/15/2016 12:26:45 PM
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One has to think that the Trump DOJ will not prioritize ant-trust and so we will see a wave of consolidation after January 20.

I am sure this has not escaped the stealthy strategic M&A speculators.

Big will swallow medium and small. Market share and reduced competition....

Probably the usual suspects... telecom and related.

Pharma.

Chemicals and petroleum.

Defense.

Content.

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To: Cautious_Optimist who wrote (4328)12/19/2016 11:46:58 AM
From: richardred
   of 6147
 
I will be watching with great interest. If GDP growth accelerates in the US, as anticipated. I can see the US market being attractive. Especially to acquisition minded foreign & low US exposure market share, participating companies. This for synergistic acquisitions or new plant investments. Currently, I can't see a Trump administration being friendly to Chinese companies wanting to buy US based companies of scale. This such as the previously approved Smithfield foods deal.

I just bought some risky & depressed MNTX today. Ironically TEREX which was on Chinese based Zoomlion acquisition list is trading higher now than the original cash offer. I also hypothetically think this smaller type size could get through. I sold my TEX, but I still believe infrastructure spending will be a bright spot. IMO TEX could also be interested in buying back MNTX.

P.S.

goupstate.com




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To: richardred who wrote (4329)12/19/2016 12:08:55 PM
From: richardred
   of 6147
 
Japan's SMBC buying US freight car lessor Purchase of American Railcar Leasing coincides with Trump infrastructure promises

TOKYO -- Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. plans to acquire a U.S. company that leases freight cars in a move calculated to gain from demand spurred by infrastructure spending once President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

SMBC will purchase all shares of American Railcar Leasing owned by a fund controlled by U.S. billionaire investor Carl Icahn. The deal, thought to be worth in the neighborhood of $3 billion, is set to close during the first half of next year.

ARL is the sixth-largest freight car leasing company in the U.S. based on the number of cars owned. Customers leasing ARL cars include those moving cereals and grains, petrochemicals and natural resources. The company earned roughly 12 billion yen ($102 million) in operating profit on approximately 35 billion yen in sales for the year ended December 2015.

SMBC purchased another U.S. rail car leasing company in December 2013, which was rebranded as SMBC Rail Services. The Japanese banking corporation aims to expand its American market share with the latest deal. SMBC will consider merging the two units at a later date.

Freight car leasing has long been considered a stable growth business since it relies on domestic demand, but there is a chance that an economic stimulus package coming from the Trump administration will give the segment an added lift. If Trump's domestic policies lead to increased infrastructure spending, it will boost demand for shipping.

SMBC began negotiations about the purchase before the November election, but apparently the Japanese group decided that leasing opportunities will increase if Trump delivers on his pledge to build a strong American economy.

Overseas strategies at Japanese banking groups have centered on Asia for the past few years, but that approach now faces headwinds in the face of economic slowdowns. Some observers say those lenders are shifting the focus of their international expansion to the U.S. for the time being. The three Japanese megabanks lent $176.5 billion to North America during the year ended March 2016, according to the Bank of Japan. That marks another double-digit increase over the previous year, putting North America ahead of Asia as the largest lending market for the megabanks.

Inside Japan, the BOJ's negative rate policy continues to put the squeeze on deposit and lending margins. The problem is compounded by the woeful demand for corporate financing, pushing banks to develop sources of earnings outside of loans.

asia.nikkei.com

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To: richardred who wrote (4329)12/19/2016 12:47:54 PM
From: Cautious_Optimist
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I can't see a Trump administration being friendly to Chinese companies wanting to buy US based companies of scale
That is a really interesting thought...

However... If new Trump properties appear in Beijing and China... (sorry, just being snarky.)

Surprisingly, perceptions are different in China:

forbes.com

A weaker dollar vs. China could be the key indicator.


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To: richardred who wrote (4325)12/20/2016 12:26:42 PM
From: richardred
   of 6147
 
Added to TDC & HBIO today.

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To: Cautious_Optimist who wrote (4331)12/20/2016 1:25:28 PM
From: richardred
   of 6147
 
Interesting point- snip >That’s particularly significant since Chinese citizens have now risen to become the No. 1 source of international investment into U.S. real estate. They bought $27.3 billion in that asset class in the 12 months through March 2016, 27% of the $102.6 billion total that came from abroad into U.S. bricks and mortar.

P.S. Only in the USA- Just stopped by Ulta yesterday to pick up my last Christmas gifts. Urban Decay cosmetics for my daughters. Maybe Loreal will have to re-name the line. <G>

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From: richardred12/22/2016 12:03:31 PM
   of 6147
 
New buy today INCR-INC Research Holdings

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From: richardred12/22/2016 1:23:52 PM
   of 6147
 
Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays to all who look in
From Rick the Pressman



P.S. Ceramic piece done by a dear, now retired, art school teacher friend of ours. She did it as a gift to represent our family. I'll be back after Christmas.

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To: richardred who wrote (4068)12/31/2016 11:42:45 AM
From: richardred
   of 6147
 
Happy New Year To All IN 2017 2016 SITT year in review. First Two hits on 2016 Top ten SITT list. Newport & TEX. Tex however was not completed. NEWPORT/ by MKS instrments. UNTD was taken out this year. However it ended up being a wash/ or small take under for myself. AMCC- Applied Micro Circuits was taken out. Along with HAR/Harmon INT. (not yet completed). Biggest losses this year were AVP & MCF. I sold out losing positions due to earlier booked gains. Biggest gain this year was CECE/Ceco int. Biggest loss was AVP from the remaining stake I held on to from the failed COTY bid. MY Biggest disappointment - selling my NVIDIA Corporation-NVDA way to early. Biggest surprise- was the % overall gain I achieved in a portfolio of over 30 stocks this year. This mainly due to having weighted positions in gainers along with Savvy option trading. The way this year started out . That's why it was a surprise. Some Of the biggest gains have been booked already. Sitting on 30% cash now.

P.S.


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To: richardred who wrote (4336)12/31/2016 12:07:39 PM
From: richardred
   of 6147
 
TOP TEN TAKEOUT SITT LIST FOR 2017

New rankings and Several Repeats.

  1. INCR
  2. CTG
  3. TDC
  4. VSH
  5. IXYS
  6. MNTX
  7. HBIO
  8. ANIK
  9. SYKE
  10. JVA

    P.S. Takeout list for 1980 :+ )

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