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   PastimesAMAT Off-Topic Forum

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To: willcousa who wrote (741)5/3/2002 8:06:39 PM
From: Jerome
   of 786
>>><now, on with the rally><<<

If peace does break out in the ME than some optimism will result on the stock market. If this happens we will call it Michael' rally.

Pessimism about the Arabs, The Israeli situation, Oil Prices, Bush's publicized determination to invade Irag, have been pushing the market to new lows.

Today for the first time in many moons I bought a stock that did not immediately tank as soon as my order filled. (ORCL). I still can't believe that my fill today at 8 has to be averaged in with those shares I bought at 10, 12, 14, 15, and 17. Red is getting to be my favorite color, because it shows up across my entire spread sheet. Probably an isolated problem, since most posters (on SI) time the market accurately, sell the losers and buy nothing but winners. Oh Well this week-end its back to the drawing board.

Anyone see my darts....Jerome

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To: Jerome who wrote (743)5/3/2002 8:51:12 PM
From: michael97123
   of 786
Think of how happy you will be when oracle and sun hit 20 and jdsu touches 10. When i factor those gains to all of my stocks i wind up back where i was at the height of the bubble. A triple from here to 20--its just wild to think about it but 8-20 is less wild than from 40-8. So two to three years out we will once again smile. Just hope we are in the right stocks. Jacob believes market will hold 1600 and recommends ntap, amat, altr, csco. mike

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To: michael97123 who wrote (744)5/7/2002 7:53:58 AM
From: Fred Levine
   of 786
Required reading from the NY Times:

Israel Has Nothing to Hide


AIFA, Israel — What changed Israel's initial decision to accept a United Nations "fact-finding
committee" on the Jenin refugee camp into a furious rejection?

From the beginning, Israel's acceptance of the committee was tinged with grave misgivings. The United
Nations has long since lost any claim to impartiality with respect to Israel. The anti-Semitic conference on
racism it sponsored in Durban last summer is but one example of ingrained bias against Israel. Nevertheless,
Israelis were so confident that an honest fact finding would exonerate Israel of the wild charges being made by
Palestinians and humanitarian organizations that they initially acquiesced to the proposal.

However, when the committee mandate and composition were finally revealed, they convinced Israelis across
the political spectrum that Secretary General Kofi Annan had set a trap for Israel.

In order to render a fair and unbiased judgment on the conduct of any military operation, two basic conditions
must be met. First, the operation must be placed in the context of the causes that gave rise to it. Without that
context, no judgment on the proportionality of the response is possible. Second, the operation must be
assessed in comparison to other such military actions.

Yet the United Nations committee was asked to examine the Israeli Defense
Force's actions in Jenin and the suffering of Jenin's inhabitants without
reference to the earlier terrorism coming out of the Jenin camp that had
triggered the Israeli action. In short, the committee would evaluate Israel's
war on terrorism without any reference to terrorism.

Imagine a team sent to investigate American military action in Afghanistan
without reference to the attacks of Sept. 11 or Osama bin Laden's boasts
that he would destroy America. And imagine asking that investigation to
ignore the sanctuary the Taliban gave Mr. bin Laden and his Qaeda
operatives despite previous American warnings.

Stripped of that context, the United States would inevitably be found guilty of
having assaulted one of the poorest and most backward countries on the face
of the earth and of inflicting unnecessary harm on the civilian population. A
similar inquiry into the massive allied bombing of Germany in World War II
would have resulted in charges of war crimes against Franklin D. Roosevelt
and Winston Churchill.

But this kind of distorted result is exactly what the United Nations'
noncontextual fact-hiding strategy would have arrived at. To examine the Israeli operations in Jenin and at
similar sites with no reference to the nonstop Palestinian suicide bombings and other terrorist attacks
dispatched from those sites — these attacks killed more than 100 Israeli civilians in March alone, a number
that translates for tiny Israel to the equivalent of twice the number of Americans killed on Sept. 11 — suggests
an intent to find Israel guilty in advance.

The second major flaw was hidden in the committee composition: most of its members possessed no military
background. Moreover, there was no indication that the military operation would be assessed in comparison
to other military operations with similar missions; for example, by comparing civilian casualties in Jenin to
civilian casualties inflicted by the Russian ground forces in Chechnya or by the American air forces in

Israelis are confident that any fair comparative examination of the Israeli Defense Force actions in Jenin would
show that the soldiers made extraordinary efforts to minimize civilian casualties in the nine-day battle there.
Twenty-three Israeli infantrymen would be alive today had the army made a decision to use its airplanes and
artillery to wipe out the armed opposition more quickly.

Israel has nothing to hide. Israel rejected the United Nations fact-finding committee not because of what the
committee sought to explore, but because of what it was determined to ignore.

Yuval Steinitz is chairman of the subcommittee for defense planning and policy of the Israeli Knesset.


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To: michael97123 who wrote (744)5/7/2002 7:57:09 AM
From: Fred Levine
   of 786

I have changed my mind in your direction. The issue, IMO, is simple. Israel is correct if Arafat supports terrorism and wrong if Arafat is against terrorism. The answer, IMO, is quite clear.


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To: Fred Levine who wrote (746)5/7/2002 10:13:26 AM
From: michael97123
   of 786
Our view leads to a new question now. Should the Israelis continue the settlements and start annexing those that are contiguous to Israel? If the answer is yes, the Palestinian state which is non-viable from the get-go becomes even more so. Perhaps the jordanians want it back. Perhaps that wouldnt be too bad a thing. 80% of all pals live in jordan anyway. I am not proposing this. I am just thinking outloud. mike

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To: michael97123 who wrote (747)5/7/2002 10:57:29 PM
From: Jerome
   of 786
Mike...>>Should the Israelis continue the settlements <<<

No the settlements are what got the Israeli's in this predicament in the first place.

Today Hamaas showed its ugly head again. This brings around the point that military excursion in the west bank was focused on Arafat and Hamaas is still functioning.

Question...Why is the Israeli military having such a hard time locating the Hamaas organization? Are they operating from Syria or Lebanon?

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To: Fred Levine who wrote (745)5/7/2002 11:04:27 PM
From: Jerome
   of 786
>>Israel Has Nothing to Hide <<<

So in summary he (Yuval Steinitz) can say...the fox in the hen house should be making the rules.

His reasoning is logical...and I'm sure that all Israeli's in Israel agree...but its the rest of the countries of the world that have their doubts.


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To: Jerome who wrote (748)5/8/2002 8:39:01 AM
From: michael97123
   of 786
What Israel should have done in retrospect after the 1967 war was to annex at least the part of the West Bank that was deemed necessary for its security. The settlements were designed to do that more slowly while prodding the arabs(all the arabs) to negotiate a peace deal. Never happened and the settlements now have quasi-relgious standing among "Greater Israel" believers. At this point, all that matters are facts on the ground so some ideas(not proposals).
1. Israel should annex those key parts of the west bank once and for all and the rest(after a stated period time) should be turned over to the Arabs. That includes many settlements by the way. Since the Pals want all of Palestine including israel anyway how much more pissed off will this make them? NOt much I suspect.
2. There are still terror cells in Palestine. So more terror is likely but it will be less than before.
3. Hamas gets aid and comfort from iran and syria and from numerous charities. Iran is too far to go but perhaps Syria and Hizbollah should be taught a lesson on the other front. Did anyone say escalation.
4. Arafat might be of help as it relates to religious fundamentalist terrorists who hate him more than they hate sharon. Israel and PA in an unholy alliance of sorts??
5. Iraq confirmed the axis of evil with iran threatening the US of a joint response. I suggest the Iranians should unbundle now.
6. Why cant jordan/saudi arabia administer west bank during this period to lessen terrorism and keep israelis out.

7. Must reading below. Although the liberals denounce this logic, i too suspect it is true except for a few exceptions.

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To: Jerome who wrote (749)5/8/2002 8:44:13 AM
From: michael97123
   of 786
BTW Jerome,

The market 1-13-1(tie) record about to go positive at least for a day. And i own cisco(hope you do to) so at least Economic mike can smile a bit today while Political Mike and Religious Mike continue to shed some tears.
Guys on the amat thread got creamed this past week even the gurus so perhaps this is the bottom. Everything tells me that boomtimes(of a sort) will return next year when all that antiquated 1999 hardware and software must finally be replaced. What the cisco numbers say to me is what morgan said a year ago--they will all come with orders at the same time. With productivitiy now at record levels and pricing power returning think of next years comparisons. Since the market anticipates 6-9 months now for the 19th time i think is the time to buy. But alas out of money and out of courage. mike

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To: michael97123 who wrote (750)5/8/2002 9:19:04 AM
From: Fred Levine
   of 786
Mike-- Not only should Israel not expand, it should remove the settlements. They are an expensive indefensible provocation to the Palestinians. Peace will never be achieved with this thorn in the Palestinians' side. In addition, altho world opinion is hardly primary, it it not to be ignored. Finally, it is my belief that the settlements were and are wrong. Sharon was housing minister when the policy of settlements were begun, and they have created problems. BTW, my son studied in a settlement in the W Bank. I wasn't happy.


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