| To: Thomas M. who started this subject | 12/13/2001 1:47:31 PM | | From: Thomas M. | | | | Anti-Environmentalist gets shredded by experts:
gristmagazine.com
Check out how he fudges data:
gristmagazine.com
Not Seeing the Forest for the Trees
On Bjorn Lomborg and deforestation
by Emily Matthews
12 Dec 2001
In The Skeptical Environmentalist, Bjorn Lomborg writes that "basically,
the world's forests are not under threat." A charitable reader could
attribute this flawed conclusion to errors of omission and ignorance;
perhaps the author simply doesn't know the sources well enough to
interpret them properly. Less charitably, one might reasonably conclude
that Lomborg intentionally selects his data and citations to distort or
even reverse the truth. His interpretations of data on global forest cover
and Indonesian forest fires aptly illustrate both failings.
Lomborg scorns an analysis by the
World Wildlife Fund that found that
nearly two-thirds of the world's original
forests, dating to the pre-agricultural
period (defined as 6000 BC), have at
one time been cut. He challenges it by
stating that, "Most sources estimate
about 20 percent." Whatever the
merits of WWF's claim, Lomborg
confusingly contrasts net loss of
forest cover (that is, his figure of
loss of natural forest offset by
regrowth and new plantations)
with loss of original forest (WWF's
figure).
Moreover, the sources Lomborg cites in the relevant footnote do not
support his claim. The first, a 1993 college textbook by Andrew Goudie,
indeed gives a figure of 20 percent net loss in forest cover since
pre-agricultural times. However, its author provides no reference or
authority for this number. The second source, by Michael Williams, is
stated in the footnote as giving the (amazingly) low figure of 7.5 percent
loss, but a review of the source itself reveals that Lomborg has misread
7.5 million square kilometers as though it were a percentage.
The last two sources mentioned in the footnote, which give figures of 19
and 20 percent, do not purport to measure forest loss during the entire
8,000-year period for which Lomborg cites them. On the contrary, these
two sources cover only tiny fractions of the relevant time period -- less
than 4 percent (300 years) and 2 percent (140 years), respectively --
and even so, each registers roughly a 20 percent loss of forest.
Barking Up the Wrong Tree
Another claim by Lomborg -- that global forest cover has remained
remarkably stable over the past 50 years -- is based on two acts of
statistical conjuring. First, he expresses changes in forest cover as a
percentage of the total land area of the world, a technique that reduces
changes of millions of hectares to fractions of 1 percent. Second, he
cobbles together a variety of different data sources compiled using
different definitions of forest and different methodologies. These
different data sets cannot be strung together to form a consistent time
series. The United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization, the
"official source" on which Lomborg proudly claims to rely, does not
attempt to construct such a time series. Yet the first graph in Lomborg's
chapter on forests prominently features an FAO data series of forest
cover that was generated for agricultural purposes and discontinued by
FAO precisely because it considered the data unreliable for assessing
forests.
FAO forestry data can be difficult to
understand, as Lomborg's notes make
amusingly clear. In Note 767, he defines
closed forest as 20 percent of forest cover
rather than forest where the tree canopy
covers 20 percent or more of the ground.
More seriously, he appears to believe that
the U.N. carried out two global forest
surveys in 1995 and 1997. In fact, the U.N.
surveys forests only once per decade. The
1990 survey was updated with a
mathematical model to the year 1995 and
these results were published in the 1997
State of the Forest report.
Are the world's forests "basically not
under threat," as Lomborg claims?
Lomborg quotes the FAO's most recent survey, the Forest Resources
Assessment 2000, which states that, "Tropical forests are being
deforested...at an annual rate of 0.46 percent." Lomborg claims this
figure is "much below the feared 1.5-4.6 percent" rate, although he
provides no clue as to who feared such extraordinary rates. But there is
a serious error here: Lomborg is quoting the FAO's figure for global
deforestation, not tropical deforestation. The vast majority of forest
clearance is occurring in the tropics -- forest area is actually expanding
in most of the temperate zone -- so this error grossly distorts the rate of
tropical deforestation.
According to the 2000 report, about 161 million hectares of natural
forest were lost during the 1990s, of which 152 million hectares (about
94 percent) were in the tropical world. The 2000 report puts total global
forest cover at about 3.9 billion hectares, 95 percent of which is "natural
forest," meaning that there are about 3.7 billion hectares of natural
forest. Of this, 47 percent, or 1.74 billion hectares, is in the tropics. Thus
if 152 million hectares of natural tropical forests were lost during the
1990s, from a total natural tropical forest area of 1.74 billion hectares,
then tropical forests shrank by 8.7 percent over the decade -- an annual
average rate of 0.87 percent.
In the Line of Fire
Lomborg devotes an entire page to Indonesia's fires of 1997-1998,
acknowledging that they were serious but also claiming that they were
not out of the ordinary. He criticizes WWF for estimating that 2 million
hectares burned and contrasts this claim with the "official Indonesian
estimate" of 165,000-219,000 hectares. He notes that the WWF
estimate included both forest and non-forestland, but does not point out
that the official Indonesian estimate he quotes was for forestland only.
He then claims, citing a 1999 United Nations Environment Programme
report, that subsequent "satellite-aided counting" indicated that
upwards of 1.3 million hectares of forest and timberlands may have
burned.
The official Indonesian estimate of 520,000
burned hectares of forest and non-forest land
was based on reports by plantation owners --
who were responsible for much of the
deliberate fire-setting and had no incentive to
report accurately. This estimate was quickly
challenged by the German-supported
Integrated Forest Fires Management Project,
which, using satellite data and ground checks,
produced convincing evidence that fires had
actually burned some 5.2 million hectares in
1998 alone -- 10 times the Indonesian
government's estimate. Informed of this data gap, the Indonesian
Ministry of Forestry and Estate Crops effectively instructed the governor
of East Kalimantan (the province that suffered the worst fires) not to
allow the new data to be made public, citing the need "to protect
national stability." Despite strong official protests from the German
government, the Indonesians never retracted their original estimate or
made the new data public.
Regarding estimates of how much forest actually burned, Lomborg
cites a UNEP report, which in turn refers to an analysis, "A Study of the
1997 Fires in Southeast Asia Using SPOT Quicklook Mosaics," that
was based on 766 satellite images. These images covered the islands
of Kalimantan and Sumatra only, for just August to December 1997.
The study did not examine burn areas for 1998, nor did it take into
account fires on other islands. The UNEP report states that this
estimate represents "only a lower limit estimate of the area burned,"
although Lomborg's readers are not so informed.
An analysis by the Singapore Centre of Remote Imaging, Sensing, and
Processing using the same satellite images yielded a total burn area
estimate for 1997 and 1998 of nearly 8 million hectares. In 1999, a
technical team funded by the Asian Development Bank and working
through the Indonesian National Development Planning Agency
aggregated and analyzed all available data sources and estimated that
the area burned during 1997-1998 totaled more than 9.7 million
hectares, of which some 4.6 million hectares were forest.
Thus, the most authoritative consensus estimate of the extent of forests
burned during the Indonesian fires of 1997-1998 is more than twice the
WWF estimate that is derided by Lomborg.
Lomborg's interpretation of global
forest cover and Indonesian forest
fires are just two examples of the
incomplete and superficial analyses that underpin too much of this
book. In his introduction, the statistician tells us that his skills lie in
"knowing how to handle international statistics." A few paragraphs later,
he confesses that, "I am not myself an expert as regards environmental
problems." Unfortunately, statistical prowess by itself does not
guarantee accuracy, insight, or understanding. A little more expert
knowledge would have significantly diluted this book's glib optimism.
Indeed, the book would probably never have been written.
- - - - - - - - -
Emily Matthews is a senior associate at the World Resources Institute.
She is the lead author of the Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems:
Forest Ecosystems (WRI, 2000) and Understanding the Forest
Resources Assessment 2000 (WRI, 2001). Her latest report, The State
of the Forest: Indonesia, will be released in January 2002 by WRI's
Global Forest Watch. |
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| To: Thomas M. who started this subject | 12/13/2001 1:56:21 PM | | From: Thomas M. | | | | During the War on Terrorism, with the nation in a frenzy over terrorist plots in our borders, this story is not being reported at all.
washingtonpost.com
Two Calif. Men Charged In Plot to Bomb Mosque
Both Belong to Militant Jewish Group
By William Booth
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, December 13, 2001; Page A01
LOS ANGELES, Dec. 12 -- Two leaders of the militant Jewish Defense League were arrested here Tuesday night as they were assembling bombs to use in planned attacks against one of the city's largest mosques and the local offices of an Arab American House member, federal officials announced today.
The two men, Irving David Rubin and Earl Leslie Krugel, were charged today with conspiracy to manufacture and detonate bombs targeting Arab and Muslim buildings in the Los Angeles area, as well as the San Clemente offices of Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), who is a grandson of Lebanese immigrants.
Krugel, 59, was arrested at his home in Reseda as he was receiving delivery from a police informant of five pounds of gunpowder of the type used to fire cannons. Inside the home were two drilled foot-long pipes, end caps and fuses. There were also a dozen rifles and handguns.
FBI officials described the bomb components as relatively sophisticated, ready for assembly and capable of blowing out the doors and windows of a building and killing anyone nearby.
"The devices appeared to be constructed to destroy property, though, of course, anyone near them when they exploded probably would have been seriously injured or killed," said Ronald Iden, the assistant director in charge of the FBI's Los Angeles field office.
Krugel was described by the FBI as "a leading member" of the Jewish Defense League and Rubin as "the leader" of the group, which federal officials characterized today as "a violent, subversive organization" that was preparing to engage in acts of domestic terrorism. The FBI had the organization under surveillance since receiving a tip from an informant in October, officials said.
In court papers, FBI agents detailed wiretaps and taped conversations between the informant and Rubin and Krugel in which they discussed their motivations. Krugel stated that "Arabs needed a wake-up call and that the JDL needed to do something to one of their 'filthy' mosques," according to FBI wiretaps.
The JDL was founded by Rabbi Meir Kahane to defend Jews against anti-Semitic attacks in New York during the 1980s. Kahane was murdered in 1990. Before his death, he founded the extremist Kach party in Israel, which advocated the expulsion of all Arabs from Israel and Israeli-occupied territories.
Rubin, 56, was arrested Tuesday evening while driving near his home after meeting with Krugel and an FBI informant at Jerry's Famous Deli in Encino.
Rubin's attorney, Peter Morris, said his client is innocent and the victim of overzealous prosecution by the government in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. If convicted, Rubin and Krugel face 30 years in prison.
Rubin and Krugel had been under surveillance since the confidential source approached the FBI and told agents that he was a member of the JDL and that he had planted a bomb at a mosque at the direction of JDL leaders.
FBI officials declined to reveal more information about the confidential source or the alleged bombings in the past.
But according to federal investigators, the source met repeatedly with Rubin and Krugel to purchase bomb components, to discuss tactics and to review photographs of possible targets.
In one exchange, Rubin allegedly said that "it was his desire to blow up an entire building, but the JDL did not have the technology to accomplish such a bomb."
In the wiretaps, Krugel and Rubin tell the informant that the bombings should strike buildings and not human targets -- "because they still had not heard the end of the Alex Odeh incident," a reference to the ongoing investigation into the 1985 murder in Santa Ana, Calif., of Alexander Odeh, regional director of the American Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee.
Odeh was killed when a bomb delivered to his office blew up. A $1 million reward for information leading to the arrest of anyone connected with the Odeh bombing was announced today.
The targets discussed by Rubin and Krugel, according to the FBI, included the King Fahd Mosque in Culver City, the offices of the Muslim Public Affairs Council in Los Angeles and the southern California offices of Issa.
Today, Issa, a freshman member of the House, said: "I have no way of knowing why I have become the focus and target of these individuals. Like most Americans, my hope and wish is for a peaceful resolution to the Middle East conflict."
The Muslim Public Affairs Council employs about a dozen people in a large office building along Wilshire Boulevard in Los Angeles. The council works to educate the media, the public and elected officials about Islam.
Salam Marayati, the council's executive director in Los Angeles, said that one of his colleagues was threatened after a recent speech at the University of Judaism. But, otherwise, the council has not received any specific terrorist threats, he said.
Marayati said that if the attack had succeeded, it would have terrified local Muslims in the midst of Ramadan celebrations.
"People are trying to focus on their spiritual needs," Marayati said. "It really would have amounted to carnage on our streets."
Marayati praised the FBI for "showing and underscoring that terrorism is not monopolized by any one religion. It's a problem across the board."
However, he was concerned that future attacks could be in the works.
"We don't believe that it's limited to two people," Marayati said. "We're concerned that there's a wider network."
Mainstream Jewish groups applauded law enforcement for the arrests and denounced the JDL and its members.
"The Jewish Defense League is a tiny organization that employs tactics that are counter to the values of the Jewish community," said Rabbi Gary Greenebaum, a director of the American Jewish Committee.
Special correspondent Jeff Adler contributed to this report.
© 2001 The Washington Post Company |
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| To: Thomas M. who wrote (105) | 12/13/2001 1:57:52 PM | | From: Thomas M. | | | | washingtonpost.com
JDL Chairman Accused in Bomb Plot
By Linda Deutsch
Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, December 12, 2001; 3:53 PM
LOS ANGELES –– The chairman of the militant Jewish Defense League and a follower have been arrested on suspicion of plotting to blow up a Los Angeles mosque and the office of an Arab American congressman, federal authorities said Wednesday.
Irv Rubin, 56, and a member of the group, Earl Krugel, 59, both of Los Angeles, were arrested Tuesday night after the last component of the bomb – explosive powder – was delivered to Krugel's home, U.S. Attorney John S. Gordon said.
Other bomb components and weapons were seized at Krugel's home.
Authorities said the plot targeted a mosque in Culver City and the office of Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif.
Issa is the grandson of Lebanese immigrants.
Rubin and Krugel were expected to appear in court later Wednesday. The complaint against them quotes Krugel as making a comment during a meeting that Arabs "need a wakeup call."
Authorities were tipped off by a government source about a series of meetings where the scheme to bomb the King Fahd Mosque and Issa's office was hammered out, Gordon said.
The original target was to be the Muslim Public Affairs Council in Los Angeles, but the target was changed during a meeting last weekend.
"Prior to last night's arrest, the source delivered explosive powder, the last component required to begin construction of the bomb, to Krugel's residence," the U.S. attorney's office said.
It wasn't immediately clear when the alleged plot began.
"Irv Rubin never had anything to do with explosives," said Rubin's attorney, Peter Morris. "It seems to us that, given the timing ... the government's action is part of an overreaction to the Sept. 11 events."
Rubin's wife, Shelley, said her husband and Earl "are completely innocent of anything. They are law-abiding, good people."
Originally formed by Meir Kahane to mount armed response to anti-Semitic acts in New York, the JDL gained notoriety when its members were linked to bombings, most of them aimed at Soviet targets in retaliation for the way that country treated its Jewish population.
Kahane left the JDL in the 1980s. A power struggle ensued, with Rubin among the contenders for its leadership.
Kahane was assassinated in New York in 1990. El Sayyid Nosair, 36, an Egyptian-born Muslim, was convicted in connection with the shooting.
Rubin has made a career out of confrontation, challenging white supremacists to fistfights, or burning a Confederate flag outside a courthouse. By his own count he has been arrested more than 40 times. In 1980, he was tried and found innocent of soliciting the murders of Nazis in the United States.
A suit filed by Rubin resulted in a court decision last year banning prayer during Burbank City Council meetings.
© 2001 The Associated Press |
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