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Biotech / Medical biotech fireworks

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (2540)	6/30/2006 6:27:18 PM
From: Mike McFarland	of 7424

Oh! arql from ~$4 to $5.5, what a trade. I hope somebody from SI got a piece of that-- maybe Rick or Tuck? Anybody? I am just looking at the yahoo chart, which shows a large block at the very end, so that certainly looks like a short-covering rally. It makes one wonder... The scenario where it was going to trade down on Friday in response to the Russell rebalancing...a little idea planted by some hedge fund intern? To reduce the competition for that trade? Someday, I will be able to read the tea leaves and catch trades like this. I will know when somebody has their poker face on, and I'll score great trades like that. Someday. It certainly doesn't make sense to read Yahoo--who knows what is a lie, or what is a lie within a lie, or what is a bluff. (Or the yahooligans have no idea what hit the stock either).

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To: Mike McFarland who wrote (2541)	6/30/2006 7:46:48 PM
From: Ian@SI	of 7424

I caught the $4.90 to $5.48 piece on 1/2 my position which I hope to buy back within the next week or so. But I've got to believe that more nimble traders like Rick must have picked up a bigger chunk of the volatility. I'm seeing a 5.64 close with over 13M shares traded during the closing minute.

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (2542)	6/30/2006 8:01:09 PM
From: Mike McFarland	of 7424

What tools to you use to trade? I'm not really in a position to daytrade, with two little kids demanding my attention. And often the neighbor kids too. I am usually outdoors away from a PC etc etc. But...I can imagine a cellphone that has what I would need to trade. Surely they have cellphones now that will download data about every half hour automatically. That said, you can lay down a strategy the day before and still fail utterly the next day. Well, that was a good trade for you, well done.

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To: Mike McFarland who wrote (2543)	6/30/2006 8:12:16 PM
From: Ian@SI	of 7424

I have real time streaming Indices, quotes, charts, news. I look at long term charts, moving averages, RSI, money flows and, especially, Rick's suggestions<G>. I don't think I stand a chance against the professionals with their computer trading algorithms; so I tend to make real time decisions which may follow no precise formula. e.g. At this point, I have several naked put positions outstanding. So my recent trading tends toward building a cash cushion to protect against an early assignment. Have a good weekend, Ian

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (2544)	7/1/2006 1:00:13 PM
From: tuck	of 7424

TRCA was up over 20% Friday. If it's news, it's being priced in pretty slowly, as last news was Monday, and the big moves were Wednesday and Friday. Don't really follow it, but I understand the stock had been whacked recently on loosing some sort of ground to Insmed, which makes a similar product for the same population. Say, Ian, I know of at least one other trade of yours that's going well so far. Good going! I, too, loaded a bit of biotech recently, and a bit too early. Chiefly AMGN, PDLI, ARNA, ENCY (my best timed purchase of the lot). Other positions that had calls written against them no longer do. Summer rally, please, for more than two days, this time? Pretty please, sugar on top? Cheers, Tuck

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To: tuck who wrote (2545)	7/1/2006 3:01:13 PM
From: hmpa	of 7424

TRCA was up over 20% Friday This seems to be a part of a "very" unusual pattern for Russell additions and exclusions. Unlike any of the previous years I am aware of, most of the dumped issues went up in a meaningful way (e.g. see ISTA), while additions somewhat slumped, see e.g. finance.yahoo.com I don't understand why it could have happened - other than for some reason accumulated short and long positions, respectively, in anticipation of the rebalancing were bigger than actual demand for shares. (Alternative is if there is a large net short position on Russell ETF - I have no clue how it is getting processed - does ETF have to go and short the shares?)

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To: hmpa who wrote (2546)	7/1/2006 8:19:24 PM
From: Ian@SI	of 7424

I think the hedge funds from time to time get carried away with their attempts to steal nickles and dimes. The volume at the close on Friday was absolutely unreal both Nas and NYSE going over 3B shares.

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To: tuck who wrote (2545)	7/1/2006 8:27:54 PM
From: Ian@SI	of 7424

Hi Tuck, 1. I see you caught my disease. ...the stock had been whacked recently on loosing* some sort of ground to Insmed...* Thank god that a well educated, literate sort can also suffer a momentary lapse. 2. I know of at least one other trade of yours that's going well so far. Yes, the NKTR play caught me by surprise. I really wasn't expecting much to happen before the end of July. It does make me wonder if I should just take the offering and hope to get it again prior to month end??? I haven't any clue whether the last couple days is the start of something serious; or, if it was just some technical Month/Quarter/Half move.

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (2548)	7/1/2006 9:44:58 PM
From: Robohogs	of 7424

I feel like an idiot myself - took losses in DOVP/NBIX complex, did not sell the expensive calls in SEPR to cover and only picked up small trading stakes in NKTR/ARNA. ARNA is up as much as NKTR after being down 8% right before FED moved - had thought about adding more but could not do so when Rick was ranting about the shorts as I was worried about the FED reaction. How stupid can one believe. Nice trades guys! Ian - you are the only other NKTR owner I have seen post. Most are dismissive of them as "me-too" and lifestyle. I personally do not care as I think the valuation disconnect between them and AMLN is too large. Economics an Exubera are not quite as good as Byetta (20% royalty with some mfg costs offsetting vs half of profits) but I think Exubera will be a quicker hitter than many think. Of course, I want to be out when the lung problems start. Jon

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To: Robohogs who wrote (2549)	7/1/2006 10:00:52 PM
From: Ian@SI	of 7424

As Tuck said, IF pt compliance improves with Exubera, then it will be prescribed. I don't understand the needle phobia thing, but then again, I don't stick myself multiple times a day.

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