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   Strategies & Market Trends2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum


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To: maceng2 who wrote (197576)3/22/2023 5:44:50 AM
From: TobagoJack
2 Recommendations   of 206943
 
Sauerbraten revolution

zerohedge.com

European Spring? Germany Braces For Major Strikes While France Burns


The "winter of discontent" that has been sweeping across Europe has now escalated into a "spring of discontent," with strikes and protests set to spread from France, Greece, and other surrounding countries to Germany.

According to Reuters, Germany's Verdi union and the railway and transport union EVG are preparing to unleash paralyzing strikes on the country's airports and railways next Monday.

Verdi is negotiating for 2.5 million public sector workers, including ones at airports and other public transport hubs. The union has demanded higher wages due to persistent inflation pressures. EVG is negotiating for 230,000 employees at railway company Deutsche Bahn and bus companies.

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Meanwhile, a recession looms for Europe's largest economy, which finds itself in the midst of an inflationary crisis. After experiencing a 0.4% GDP contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022, it's anticipated that the economy will once again contract in the first quarter.

"German economic activity will probably fall again in the current quarter," the Bundesbank said. "However, the decline is likely to be less than in the final quarter of 2022."

Two consecutive quarters of negative growth indicate recession and come as inflation weighs heavily on consumption. The combination of the two crushes living standards and is sparking a wave of discontent.

While Germany braces for strikes and protests next week, France, Europe's third-largest economy, is already burning as President Emmanuel Macron rammed through unpopular pension reform.

With growing instability in Western nations and the threat of a broadening banking crisis, the primary concern is whether NATO is adequately equipped to handle future conflicts.

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To: maceng2 who wrote (197576)3/22/2023 5:47:21 AM
From: TobagoJack
1 Recommendation   of 206943
 
champagne revolt

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To: maceng2 who wrote (197576)3/22/2023 5:50:56 AM
From: TobagoJack
1 Recommendation   of 206943
 
well made but highly disturbing movie
nothing remotely like Wooster & Jeeves

1943, the Great Patriotic War, territory of Belarus. The 16-year-old boy Flera, having dug out a carbine among scraps of barbed wire, rusty machine-gun belts and shot-through helmets, goes into the forest to join the ranks of the partisans.
This film, like no other, shows the tragedy of a child on a battlefield. At the beginning of the picture Flera is just a teenager. But In the end, having gone through horror and fear, child becomes an adult, frighteningly adult - his face is distorted by senile wrinkles, and there is no room for love in his soul...

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To: marcher who wrote (197552)3/22/2023 6:37:22 AM
From: TobagoJack
   of 206943
 
let's see if Turkey gets flipped

I am naturally suspicious of anyone championed by suspect Bloomberg, especially if such attended or worked at certain schools, and particularly if they cry on TV.

But, as in however, I keep open mind, and agnostic

I assume Erdogan knows what he is doing, that his literal survival might be on the line

bloomberg.com

A Wharton Professor Pledges Revolution in Turkish Economy After Elections

Bilge Yilmaz is likely to become economy czar if Erdogan loses Finance professor vows revamp of policy and more transparency

Onur Ant
22 March 2023 at 18:00 GMT+8



Bilge YilmazPhotographer: Kerim Arslan

As a Turkish opposition alliance tries to mastermind a victory at the polls against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a small coterie of economic advisers is hatching plans for what happens next.

Among them, Bilge Yilmaz may get the biggest say.

A likely pick for the job of Turkey’s economy czar if the ballot breaks the opposition’s way, the finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School oversees economic policies for the second-largest party in the bloc assembled to face down Erdogan in May elections.

Read more: Why Turkey’s Next Election Is a Real Test for Erdogan

Though he’s dabbled in politics before, Yilmaz took on the role at the Iyi party just over a year ago, after coming back to Turkey during the pandemic and traveling the country with his son. It was a trip he’s said opened his eyes to the poverty and punishing living costs faced by many people.

“The current system is unsustainable,” he said in a rare interview with foreign press. “They’ll hardly manage it until the elections.”

Speaking at his unassuming office in the capital Ankara, Yilmaz, 55, held court on how he’d go about dismantling Erdogan’s programs should the president suffer repudiation by voters.

Yilmaz promises nothing short of a revolution in undoing policies blamed for the worst inflation crisis in decades, even as his talking points don’t stray far from textbook prescriptions for how to fix what ails Turkey — from rebuilding international reserves and a new commitment to inflation targeting to overhauling and recapitalizing state lenders.

People First

But it’s a vision that starts with getting “the right personnel” to take charge of key institutions, from the central bank and the Treasury to the banking watchdog, he said.

Insisting he’s “not a daydreamer” in thinking it will be easy to achieve economic stability, Yilmaz warned the Erdogan government’s near-daily tinkering with rules and regulations leaves Turkey at risk of “being dragged into chaos” and facing the possibility of a balance-of-payments crisis.

“We are going to have to pay for the wrong staffing of the past 20 years,” he said.

In his quest to shape the economy to his liking, Erdogan has ousted three central bank governors between 2019 and 2021, largely in the service of unconventional economic ideas and with frequent forays into conspiracy-mongering that invoked an “interest-rate lobby” he’s accused to trying to undermine Turkey.

More recently, Erdogan’s choice often fell on those with family ties or others that came to prominence for their political or religious views. At the helm of Turkey’s central bank is now a man best known previously as a columnist at a pro-government newspaper.

At a time of a makeover at home that sidelined much of the technocrat elite under Erdogan, a generation of Turkish economists came of age that found renown abroad and includes the likes of MIT’s Daron Acemoglu, a likely future Nobel Prize winner.

Yilmaz himself is a case in point. Born in the north-western city of Balikesir, he graduated from the top Turkish university with a degree in electrical engineering and physics and then earned a PhD in economics from Princeton.

Following a short stint at Stanford, he’s spent a quarter of a century at Wharton focusing on subjects ranging from corporate finance to game theory.

Choking Up

Yilmaz makes no secret that the subject of Turkey’s brain drain is close to his heart, even tearing up when talking about it on television last year. Renewal hinges on building a “coherent team,” he said. “We will repatriate those who left the country,” he said.

Yilmaz’s views would resonate with a market that expects a sharp reversal of Erdogan’s policies if he were to lose at the ballot box and already positioning for the chance that the president’s rein over the $900 billion economy might be nearing an end.



With just over a month left before the elections, however, the opposition faces a hard slog ahead. Polls predict a neck-to-neck race.

The drama around the vote is only adding urgency for Yilmaz to focus on an approach he believes will allow international capital to flow back into Turkish assets and eventually prompt enough foreign direct investment to help finance Turkey’s yawning current-account deficit.

What’s Next

Dire as the situation has become for the economy, he isn’t calling for shock therapy and doesn’t think Turkey will need to turn to the International Monetary Fund for assistance. Some of the unorthodox measures implemented under Erdogan, such as currency-protected deposits that stabilized the lira, will be unwound only gradually, he said.

Though planning to turn “immediately” to inflation targeting, he envisages a “transition” over three-month periods since the central bank’s 5% goal has become unrealistic. Price growth shot past 85% late last year in Turkey, which hasn’t met its inflation target for over a decade.

“Once those ‘predictable’ targets are realized, people’s confidence in the bank will increase,” Yilmaz said.

Other priorities for him will include fiscal discipline and reforms in banking, industry and agriculture. Yilmaz wants to devise a set of incentives that would, for example, reward farmers by encouraging them to favor certain crops and plant them in preferred areas.

“We want to ensure trust and transparency,” he said. “Everything will be open to audit.”

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To: sense who wrote (197568)3/22/2023 6:37:46 AM
From: Rarebird
   of 206943
 
<<"free markets" consist of removing government from the field so that capitalists can compete freely, without any restriction..>>

Government, as run by many Democrats, represents a check on capitalism. And capitalism does need to be checked somewhat; for otherwise you end up with massive income inequality and culture wars, the exact situation which the USA finds itself in today.

Capitalism is not the end all and be all. It has its good points and bad points, if left unfettered.

No one really knows what the founding fathers would have to say about free enterprise if they lived in 2023 rather than
1776.

Capitalism is good for capitalists. It is not good for many others. That is where government regulation comes into play. And I am strong proponent of checks and balances, not only among the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government, but among government itself and the system of capitalism.

The primary concern of capitalists is to maximize profit. Sure, some do give back quite a bit, like the Rockerfellas, Gates, Soros, etc. But most capitalists could not give two chits about their fellow man. Other people become mostly a means to an end, not an end in itself. I come from a whole family tradition of capitalists so I know. Above all, I am a bit of a capitalist myself, more than I am willing to admit.

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (197578)3/22/2023 9:50:45 AM
From: TobagoJack
   of 206943
 
Irrespective of politics this here is funny
As political temperature rises
And no, am neither for nor against any USA politician as strictly a domestic affair
But funny is funny

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (197579)3/22/2023 10:00:04 AM
From: marcher
1 Recommendation   of 206943
 
i know that is fake-food...
cuz the local diner doesn't have any of it.

:0)

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To: carranza2 who wrote (197564)3/22/2023 10:03:49 AM
From: TobagoJack
   of 206943
 
I wonder what would happen should all institutions go for 6% gold backing?

kitco.com

6% allocation to gold: How Société Générale is positioning its portfolio for a potential recession



( Kitco News) - Gold continues to play an essential role in a diversified portfolio, with Société Générale saying it is maintaining a 6% allocation to the precious metal in its latest multi-asset Portfolio strategy.

After having their faith tested through December and January, the French bank said it is holding to its risk-off defensive positioning. The analysts noted growing recession threats and said the destination is more important than the journey or short-term market volatility.

The analysts said they see the U.S. falling into a recession by early 2024.

"With the first clear signs of cracks (systemic risk) and a U.S. recession now part of the 12-month investment horizon, we certainly do not wish to raise our risk profile at this juncture," the analysts said in the report.

Looking at how SocGen is preparing for an economic slowdown, the most significant shift in its portfolio is a 10% allocation to cash, up from no allocation in December. Digging deeper into its cash holdings, the bank said that diversification will be critical. The bank’s biggest currency position is in euros, presenting 43% of its holdings; at the same time, its dollar exposure represents about 29%. The bank holds 9% of its cash in Japanese yen and 2% in Chinese yuan and finally, emerging market currencies represent about 17% of its cash position.

"Cash is becoming a compelling alternative to fixed income amid uncertainty around duration and default risk," the analysts said. "We suspect USD strength has peaked and that the equilibrium will be increasingly in favor of the euro due to a time lag between the Fed and the ECB rate-hiking cycle, with the former peaking much earlier than the latter."

At the same time, SocGen said that the global dedollarization trend continues to gain momentum. They said they expect central banks to continue to buy gold to diversify their holdings, even if the pace slows from the last year's record.

"The longer the Russia-Ukraine conflict endures, the faster countries not aligned with the west will be willing to isolate themselves from the USD. This will encourage central banks to continue their strong gold purchases. This is a long-term bullish driver for gold that is already supporting prices," the analysts said.

The analysts added that gold should also continue to benefit from lower bond yields as they expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by the end of the year or early 2024.

Gold has seen a resurgence of safe-haven demand in the last two weeks as a global banking crisis has roiled financial markets. Monday, gold prices briefly pushed to a 12-month high above $2,000 an ounce.

In a separate report, commodity analysts at SocGen see gold prices retesting 2020 highs an ounce later this year, even if prices see a correction in the near term.

"Gold is expected to head gradually towards the upper part of its range since 2020 at $2,055/$2,075. This is a key resistance zone; overcoming it could mean the onset of a larger uptrend," the analysts said in the report.

SocGen continues to hold 6% of its portfolio in gold. At the same time, it has increased its broad commodity exposure by 5%, representing 11% of total exposure.



U.K. authorities seize nearly $5 million in gold bullion from South American drug cartel

The analysts said that a generally weak U.S. dollar should continue to support the broader commodity index. The analysts also noted that the worldwide green energy transition will drive long-term commodity prices.

"Greenflation is the inflation created when prices rise due to increased demand for (or reduced supply of) critical commodities that are needed to make the world sustainable and greener," the analysts said. "More than 20 different metals are critical for the clean energy transition, and cumulative demand for copper and nickel will have to more than double and quadruple, respectively, over the next 30 years to achieve the Paris Agreement…"

In broader financial markets, SocGen is slightly increasing its exposure in equities, raising it to 35% of its portfolio, up from 33% in December. In line with its weak U.S. dollar outlook, the bank has increased its exposure to European equities and lowered its exposure to U.S. stocks. Specifically, the bank recommends investors stay away from U.S. banks as the sector sees its worst crisis since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

"For equity investors, the most important thing to remember is that US stocks do not bottom until a recession has started and that the Fed rate cutting cycle is needed to see a restart of the secular bull market. We think that both a US recession and a rate-cut cycle will start next year," the analysts said.

SocGen has is also implementing a broad-based decline in bond exposure. The bank is looking to hold 29% of its portfolio in government bonds and 15% in corporate bonds, down from 33% and 25%, respectively.

"When we look at the fixed-income assets, we note that the volatility is very high. There is a lot of uncertainty on whether current government bond yields are sufficient for the duration risk. There is also a great deal of uncertainty around the trajectory of the global economy and hence whether the current yields offered by corporate bonds are high enough to be attractive. On the other hand, cash (overnight deposit rates) is free from duration risk and default risk," the analysts said.

Sent from my iPhone

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To: marcher who wrote (197589)3/22/2023 10:06:09 AM
From: TobagoJack
1 Recommendation   of 206943
 
I wonder what, if anything, the ruskies think of impossible-burger and unreal-butter :0))))))

Never mind the unfamiliar use of legacy pronouns

I can take a guess at what the CPC China China China thinks of the entire matter, “good for them”

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (197586)3/22/2023 10:16:14 AM
From: marcher
   of 206943
 
--Turkey gets flipped--

the u.s. specializes in turkeys...
and being one appears to be an 'american' trait...
so, us has lots of knowledge and 'lived experience' when dealing with turkey.
for example, here's one american strategy:

youtube.com

though lots of folk seem to burn down their own house when so doing.
toss caution to the wind,
disruption,
disaster capitalism,
opportunism,
etc.....
youtu.be
-?-

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