| To: sense who wrote (281466) | 11/12/2020 7:21:56 PM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | Remember...Coherent thoughts and conversation...avoid presuming and just dumping random thoughts in the editor...I am not in your head to know what you base your assumptions on.
And no - I never said that I made a bet on elections. Nor did I offer to make any bets on this election.
But I did say that I am willing to enter a bet with you if you can articulate what benefits you think America will/has get/gotten from Trump and show a concrete unbiased way of measure the alleged benefits. |
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| To: sense who wrote (281466) | 11/12/2020 7:24:01 PM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | | BTW, why is it that Trump gets to scheme most of the money he collects under the guise of legal defense fund? Seems like his latest scam...which is not surprising. |
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| To: Sun Tzu who wrote (281465) | 11/15/2020 4:22:43 AM | | From: Arran Yuan | | | | Thank you very much for a thoroughly thought out reply!
I give it a better than even chance that the US will eventually go back to its roots as a union of states with a fairly weak central government...call it Union-Confederate 2.0
Sincerely hope so |
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| To: Arran Yuan who wrote (281469) | 11/15/2020 5:55:26 AM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | FYI, the loss of USD as a reserve currency will be the nail in the coffin of one of the 3 key factors mentioned here: Message 33040075
That is why I was mentioning it. Though I had not read the article, my thoughts were along the same lines. About 15 years ago my friend and I independently estimated the value of reserve currency to be $500B to the government. So its loss will be a major hit to what the government can do.
But even if the USD remains the reserve currency (unlikely) I cannot fathom a situation over the next decade or two in which the government actually balances its budget, let alone pays down the debt. So the restrained government part is pretty guaranteed. |
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| To: Arran Yuan who wrote (281469) | 11/15/2020 6:16:10 AM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | Re: Sincerely hope so
This is the one thing that everyone, whether conservative or liberal, Red State or Blue seems to agree upon. So the party members on both sides should push it as an official platform. |
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| To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (281472) | 11/15/2020 8:04:57 AM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | Lack of alternative is the only reason why the USD has remained the reserve currency for so long. But you must realize that the world is dynamic and that things should offer inherent value rather than rely on lack of alternatives... Having a status due to lack of alternatives is like being a boyfriend/girlfriend until Mr./Ms. Right comes along. It's not a viable long-term relationship.
But since you ask, there are a number reasonable situations that can arise to challenge the USD dominance and its role as the reserve currency. And to be clear, reasonable means that active and substantial progress is being made on these fronts.
The first is replacing the SWIFT Network with a smart contract and/or blockchain based network for clearing international trade.
Another possibility is the Chinese RMB once they open up their bond and currency markets.
A third will be a stable coin based on a basket of currencies and commodities.
I personally think that all 3 will happen. It will start with the first item, the 2nd will be a contributing factor to bring about the 3rd as the final solution. |
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| To: Sun Tzu who wrote (281473) | 11/15/2020 7:33:00 PM | | From: Arran Yuan | | | | | A single currency as the reserve currency is a hegemony like absolute political and/or financial power that is inherently bound to be corrupt. Nature tells us a diverse ecological system tends to be more stable than a singular one. Even the US FRN$ won't hold its single reserve currency status, it should remain to be one of the major currencies of at least 3, such as a combo of US FRN$, RMB Yuan, and something new from Europe(?). |
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