| To: sense who wrote (281462) | 11/11/2020 9:45:05 PM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | I have a pretty good track record on these things. So far I have not lost any bets on SI, including when I made the bet with the neocons on Iraq and how not only it will not be the shining example or even a US ally, but a great point of regret. We put in a time and metric to reassess and they lost but never paid off.
I am going to offer you the same chance. Come up with a concrete list of what you think the Trump presidency has delivered and/or will deliver over the next few years and we will assess it then.
I am personally of the opinion that the US is headed into an abyss. The best case scenario is a series of hapless governments over the next 10 - 20 years. But there is an even greater chance of political instability and riots worse than the '60s. Hopefully the country will re-emerge better than before. But the near and medium term outlook is not bright...and that is irrespective of who is the president or holds the senate. |
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| To: Arran Yuan who wrote (281464) | 11/12/2020 3:31:15 PM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | Actually, I did not talk about the worst case scenario, only the most likely scenarios.
The worst case scenario is that burdened by a mountain of debt, plagued by internal divisions and radically different views of America's place in the world, the USD will lose its status as the world's reserve currency which in turn brings about a ton of financial difficulties for the US government. Combined with pressure towards xenophobia, the US may fracture under the pressure and go through something similar to what the Soviet Union went through and become a mere shadow of its former self...an even bigger worse case scenario involves new cold wars with China and Russia (and possibly hot wars with their proxies) .
I don't think either of these is likely. But nor is it so far out to be brushed aside.
I give it a better than even chance that the US will eventually go back to its roots as a union of states with a fairly weak central government...call it Union-Confederate 2.0 |
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| To: Sun Tzu who wrote (281463) | 11/12/2020 5:22:31 PM | | From: sense | | | | LOL!!!
So, that has you now, already, admitting Biden hasn't won this election ?
I'll declare victory now, thanks.
Will also meet your "concrete" challenge: Trump will expose election fraud and media manipulation.
Will gladly predict... the degree in which that occurs... now as never before... will likely not satisfy me.
I'll stop to note that since "It's over and Biden won... give it up"... Trump has now won North Carolina and Alaska... Georgia is doing a "full hand recount"... with roughly ZERO doubt about the outcome that makes likely, as the ballots will now be looked at, for the first time, and sorted by legitimacy. Arizona ? Pennsylvania.... LOL!!! In that context, go back and watch the still relevant Youtube on the Oct 20 "Trump Remarks at a Rally in Pennsylvania" ? Michigan? Wisconsin ? We've not even seen the outcome in a single court ruling, yet... while the media continue to pretend the reality that exists... is not happening ?
As the PARTISAN media continue lying to YOU (not me)... suppressing your news (not mine)... the tech companies, with your support (not mine), continue violating the free speech rights of your fellow citizens... and while wrongly manipulating your information flows (and mine) mislead and manipulate you (not me)... and continue pretending that they rightfully decide the outcome ?
Identify the errors in play, there... the reasons for them... the fact in reality... and it makes MANY things easily predictable ?
You can't make a call on any of those states I mentioned without discussing the extent, nature, and impact of fraud ? That itself is a personal win, for me, since what I care about most in elections is eliminating the fraud... and the corruption driving it. That won't happen without FULLY exposing it. Apparently on track to delivering "some" of that result, now? Trump being enough of an asshole to not roll over and submit to the media bullying deliberately backing the fraud and depending on it succeeding... drives them nuts... makes him a hero enough for me, on this day... and that... no matter what disagreements I have with him on other policy... requires he's less fundamentally wrong than the Democrats on "things that matter most".
In other posting on SI I've noted you'd not be likely to see the outlines of "strategy" in the current election until this week... and that all seems its becoming obvious enough now ? Can you outline, for me, the two strategies apparent now... Biden's and Trump's... and how they relate to the paths forward and the probable outcomes of the current election? Which strategy appears it better aligns with the nature of reality... and which intrinsically depends on "fooling all of the people, all of the time" ?
But, as you prefer to move the goal posts, instead, and look further out... let's do that too ?
You're obviously unaware of my posting history here on SI... which is not primarily political, but is focused on the markets and investment. If you care, some picks I've highlighted again recently... before the election... are U.S. oil and gas stocks. Relevance ? Democrats not taking the Senate means America remains energy independent, means states continue to control their own energy policies... means Democrats will not be "transitioning off oil" in a corrupt way... that lines their personal pockets at our expense... and it means the >29% yield on some of those U.S. oil and gas related issues when I bought them (some still >20%) look like a win.
I wouldn't think those were reasonable choices to make... if I'd thought that Biden would win, and the Democrats would take the Senate... and move to kill the oil and gas industry ? It was featured as an issue in the last debate... so, no one should have missed the implications ? My pick wasn't a random event ? When others asked about the dependency on the political element... I explained it... and backed the pick ?
Can you show me an election related bet you made recently... that's a $$$ winner now... and seems to be set to sustain its trend into the future... justifying a hold of that pick you made... because of the policy impacts the election just held already makes clearly apparent ?
Otherwise, the election isn't over yet. So, lets find and agree on other situations where the election result will have predictable outcomes in very real terms... so you can bet your money one way, and I can bet mine the other way... and there's not any wiggle room left to quibble about who bet on what, how, or when ?
I don't need to bet with you in hypothetical terms to make my points... since my focus and purpose here is providing a proof in a track record in my calls that you can track yourself... in real $$ terms ? Not doing that for you, either... but for myself, as a constant reality check on my own thinking. I hold myself accountable in those very real terms... all the time. Don't need you for that. If I'm wrong... even if only in timing, in the short term... it means my choices lose money... and If I'm right ? I deliberately put money where my mouth is... or, put my mouth where money is... just not ever in the P-n-D meaning of that... I'm also not unaware and thus stupid about it ? Providing that transparency (on some easily manipulated picks) might enable others in hurting me financially ? LOL! Been around this block a few times... know how the world works... so don't bother with that. I'm not pretending to be fully transparent... but what I predict is here for you to see.
A fun aside in current context... we could discuss "green energy" and "global warming" and "carbon credit trading" in context of physical reality, manipulation of opinion, and the reality in it all being about $$$ and corruption... and nothing else. For context... I ran a small nano tech company doing green energy research... that succeeded wildly in the lab... we were making super efficient devices pre-2000... and now, because of corruption enabled by frauds, I won't publish my work. The tech will succeed in good time... when it makes economic sense... but, for now, its ONLY about politics fostering corruption for money, which is actually OBSTRUCTING technical progress, preventing innovators from succeeding to favor the most corrupt instead. That is not remotely close to being about free markets and innovation delivering more economic solutions... that are cleaner and less conflicted ?
Politics is corrupt. Wall Street is corrupt. Breaking news ?
So, yeah, back in the day... an easy call to make on Obama and "green tech" stocks and corruption... including both the initial pop in the shares, in the up sense that I called then, and the same in the pop, later, in terms exposing Obama's $500 million Solyndra fraud. Some of this is just so obvious you'd have to be blind to miss it... which works... since most people are unwilling to see it until forced... and then still deny its obvious meaning.
FWIW, I picked Obama to beat Hillary AND win the Presidency... when ALL of my Democrat friends called me nuts because it was so obvious Hillary had already won... the nomination ? Anyway...
Can you explain for me... why all the polls were SO wrong in 2016... and why they were even MORE wrong in the 2020 election ? Polling isn't rocket science ? It's basically not possible to be THAT wrong... without TRYING to be that wrong ? So, why is that what you see ? What impact does it have ?
Why would you believe those same people, who were that wrong... about the outcome of the election now ?
If you're still fully on board with thinking what you were just two weeks ago... its not too late... go ahead... bet on Biden... and short the U.S. oil stocks ? Let me know what picks you make... what you expect in their performance over time ? And, then, lets track the results over time ? Will they all go away as we transition to green energy... making corrupt Democrats rich... or as we return to dependence on foreign oil suppliers... making corrupt Democrats rich ? Or... not ?
Perhaps you sense a theme, here... that most people are unwilling to see until forced... and then still deny in its obvious meaning ? Can you show me Trump's corrupt parallel... in using the Presidency to make Don Jr rich while selling out the country... in the way that is exposed as FACT now, in the Biden's pay-to-play scandal involving Russia, Ukraine, China... and ??? <queue crickets chirping>
Trump worse than Biden ? Show me.
That all as intro to note: My record here hasn't had me forecasting an imminent golden age dominated by rainbows and unicorns ? I fully realize how dark the future has to be when it is dominated by the brand of corruption that still controls everything now ? The most rational choice... is to both resist it and NOT feed the beast... as you are doing, and I will not... which still isn't a guarantee that you won't be eaten by it ?
The political interface with reality... does little to alter the legacies we're left with as a consequence in reality of our prior choices. What it does enable, is a recognition that we do have choices, and the choices do matter. But, choices you must make... aren't close to a guarantee the choices will be painless ?
If you think there''s an issue with an abyss just ahead... tell me how, when and why we enter the abyss... what we do about it while we're in it... what it means "to be in the abyss" in practical terms... then how, why and when we might get out of it... what consequences attend... and what the world looks like on the other side ? Not sufficient to describe what it looks like "to us" without considering the variable and disparate impacts on the rest of the world... and how our experience likely varies from most others ?
Everyone (not in politics... where the near future and the value of our near term choices is a mostly forbidden subject) is talking about The Great Reset... without ever discussing WHAT THAT MEANS... in the plans others have already made for you... and how what it means varies depending on WHICH VERSION of "a reset" we're likely to be subjected to... ?
Which version of a "reset" is it that you voted to get in the recent election ?
In that context... re-watch that Trump rally in Pennsylvania on Oct 20 ? Is it relevant ?
So, that's a simpler challenge for you...
What "reset" options are we faced with ? What are the "team interests" in the various options that exist ?
What variables might control the choices that get made ?
Note... other than having a bit of fun with you on stock picks... I'm not really asking you to make a prediction about ANY outcomes ? I'm only asking you to outline the different choices that do exist... and the likely impacts of making one choice versus another... or one set of choices versus another ?
Is it a choice between free markets... and communism ? Which would you choose ?
Is it a choice between different brands of socialism ? Which would you choose ?
Is it a choice between sovereign nation states or an EU style global domination by un-elected elites ?
Which would you choose ?
Is it a choice between the existing world order, based on adherence to agreements and the rule of law, or some new world order that no one will define for us in its fundamentals, or in the implication of the change intended ? Which would you choose ?
Can you predict an outcome... without even knowing the game, what's in play, and the teams playing ?
What does game theory add to your consideration then ?
Most of that I'm asking you for... is fairly linear stuff... talking about money and economics... trade... while ignoring the fundamentally political nature that is an inherent element in our choices, in our world view ? What are the implications and the probabilities in what those choices might deliver in changes, and in what the dynamic in change could mean to us in terms of how the choices and dynamics define what life will be like on the other side ?
Sort through what the options are... in practical terms... and THEN consider the political implications ?
Given different forms of conflict... what are the thresholds between them ?
How can you tell what limits will apply ?
Only once you have the big picture... should you begin to address the nature of the conflicts that will tend to control the choices made... while making a stab at a prediction ? I was going to suggest a particular football game next weekend might provide a proper point of reference in considering some of that. But, holy crap... look how many are being postponed ?
saturdaydownsouth.com
Harder to pick winners... when you don't even know the game being played ?
And, then, it isn't enough to address what your own choices or preferences are ? You also have to address others choices, and the probabilities in outcomes given conflicts between competing ideas ? How do you decide what's likely to control the outcome... no matter what it is you prefer in an outcome ?
And only then... with that well and fully considered... is it rational to make any predictions about the likely impacts of choices ?
Won't surprise you to hear that I'll tend to consider the issues in relation to self delusion or the frauds being practiced... noting the attendant corruption... as often being determinative. How we address those problems... or not... is a subject of politics... but it also dictates the outcome in conflict ?
That's because "fraud" is mostly a form of self delusion and a source of weakness... which is not necessarily true individually... but is always true in its acceptance in the aggregate.
Turns out... corrupt people can't be trusted ? LOL!!! How many are there ? How corrupt are they ? What does the distribtion plot look like ?
Why did the media think censoring conservatives speech... would control the outcome of the election ?
Or, were they trying to ensure a Trump win ?
What is the benefit of believing your own propaganda ?
So, go ahead... make a few predictions that give me your best defense of corruption and fraud engaged in advancing your cause... and show us where it leads... in this election... and in the larger scheme of things in the world ?
Is "the Abyss"... just a threat ? Can it be avoided... if only you agree to submit to others corruption ? |
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| To: sense who wrote (281466) | 11/12/2020 7:21:56 PM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | Remember...Coherent thoughts and conversation...avoid presuming and just dumping random thoughts in the editor...I am not in your head to know what you base your assumptions on.
And no - I never said that I made a bet on elections. Nor did I offer to make any bets on this election.
But I did say that I am willing to enter a bet with you if you can articulate what benefits you think America will/has get/gotten from Trump and show a concrete unbiased way of measure the alleged benefits. |
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| To: sense who wrote (281466) | 11/12/2020 7:24:01 PM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | | BTW, why is it that Trump gets to scheme most of the money he collects under the guise of legal defense fund? Seems like his latest scam...which is not surprising. |
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| To: Sun Tzu who wrote (281465) | 11/15/2020 4:22:43 AM | | From: Arran Yuan | | | | Thank you very much for a thoroughly thought out reply!
I give it a better than even chance that the US will eventually go back to its roots as a union of states with a fairly weak central government...call it Union-Confederate 2.0
Sincerely hope so |
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| To: Arran Yuan who wrote (281469) | 11/15/2020 5:55:26 AM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | FYI, the loss of USD as a reserve currency will be the nail in the coffin of one of the 3 key factors mentioned here: Message 33040075
That is why I was mentioning it. Though I had not read the article, my thoughts were along the same lines. About 15 years ago my friend and I independently estimated the value of reserve currency to be $500B to the government. So its loss will be a major hit to what the government can do.
But even if the USD remains the reserve currency (unlikely) I cannot fathom a situation over the next decade or two in which the government actually balances its budget, let alone pays down the debt. So the restrained government part is pretty guaranteed. |
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| To: Arran Yuan who wrote (281469) | 11/15/2020 6:16:10 AM | | From: Sun Tzu | | | | Re: Sincerely hope so
This is the one thing that everyone, whether conservative or liberal, Red State or Blue seems to agree upon. So the party members on both sides should push it as an official platform. |
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