| To: stockman_scott who wrote (150956) | 11/3/2004 9:43:39 PM | | From: Ish | | | | <<There are at least four titanic "reality-based" problems that this "faith-based" President now confronts.>>
The election is over. He picks his problems now. |
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| To: TigerPaw who wrote (150186) | 11/3/2004 10:09:23 PM | | From: Bilow | | | | Hi Tigerpaw; Re: "The media polls have a bias toward the appearance of a close race. This keeps more viewers tuned in. Kerry has been ahead for weeks, but the polls have used a skewed ratio of Republican/Democrat percentages to weight their poll. They didn't want the race to appear to be a blowout or people wouldn't watch their TV all day. ..."
I heard the same thing, or variations, from a lot of liberal friends. Like I've said before, people believe pretty much what they want to believe. They can explain away huge amounts of evidence to the contrary.
It was this same very human deficit that explains why Bush went into Iraq in the first place.
-- Carl |
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| To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (150294) | 11/3/2004 10:23:13 PM | | From: Bilow | | | | Hi Jim Willie CB; Re: "... 3% margin of error individually means 4.24% margin of error for the difference ..."
This simply isn't true. You're failing to take into account the obvious fact that among any individual who happens to be in your poll, there is a nearly perfect inverse correlation between votes for Kerry and votes for Bush. Consequently, you can't add percentages with the square root scaling law that applies to differences of independent random variables.
In other words, the sample sets for the two measurements, the Bush vote and the difference vote, are not independent measurements. They are almost perfectly correlated.
Neocon, miraculously, is correct despite his not having studied statistics. If there is a 3% margin of error on the vote for Bush, and the vote is approximately 50% each, then there will be a 6% margin of error in the vote difference between Bush and Kerry.
Hey, you could use the 4.24% figure if you were using different sample sets for the two measurements, but you're not.
-- Carl
P.S. I did study statistics, among other things. |
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| To: Ish who wrote (150969) | 11/3/2004 10:26:28 PM | | From: Michael Watkins | | | | So you get attacked with no chance to respond? Sounds dumb to me.
You've got to be kidding... you consider anything he writes an "attack"?
Its purely grade school stuff, and simply not worth the time reading much less responding. |
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| To: FaultLine who wrote (150941) | 11/3/2004 10:46:48 PM | | From: unclewest | | | | Hi FL,
Thank God we will not have an American Commander-in-Chief whose picture hangs on the wall of heroes in a North Vietnamese museum.
Months ago, I declared this election will be about honor and integrity and it was imo. I still have one secret wish and that is that the truth about Kerry’s undesirable discharge becomes widely known. The Swiftees already told us everything else we needed to know about Kerry. Releasing Kerry’s discharge details will help the Democrats understand why he lost.
We need for the Democrats to understand, because America needs the Democrats. And America needs for the Democrats to be strong to keep the two-party system healthy and functioning.
I believe the Vietnam war finally ended on Nov 2, 2004.
FL, we have had our differences. Nevertheless, I thank you for your war service and I thank you for voting. I respect your willingness to fight now for our democratic process.
God really has Blessed America!
Welcome Home,
unclewest
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