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   PoliticsForeign Affairs Discussion Group


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To: Neocon who wrote (150855)11/3/2004 11:59:39 AM
From: Michael Watkins
   of 281500
 
Today of all days

Why not?

The issues I've raised have nothing to do with whether Bush won or lost. They are still all relevant -- in fact more so now than ever.

If you think I was digging up this dirt merely because of an election, you'd be fully and completely mistaken.

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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (150826)11/3/2004 12:03:53 PM
From: Sun Tzu
   of 281500
 
Long ago I saw a cartoon of a reporter asking a beer guzling slob, "What do you think is the cause of voter apathy?" to which he answers, "I don't know and I don't care".

I am quite seriously creating a plan B to "diversify" my future from solely depending on a prosperous America.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (150856)11/3/2004 12:10:28 PM
From: Michael Watkins
   of 281500
 
I predict that by 2008 we will be sitting on a massive debt and an all time low USD

The all time low USD will happen much faster than that...

Given the current account deficit and its rate of change, sooner, than later.

It would not surprise me to see a sudden dislocation of some sort shake up world currency markets, only this time, its going to be the US that is in the news, not a back water state, not some place like Russia or Argentina.

Euro against USD is mere cents from its all time high here....

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To: Sam who wrote (150849)11/3/2004 12:18:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins
   of 281500
 
"Personally, as the father of four children, as a young man, as a working Hungarian who trusts in the future, and as head of government, I believe not in preventive war but in policies which prevent conflicts," Gyurcsany said at the time.

How refreshing.

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To: Sam who wrote (150850)11/3/2004 12:21:27 PM
From: michael97123
   of 281500
 
i am a kidder

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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (150859)11/3/2004 12:28:25 PM
From: Sun Tzu
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>> The all time low USD will happen much faster than that...

Yes. Markets are discounting mechanisms. The real problem is that at some point, the falling dollar will have a very diverse effect on foreign debt market for USD. That this has not happened in full force yet is to a good measure because foreigners are afraid that liquidating their positions will push the dollar lower and cost them even more.

BTW, I saw a Soros interview a couple of years ago when most people thought USD has gone low enough. He said he thinks the descent will continue for a few more years. That prediction was on the money. I wonder what he has to say now.

For those who care to dig more...

quotes.ino.com:801/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmax
finance.yahoo.com
finance.yahoo.com

Too bad I can't find longer term charts. Btw, while you are at it, feel free to check the demgraphic trends.

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To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (146211)11/3/2004 12:30:14 PM
From: Neeka
   of 281500
 
You're Delusional To The Extreme.


Back atcha'.

LOL

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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (150852)11/3/2004 12:30:40 PM
From: michael97123
   of 281500
 
A couple of political comments.
1. Think that this election was a modern version of 1948. Polling blew it then big time but the vote count of mostly paper ballots was far slower and it too until morning for the unpopular President Truman to defeat the effete Tom Dewey.
2. My first election i remember was 1960. I remember cronkite and huntly/brinkley. When they called a state, it stayed call. In all subsequent elections with the exception of florida last time polls have been accurate. Early polling showed kerry wildly ahead. Personally i think there will be an investigation. I think the exit polls were rigged. They assumed 60/40 women to men among other obvious flaws. It might have the medias last best effort to elect kerry, something they have been trying to do since the election began.
3. Enter dan rather and cbs. They were making great calls before all the other network until it became obvious that ohio would give kerry the election. Then dan spent hours talking to ed bradley and bob shieffer on how kerry was still in it. Never did he mention or even care about the popular vote.
4. Get rid of the electrical college--the third rail of american politics. One man one vote. The end.
5. Forbid the release of exit polls before the polls close. News people and pols cant be trusted to keep this quiet. I saw Ted Kennedy on Wolf Blitzer at about 8pm. He looked and sounded like the election was won. Wolf had to admonish him that viewers were watching and they had a secret to keep.
6. Jeff Greenfield and Larry Sabatow are the only talking heads worth listnening too. They are honest and accurate. Greenfield said last night to wait for the investigation of the exit polling firm. Sabatow recommended that the networks withhold payment of their bill.

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To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (146211)11/3/2004 12:34:28 PM
From: michael97123
   of 281500
 
"This wimpy little cheerleading horn blowing cat calling back stabbing daddy sucking soprano impersonating ultra greedy self serving Cat Stevens Banning Homo Hating Jew Baiting Freak Show is about to see its final curtain."

Go screw yourself.

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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (150862)11/3/2004 12:35:30 PM
From: Michael Watkins
   of 281500
 
The real problem is that at some point, the falling dollar will have a very diverse effect on foreign debt market for USD. That this has not happened in full force yet is to a good measure because foreigners are afraid that liquidating their positions will push the dollar lower and cost them even more.

Absolutely. With over 1/2 of US govt debt held by foreign states - an amount measured in trillions - not to mention other foreign investment, there is a natural break on withdrawal. Finding buyers for all that debt is a problem. Mind you, when there are no buyers, that's when crashes occur.

When Bush surprises with ever larger debt offerings to pay for Iraq (and any other foreign adventures), we'll get a first clue as to how bad things are.

EUR against USD:
trendvue.com

That's a trend, and old resistance turned into new support over the past two years.

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