| From: Keith Feral | 11/2/2004 11:08:05 PM | | | | | | It is great sport to see the way the press is trying to make this election look close. With 91% of the exit polls in FL complete, they will not release the electoral votes despite a 53 to 47% margin. The same is true with Ohio.
Converseley, they release the California electoral votes within 5 minutes of the polls closing. Gimme a break. There are more than enough electoral votes to declare Bush the winner at this hour. It is total pollsmanship by CNN to make the raced look neck in neck by releasing 55 California EV's based on only 100K votes when Bush has a 5 point lead with 92% of the exit polls complete, with votes totalling over 5 million. |
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| To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (150725) | 11/2/2004 11:09:12 PM | | From: Michael Watkins | | | | I don't happen to agree with MEMRI. Taking Al Jazeera's translation at face value, since I've no reason not to, and prior translations done by CNN in real time as the tape was aired - which also happen to agree with Al Jazeera, *and* factoring in the reference to Sweden, it seems more likely that OBL is refering to nation-states.
If I'm wrong, then all US states are under threat, since OBL said clearly "Kerry nor Bush" can protect you. If he was hoping for a Nader win, in any state let alone the country, then he really is insane and somehow I don't believe that. |
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| To: Michael Watkins who wrote (150739) | 11/2/2004 11:16:08 PM | | From: Nadine Carroll | | | | Here is some linguistic backup from an Israeli professor, via Tal at Jerusalem blog, which explains MEMRI's translation:
I emailed Pajamahadeen Arabic language expert "Ribbity Frog" for his opinion on the interpretation of the Osama video and whether it threatens states that vote for Bush. He responds:
What can I tell you? Even a piss-pot state like Palestine is referred to as "dawlat falestiin" "The State of Palestine". "wilaaya" in the singular is used for a local state, as far as I know. Certainly, Arafat would never refer to it as "wilayat falestiin", particularly since it has the overtones of a local autonomous district subject to a greater empire, and would I think imply a degree of subordination to a greater body. My Arabic dictionary defines it as
"sovereign power, sovereignty; rule, government. administrative distrcit
headed by a vali, vilayet (formerly under the Ottonman Empire); provence (= division of a country, e.g. Tunisia, Algeria); sovereign state (in a federal
union)." etc.
Slipping back into a more demure academic posture, he adds:
The United States is called in Arabic alwilayaat almuttaHida - wilayaat is plural of wilaya, state (the -aat ending is like feminine plural -ot in Hebrew) and muttaHida means united, from root waHad, 'one' (= Hebrew
me'uHadot).
The Arabic "ayy-" is etymologically equivalent to the element "ey-" in Hebrew words such as "eyfo", "eyzo", "eylu" or Biblical "ayyekka" where are you. etc. It means "which", "whatever". Hence "ey + po" (which+here > where), "ey + ze" (which+this > which one).
ayy in Arabic can which which or whatever, hence any or every. ayy wilaaya means "any state" (eyze medina) or "whichever state". The Slate notes the inconsistency in the English translation, but there isn't such a difference really. (Whichsoever state).
I hope this helps.
talg.blogspot.com |
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| To: Keith Feral who wrote (150734) | 11/2/2004 11:17:11 PM | | From: Michael Watkins | | | | It seems a little early to count chickens, doesn't it? After all it seems that the Democrats won what they won in 2000, as did the Republicans.
The toss ups still being Ohio and Florida, with votes still being placed apparently in at least one of the two, and counting still far from over. |
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| To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (150740) | 11/2/2004 11:22:35 PM | | From: Michael Watkins | | | | I continue to lean to Sweden as the differentiator, but I am no expert.
Any Arabic language speakers on the thread? Join in...
In the meantime, you might give this a read:
juancole.com
MEMRI is claiming that the word used for "state" in this sentence means state as in Rhode Island and New Jersey.
But while they are right to draw attention to the oddness of the diction, their conclusion is impossible.
Bin Laden says that such a "state" should not trifle with Muslims' security. He cannot possibly mean that he thinks Rhode Island is in a position to do so. Nor can he be referring to which way a state votes, since he begins by saying that the security of Americans is not in the hands of Bush or Kerry. He has already dismissed them as equivalent and irrelevant, in and of themselves.
Moreover, the way he uses "wilayah" is strange if he meant a Rhode Island kind of state. He should have said "ayy wilayah min al-wilayaat," "any state among the states" or some such diction.
Since MEMRI's conclusion is impossible given what else Bin Laden says, then we must revisit their philological point. It is true that in modern standard Arabic, wilayah means "state" or "province" and that al-Wilayaat al-Muttahaddah is the phrase used to translate "United States." A state in the sense of government or international Power would more likely nowadays be "dawlah" or "hukumah."
But there are two possible explanations for Bin Laden's diction here. The first is that he regularly uses archaicisms. He has steeped himself in ancient, Koranic Arabic and the sayings of the Prophet, and he and his fellow cultists in Qandahar had developed a peculiar subculture that rejected much of modernity. The Taliban state characterized itself as an Emirate (imarah) ruled by an Amir in the sense of a caliph or Amir al-Mu'minin ("Commander of the Faithful"). In the contemporary Gulf, in contrast, an "amir" is a prince. The amir (emir) of Kuwait is not claiming to be a caliph! Bin Laden and Mulla Omar went back to the classical meaning of amir.
In classical Arabic, a ruler is a wali, who then rules over a wilayah or walayah. Wilayah can have connotations even in modern Arabic (see Hans Wehr) of sovereignty and it can mean "government." Bin Laden is attempting to revive ways of thinking he maintains were common among the first generation of Muslims, and to slough off centuries of accretions.
So the first possibility is simply that Bin Laden is using a fundamentalist archaicism. It would be like a Christian fundamentalist wedded to the King James Bible who insisted on using the word "charity" to mean a form of selfless love, with the Latin word caritas in mind, rather than in its contemporary meaning of "philanthropy."
The other possibility is that Bin Laden has lived most of the past 25 years in Persian, Pushtu and Urdu-speaking environments and that he occasionally lapses into non-standard usages. In Hindi-Urdu, I noticed that one meaning of vilayat is "the metropole." At least in past generations, people going from British India to the UK said they were going to "vilayat." More important, there is some evidence for fundamentalist Muslims using the word "wilayah" or "walayah" to mean "country." The Pakistani radical group Hizb al-Tahrir locates itself in "Walayah Pakistan", i.e., the country of Pakistan.
I think archaicism is a more likely explanation than what linguists call "interference" from other languages for Bin Laden's diction here. But I am quite sure for the reasons of logic given above that he means "government" by the word, not state as in province, in this speech.
MEMRI was founded by a retired Israeli colonel from military intelligence, and co-run by Meyrav Wurmser, wife of David Wurmser. David Wurmser is close to the Likud Party in Israel and served in Douglas Feith's "Office of Special Plans" in the Pentagon, where he helped manufacture the case that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and was linked to al-Qaeda. David Wurmser, who wants to get up American wars against both Iran and Syria, then moved over to Vice President Dick Cheney's rump national security team.
MEMRI is funded to the tune of $60 million a year by someone, and is a sophisticated anti-Arab propaganda machine. The organization cleverly cherry-picks the vast Arabic press, which serves 300 million people, for the most extreme and objectionable articles and editorials. It carefully does not translate the moderate articles. I have looked at newspapers that ran both tolerant and extremist opinion pieces on the same day, and checked MEMRI, to find that only the extremist one showed up. It would sort of be as though al-Jazeera published translations of Ann Coulter, Bill O'Reilly, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, and Jerry Falwell on Islam and the Middle East, but never published opinion piences on the subject by William Beeman or Dick Bulliet.
MEMRI is enormously popular with strong Jewish nationalists in the United States, who often subscribe to it by email, and are being given an unbalanced view of the region as a result. In some instances the translations are not very good, but the main objection is the selectiveness of the material. MEMRI is one of a number of public relations campaigns essentially on behalf of the far rightwing Likud Party in Israel that tries to shape American perceptions of Muslims and the Middle East in a negative direction. Think tanks like the "Hudson Institute" are another (it is run by . . . Meyrav Wurmser). The Benador talent agency, which books a lot of talking heads on US television, is another. (Google it). |
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| To: Michael Watkins who wrote (150741) | 11/2/2004 11:23:29 PM | | From: Keith Feral | | | | | Nope. Bush has already won FL & OH. CNN won't score the results. Looks like MI and MN have turned soft on Bush in favor of Kerry. IA has been consistently in favor of Kerry too. WI, OH, FL, and the rest of the mountain states are overwhelmingly in favor of Bush. |
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| To: Keith Feral who wrote (150743) | 11/2/2004 11:30:57 PM | | From: George Statham | | | | Bush certainly could win Ohio but there are alot of votes in the rust belt still to be counted.
If Kerry's margin in Cleveland (Cuyahoga county) holds, that could close the distance considerably. Interestingly, Cinncy & Columbus are very close, rural areas for Bush and industrial areas for Kerry.
Currenty, 224k to 130k for Kerry with 52% reported in Cuyahoga.
cnn.com |
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| To: Michael Watkins who wrote (150742) | 11/2/2004 11:39:41 PM | | From: Nadine Carroll | | | | It carefully does not translate the moderate articles.
That is quite untrue as you would know if you ever read MEMRI, instead of merely hunting for Arab opinion of it. They routinely publish both the bad and the good. Eg, Articles praising The Protocols of the Elders of Zion (not hard to find at all! and in Al Ahram and other MAJOR newspapers!) AND articles written by liberal, moderate Arabs.
For example, if you look at MEMRI right now, one of their two headlined articles is:
Progressive Columnist: 'Bin Laden's Tape is a Tape of Capitulation and Bankruptcy'
Progressive columnist Dr. Mamoun Fandy wrote an article in the Egyptian daily Al-Ahram titled 'Bin Laden Votes for John Kerry: A Tape of Admission, Voting and Capitulation.' The following are excerpts from the article: [1]
memri.org
A moderate, progressive article running in Al Ahram. Not cherry picked to make Arabs look bad at all.
The sad fact for the Arabs is that if you simply read the headlines in their own English language papers, eg. Al Ahram or the Arab News, you read an enormous amount of conspiracy theory and anti-Semitic crap. And that's what they publish in English! (to be fair, Jordan Times and Beirut Daily Star are considerably better). It makes MEMRIs selection look entirely believable. MEMRI footnotes everything, btw. You can see for yourself what sort of paper is publishing it. |
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| To: George Statham who wrote (150744) | 11/2/2004 11:54:42 PM | | From: Keith Feral | | | | | The upper midwest is really starting to look like a dogfight. WI, MI, and IA are all neck in neck with Kerry leading 51 to 48. MN looks like Kerry will walk away now that he has a 9 point lead. Maybe I should have taken heed to Michael's warnings. <g> |
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