| To: Neocon who wrote (150288) | 11/1/2004 4:19:11 PM | | From: GST | | | | | Bush is responsible for the policy/mess in Iraq. He decided to throw his lot in with the neocons. They took advantage of events (9/11) to push their agenda and now we have to decide how to clean up the mess they made -- and it is a tragic mess with the numbers of civilian casualties soaring. Talking about Clinton is a ruse, and alleging that Clinton's policy was close to the policy adopted by Bush is simply false. |
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| To: FaultLine who wrote (150289) | 11/1/2004 4:19:49 PM | | From: GST | | | | | ok -- edit: The estimates of civilian dead are soaring. I think we should, as part of the discussion, always keep in mind that what see as an intellectual pursuit for some, as it is for us here, is a life and death matter for tens of thousands of people someplace else. |
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| To: Neocon who wrote (150290) | 11/1/2004 4:30:38 PM | | From: Jim Willie CB | | | | wrong again, take a look at statistics textbook
for instance
48% Bushy poll results with +/- 3% margin of error
at 95% confidence
it means
the Probability is 95% that the true Bushy pctage in the entire population lies between 45% and 51%
for instance
a 48% Bushy lead over 47% Kerry with same margin of error
at 95% confidence
3% margin of error individually means 4.24% margin of error for the difference
it means
the Probability is 95% that the true Bushy lead in pctage terms in the entire population lies between 1% - 4.24% and 1% + 4.24%
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BUSHY FROM TWO POLL RESULTS HAS MARGIN OF ERROR THE SAME AS FROM ONE POLL ON THE BUSHY KERRY DIFFERENCE
when each poll has the same margin of error
that is why only CNN/Gallup versus American Research versus New York Times should be only a couple points apart typically
one poll in 20 should have differences over 4.24% when margin of error is in the 3% range
instead, we see at least one poll way more than 4% different when only 5-6 polls are cited
this is a routine occurrence, and just plain exposes the bias of the polls
MAKE SENSE ???
I have found not one in ten analyst professionals who get it right
so dont feel bad
my job in corporations and consulting firms has been to inform their analysts what the heck it means
the conflict usually invokes laughter
the common quote I have heard has been...
"it has been so long since I studied that stuff, and I have forgotten almost everything I learned"
/ jim
p.s. hey, Wachovia cuts 4300 jobs
the economy is improving
down is up
black is white
this USGovt has done more to destroy truth than any in modern history |
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| To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (150294) | 11/1/2004 4:38:23 PM | | From: Neocon | | | | | I thought that was more or less what I said, but no matter. I never studied statistics. I just picked up a few concepts along the way, so I am not too worried about it. Getting a better handle on it is always worthwhile, of course. |
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| To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (150229) | 11/1/2004 4:39:09 PM | | From: Keith Feral | | | | I do not accept the fact that the Iraqi military cannot contain the terrorists in their country. With our support, Iraq is pulling itself together. Following the election, we will see the Iraqi military move to complete lockdowns on the terrorist networks left in Fallujah.
The safe havens exist in Iraq because Islamic leaders have been supporting the terrorists. That support does not exist in Iraq anymore. The Islamic leaders must become vigilent about their religious fanatics from killing Islamic outsiders.
I don't think the US military is quite as stretched as you might assume. I don't think a draft would be necessary for the diminishing role of US support in Iraq once they get past their own elections. In fact, I think that the progress Bush and Cheney provided within Iraq gives Kerry a good chance of success in post election Iraq.
I limit the scope of my concerns to the next set of problems before us. What if there are no more dangerous terror networks left in Iraq once we get past Fallujah? What if the Iraqi people decide they will no longer tolerate the presence of suicide bombers in their neighborhoods and turn them into the police? The terrorists are all waving red flags to call attention to themselves. Once identified, it doesn't take that long to send in the Iraqi military to round up the terrorists. |
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