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   Strategies & Market TrendsThe Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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From: Les H1/23/2007 11:23:14 PM
of 306845
 
Loan deals on shaky grounds

sptimes.com

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From: saveslivesbyday1/24/2007 12:08:34 AM
of 306845
 
Best example of "engineered earnings" yet - CTX beats estimate for Current QTR

Last Tuesday's news: "Centex said the writedowns will send it to a steep loss: $2 per share from continuing operations. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial are looking for a loss of 70 cents per share on revenue of $3.09 billion..."

Today's news: CTX said for the quarter ended Dec. 31 it saw a loss of $235.4 million from continuing operations, or $1.96 a share .. total revenue was $3.28 billion .... Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had been forecasting, on average, a quarterly loss of $2 a share on revenue of $3.12 billion" (since this past weekend, that is)

WOW - They went from profit of .81 1 week ago, to loss of 2.00 a few days ago, and can you believe it, how incredible, they beat the analysts' estimates by .04 per share! Wow, those Thomson analysts' sound like they're right on the ball!

From Yahoo:

EPS Trends Current Qtr

Current Est -2.00
7 Days Ago 0.81
30 Days Ago 0.82
60 Days Ago 0.83
90 Days Ago 1.01

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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (70598)1/24/2007 1:06:41 AM
From: mishedlo
of 306845
 
Uhhh trust me, I don't need to go onto Google to do research on copper.

The why are you wasting my time asking me why its called Dr. Copper?

Mish

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To: saveslivesbyday who wrote (70620)1/24/2007 6:13:56 AM
From: saveslivesbyday
of 306845
 
Anyone good with math? What is PE for CTX now?

With earnings of $0.25 in 2007 and share price of $54.10?

And that $0.25 is their estimate today ....

Can somebody convince me why this stock should be valued as a "growth stock," based on some hypothetical expectation that there will be a turnaround in the industry and markedly improved earnings in the next 2-3 years?

I don't have a position right now, and I'm honestly interested if anyone can rationalize or justify the current stock price.

I'm not sure how long these stocks can trade in thin air, last year it took until a general market selloff occurred for the stocks to correct.

Saves

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From: Paul Kern1/24/2007 7:03:17 AM
of 306845
 
*DJ US MBA Market Index Falls 8.4% To 611.3 From 667.2

*DJ US MBA Purchase Index Falls 8.4% To 402.7 From 439.7

*DJ US MBA Refinancing Index Falls 9.6% To 1848.8 From 2045.8

DJ US MBA Mortgage Survey Snapshot

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Following is data from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America's weekly mortgage application survey, released Wednesday.

              Seasonally Unadjusted        Seasonally Adjusted 
   Week  :   Market  Purchase   Refi     Market  Purchase   Refi 
  Ending :   Index    Index    Index     Index    Index    Index 
 01/19/07    567.4    347.3    1848.8    611.3    402.7    1848.8 
 01/12/07    601.8    353.6    2045.8    667.2    439.7    2045.8 
 01/05/07    466.8    282.6    1539.0    671.1    472.8    1923.8 
 12/29/06    350.5    213.4    1148.3    575.6    406.9    1640.4 
 12/22/06    482.6    289.8    1604.6    555.8    390.2    1604.6 
 12/15/06    567.9    327.3    1968.8    647.6    436.5    1968.8 
 12/08/06    642.4    356.8    2304.4    721.2    463.8    2304.4 
 12/01/06    582.8    341.1    1989.7    647.6    426.6    1989.7 
 11/24/06    383.3    238.8    1224.7    599.0    406.7    1749.6 
 11/17/06    584.0    351.9    1935.3    623.6    401.4    1935.3 
 11/10/06    555.8    338.6    1820.0    647.5    412.9    2022.2 
 11/03/06    601.5    378.8    1897.9    620.9    402.2    1897.9 
 10/27/06    557.0    359.1    1709.2    570.8    375.6    1709.2 
 10/20/06    575.9    367.2    1790.4    588.6    382.4    1790.4 
 

DJ US MBA Mortgage Survey Table Of Seasonally Adjusted Data 

 
Seasonally Adjusted data for week ending 1/19/07 
 
Composite Index           Current  Prev Week  % Change  4 Wks Ago  Year Ago 
Market                     611.3     667.2      -8.4      555.8     660.5 
Purchase                   402.7     439.7      -8.4      390.2     473.7 
Refi                      1848.8    2045.8      -9.6     1604.6    1773.9 
Fixed-Rate                 511.1     551.2      -7.3      448.1     488.5 
ARM                       2715.8    3102.2     -12.5     2815.9    4268.2 
 
Conventional Market       Current  Prev Week  % Change  4 Wks Ago  Year Ago 
Total                      910.9     993.2      -8.3      826.1     982.6 
Purchase                   629.9     685.1      -8.1      607.2     743.9 
Refi                      2078.1    2305.2      -9.9     1808.9    1980.9 
Fixed-Rate                 758.1     815.7      -7.1      661.8     716.3 
ARM                       4044.6    4633.9     -12.7     4194.8    6444.7 
 
Government Market         Current  Prev Week  % Change  4 Wks Ago  Year Ago 
Total                      111.9     123.8      -9.6      105.4     123.4 
Purchase                    78.0      89.0     -12.4       80.1      87.5 
Refi                       638.1     676.4      -5.7      525.8     682.1 
Fixed-Rate                  99.7     110.9     -10.1       92.6     109.0 
ARM                        378.5     405.3      -6.6      386.9     438.7 
 
 

DJ US MBA Mortgage Survey Table Of Unadjusted Data 

 
Unadjusted data for week ending 1/19/07 
 
Composite Index           Current  Prev Week  % Change  4 Wks Ago  Year Ago 
Market                     567.4     601.8      -5.7      482.6     546.6 
Purchase                   347.3     353.6      -1.8      289.8     366.3 
Refi                      1848.8    2045.8      -9.6     1604.6    1596.5 
Fixed-Rate                 474.4     497.1      -4.6      389.1     404.2 
ARM                       2520.7    2797.8      -9.9     2444.8    3532.3 
 
Conventional Market       Current  Prev Week  % Change  4 Wks Ago  Year Ago 
Total                      846.3     897.4      -5.7      719.1     813.7 
Purchase                   543.3     551.1      -1.4      451.0     575.3 
Refi                      2078.1    2305.2      -9.9     1808.9    1782.8 
Fixed-Rate                 704.4     737.0      -4.4      576.1     593.2 
ARM                       3757.9    4186.9     -10.2     3651.5    5337.0 
 
Government Market         Current  Prev Week  % Change  4 Wks Ago  Year Ago 
Total                      102.4     108.8      -5.9       88.2     101.3 
Purchase                    67.2      71.6      -6.1       59.5      67.7 
Refi                       638.1     676.4      -5.7      525.8     613.9 
Fixed-Rate                  91.2      97.5      -6.5       77.5      89.5 
ARM                        346.4     356.3      -2.8      323.8     360.0 

DJ US MBA Mortgage Survey Table Of Comparisons 

 
                  Percent Change In            Percent Change 
                 No. Of Applications          In Dollar Value            Avg 
             Week Ago  4Wks Ago  Yr Ago   Week Ago  4Wks Ago  Yr Ago    Loan 
                                                                       ($000) 
Total          -5.7     17.6       3.8      -6.9     16.6       8.8     243.1 
 Purchase      -1.8     19.8      -5.2      -0.7     22.8      -2.8     234.9 
 Refi          -9.6     15.2      15.8     -12.5     10.9      23.8     252.1 
 Fixed-Rate    -4.6     21.9      17.4      -3.8     25.7      31.0     210.1 
 ARM           -9.9      3.1     -28.6     -13.2      0.5     -21.0     373.2 
 
 
Conventional   -5.7     17.7       4.0      -7.0     16.6       8.8     250.5 
 Purchase      -1.4     20.5      -5.6      -0.5     23.1      -3.4     242.3 
 Refi          -9.8     14.9      16.6     -12.6     10.7      24.3     259.3 
 Fixed-Rate    -4.4     22.3      18.7      -3.7     26.2      32.4     216.6 
 ARM          -10.2      2.9     -29.6     -13.5     -0.1     -21.8     380.9 
 
 
Government     -5.9     16.0       1.1      -5.0     17.7       9.5     141.1 
 Purchase      -6.0     13.0      -0.6      -3.9     16.7      10.9     150.3 
 Refi          -5.7     21.3       3.9      -7.2     19.8       6.9     126.3 
 Fixed-Rate    -6.4     17.8       2.0      -5.4     15.3       7.0     126.4 
 ARM           -2.8      7.0      -3.8      -3.9     26.2      18.2     225.7 
 
 

DJ US MBA Mortgage Survey Table Of Current Interest Rates 

 
                           Change in Contract Rate (bps) 
                   Effective  Total   Contract     1 Week   4 Weeks  1 Year 
                     Rate     Points    Rate        Ago       Ago     Ago 
30-Year Fixed        6.41     0.97      6.22          4       10       18 
15-Year Fixed        6.19     1.02      5.93          1       10       27 
7-Year Balloon       6.48     1.22      6.17          8       -2       35 
5-Year Balloon       7.15     1.29      6.83          0        4       71 
ARM, 1-Yr Tsy        6.12     0.81      5.91          7        4       48 
FHA 203 (b)          6.49     1.00      6.32          5       11       70 
All rates except FHA 203(b) are for 80% loan-to-value mortgage.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-24-07 0700ET

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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To: Paul Kern who wrote (70623)1/24/2007 8:02:38 AM
From: Think4Yourself
of 306845
 
That doesn't bode well for spring sellers counting on a recovery. No increase of buyers waiting in the wings. Looks like the improving trend was just a new year's surge that has petered out.

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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (70607)1/24/2007 8:08:17 AM
From: ChanceIs
of 306845
 
>>>That article said "Loss from continuing operations was $1.96 per diluted share".<<<

I think you are referring to the snip below:
_________________________________________________________

Home building reported an operating loss of $292 million for the quarter, after the write off of $138 million of option deposits and land pre-acquisition costs and $297 million of land valuation adjustments, including $97 million from joint ventures. Housing operating earnings (housing revenues less housing cost of sales and SG&A) were $76 million, driven lower by a 12% decrease in closings to 8,360 homes and increased sales incentives. The margin from housing operations was 3.0% in this year's third quarter. The home building operating margin for the quarter, as reported, was a negative 11.3%, primarily a result of the land valuation adjustments.
_______________________________________________________

The CEO is including $138 and $97 million of option and land impairment in the operational data. In my mind these items hardly belong in the operating data. Rather they would gain/loss from investing activities over in the "Cash Flow" page of the accounting presentation. He then goes on to say that the operating earnings were $76 million. Its really a matter of symantics, and I think this guy is employing very uncommon usage.

Again I puzzle. These companies all grew their profits and their P/Es. They are taking impairments/writeoffs/writedowns. The Street cheers because they are getting the bad news out.

I wonder how they expect to grow in the future or get back to where they were. Those option losses are just that - losses to equity. How will they pay for future options/land acquisitions. Not with the premiums they previously paid to the current landowners. Not with the money they paid to buy back shares - the former shareholders have that now. Of course they could always issue new shares. How about with debt??? Some took on debt to buy the shares. Against what will the debt be issued??? Not the elapsed option equity, for sure.

Of course all this depends upon the financial structure of each corporation. I think that the general point holds. There is also the notion that both fixed and variable costs can be scaled back. After a while, the core fixed costs can't be shrunk any lower - you know - the CEO's salary. Are we near that point??? I have no idea.

I think a lot of analysts - Cramer - are looking at the chart, and saying these companies are all worth what they were worth back in July 2005. Now that we have had our correction, we will go right back to those levels.

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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (70624)1/24/2007 8:42:48 AM
From: Paul Kern
of 306845
 
That doesn't bode well for spring sellers counting on a recovery. No increase of buyers waiting in the wings. Looks like the improving trend was just a new year's surge that has petered out.

Perhaps, CR, could post an updated chart for the purchase index with the four and 12 week MAs to smooth out some of herky-jerky action?

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To: bentway who wrote (70612)1/24/2007 9:01:50 AM
From: damainman
of 306845
 
That is as pessimistic article as I have read from Juback, usually he is a pretty middle of the road guy. Next thing you know he'll be spewing conspiracy theories.

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To: KyrosL who wrote (70538)1/24/2007 9:16:52 AM
From: TH
of 306845
 
Kyrosl,

Good luck with your short.

Of course Elroy has my full attention with his comment about PHM and LEN.

GT
TH

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