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   Strategies & Market TrendsThe Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (28329)3/19/2005 12:07:19 AM
From: John Vosilla
of 306842
Thanks for refreshing my memory. Many of the Texas markets are unusual in that they have record levels of new home sales, low unemployment and low months inventory levels yet are at record foreclosure levels. I wonder if that is the future for many fast growth sunbelt markets that dominate new home sales.

I was astounded to find on one of your links that Phoenix had almost 5 times as many new homes sold last year versus the 1989 top. The population increase of 66% only explains a small part of it.

Are you aware of any national stats on number of months inventory? I tried to google and I just get more of the same stats on Texas again.

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To: mishedlo who wrote (28356)3/19/2005 12:23:04 AM
From: Amy J
of 306842
More spending is needed on innovation.

For starters, why are we still doing blood tests rather than using scan devices? Why are we so far behind Korea in Stem Cell? Why are there amnios rather than taking a simple blood test? The list goes on...

Greenspan has the system hooked on real estate.

What has the real estate industry ever invented?

Amy J

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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (28355)3/19/2005 12:28:03 AM
From: 10K a day
of 306842
RE:"When you die, you're out."

better than 3 strikes!

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (28357)3/19/2005 12:43:02 AM
From: CalculatedRisk
of 306842
Go to this site:

Go down to "New Houses Sold and For Sale, by Stage of Const., Median Number of Months for Sale and Seasonal Factors"

You get your choice of Monthly and Annual data (PDF files).


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To: Amy J who wrote (28358)3/19/2005 1:10:19 AM
From: mishedlo
of 306842
I believe you are describing R&D but nothing says it has to happen here.

The US does not have a monopoly on brainpower.
In fact, given the idiot over half the population voted for I waould say we are in dire need of education.


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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (28341)3/19/2005 6:50:43 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön
of 306842
Outsourcing Innovation...And Everything Else
America's Has-Been Economy
March 16, 2005

A country cannot be a superpower without a high tech economy, and America's high tech economy is eroding as I write.

The erosion began when US corporations outsourced manufacturing. Today many US companies are little more than a brand name selling goods made in Asia.

Corporate outsourcers and their apologists presented the loss of manufacturing capability as a positive development. Manufacturing, they said, was the "old economy," whose loss to Asia ensured Americans lower consumer prices and greater shareholder returns. The American future was in the "new economy" of high tech knowledge jobs.

This assertion became an article of faith. Few considered how a country could maintain a technological lead when it did not manufacture.

So far in the 21st century there is scant sign of the American "new economy." The promised knowledge-based jobs have not appeared. To the contrary, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a net loss of 221,000 jobs in six major engineering job classifications.

Today many computer, electrical and electronics engineers, who were well paid at the end of the 20th century, are unemployed and cannot find work. A country that doesn't manufacture doesn't need as many engineers, and much of the work that remains is being outsourced or filled with cheaper foreigners brought into the country on H-lb and L-1 work visas.

Confronted with inconvenient facts, outsourcing's apologists moved to the next level of fantasy. Many technical and engineering jobs, they said, have become "commodity jobs," routine work that can be performed cheaper offshore. America will stay in the lead, they promised, because it will keep the research and development work and be responsible for design and innovation.

Alas, now it is design and innovation that are being outsourced. Business Week reports ("Outsourcing Innovation," March 21) that the pledge of First World corporations to keep research and development in-house "is now passé."

Corporations such as Dell, Motorola, and Philips, which are regarded as manufacturers based in proprietary design and core intellectual property originating in R&D departments, now put their brand names on complete products that are designed, engineered, and manufactured in Asia by "original-design manufacturers" (ODM).

Business Week reports that practically overnight large percentages of cell phones, notebook PCs, digital cameras, MP3 players, and personal digital assistants are produced by original-design manufacturers. Business Week quotes an executive of a Taiwanese ODM: "Customers used to participate in design two or three years back. But starting last year, many just take our product."

Another offshore ODM executive says: "What has changed is that more customers need us to design the whole product. It's now difficult to get good ideas from our customers. We have to innovate ourselves." Another says: "We know this kind of product category a lot better than our customers do. We have the capability to integrate all the latest technologies." The customers are America's premier high tech names.

The design and engineering teams of Asian ODMs are expanding rapidly, while those of major US corporations are shrinking. Business Week reports that R&D budgets at such technology companies as Hewlett Packard, Cisco, Motorola, Lucent Technologies, Ericsson, and Nokia are being scaled back.

Outsourcing is rapidly converting US corporations into a brand name with a sales force selling foreign designed, engineered, and manufactured goods. Whether or not they realize it, US corporations have written off the US consumer market. People who do not participate in the innovation, design, engineering and manufacture of the products that they consume lack the incomes to support the sales infrastructure of the job diverse "old economy."

"Free market" economists and US politicians are blind to the rapid transformation of America into a third world economy, but college bound American students and heads of engineering schools are acutely aware of declining career opportunities and enrollments. While "free trade" economists and corporate publicists prattle on about America's glorious future, heads of prestigious engineering schools ponder the future of engineering education in America.

Once US firms complete their loss of proprietary architecture, how much intrinsic value resides in a brand name? What is to keep the all-powerful ODMs from undercutting the American brand names?

The outsourcing of manufacturing, design and innovation has dire consequences for US higher education. The advantages of a college degree are erased when the only source of employment is domestic nontradable services.

According to the Los Angeles Times (March 11), the percentage of college graduates among the long-term chronically unemployed has risen sharply in the 21st century. The US Department of Labor reported in March that 373,000 discouraged college graduates dropped out of the labor force in February--a far higher number than the number of new jobs created.

The disappearing US economy can also be seen in the exploding trade deficit. As more employment is shifted offshore, goods and services formerly produced domestically become imports. Nothink economists and Bush administration officials claim that America's increasing dependence on imported goods and services is evidence of the strength of the US economy and its role as engine of global growth.

This claim ignores that the US is paying for its outsourced goods and services by transferring its wealth and future income streams to foreigners. Foreigners have acquired $3.6 trillion of US assets since 1990 as a result of US trade deficits.

Foreigners have a surfeit of dollar assets. For the past three years their increasing unwillingness to acquire more dollars has resulted in a marked decline in the dollar's value in relation to gold and tradable currencies.

Recently the Japanese, Chinese, and Koreans have expressed their concerns. According to Bloomberg (March 10), Japan's unrealized losses on its dollar reserve holdings have reached $109.6 billion.

The Asia Times reported (March 12) that Asian central banks have been reducing their dollar holdings in favor of regional currencies for the past three years. A study by the Bank of International Settlements concluded that the ratio of dollar reserves held in Asia declined from 81% in the third quarter of 2001 to 67% in September 2004. India reduced its dollar holdings from 68% of total reserves to 43%. China reduced its dollar holdings from 83% to 68%.

The US dollar will not be able to maintain its role as world reserve currency when it is being abandoned by that area of the world that is rapidly becoming the manufacturing, engineering and innovation powerhouse.

Misled by propagandistic "free trade" claims, Americans will be at a loss to understand the increasing career frustrations of the college educated. Falling pay and rising prices of foreign made goods will squeeze US living standards as the declining dollar heralds America's descent into a has-been economy.

Meanwhile the Grand Old Party has passed a bankruptcy "reform" that is certain to turn unemployed Americans living on debt and beset with unpayable medical bills into the indentured servants of credit card companies. The steely-faced Bush administration is making certain that Americans will experience to the full their counry's fall.

Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions.

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (28341)3/19/2005 6:57:13 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön
of 306842
Welcome to Banana Republic USA Mar 11
Turning Chinese
So Much for the New Bush Economy
March 10, 2005

The February payroll jobs figures released last Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show a continuation of America's descent into a third world service economy.

The Bush administration cheered the creation of 229,000 private sector jobs (which still leaves Bush with a net private sector job loss during his reign). However, once we look at the details, the joy vanishes: 174,000 of the jobs, or 76% of the total, are in nontradable services.

Administrative and waste services (largely temporary help and employment services) account for 61,000 or 35% of the new service jobs. The remainder are accounted for by construction (30,000), retail trade (30,000), healthcare and social assistance (27,000), and waitresses and bar tenders (27,000).

The US has apparently lost the ability to create high productivity, high value-added jobs in tradable goods and services. The ladders of upward mobility are being dismantled by offshore production for home markets and outsourcing of knowledge jobs.

The BLS reports that the number of employed US technical workers has fallen by 221,000 in six major computer and engineering job classifications during 2000-2004. The largest drops were suffered by computer programmers, followed by electrical and electronics engineers, computer scientists and systems analysts.

So much for the new economy that economists promised would take the place of the lost manufacturing economy.

America's remaining job market is domestic nontradable services. While India and China develop first world job markets, the US labor market takes on the characteristics of a third world work force. Only jobs that cannot be outsourced are growing.

The Bush economy has seen a loss of 2.8 million manufacturing jobs, a rise in the unemployment rate of 1.2 percentage points, and a stagnation in real weekly earnings.

How bad will things have to get before economists realize that outsourced jobs are not being replaced? Indeed, many American companies are ceasing to have any presence in the US except for a sales force.

Cisco's CEO, John Chambers, declared recently: "What we're trying to do is outline an entire strategy of becoming a Chinese company."

Cisco is establishing a new R&D center in Shanghai. The US corporation manufactures $5 billion of products in China where it employes 10,000 people.

That is just one company, and there are many doing the same thing. The result is abandonment of the American work force by American corporations. Little wonder the Bush administration is the first administration in 70 years to have a net loss of private sector jobs.

If one US company or a few move offshore, their profits improve and consumer prices are lower. However, when work in general moves offshore, American lose the incomes associated with the production of the goods they consume. Domestic production is turned into imports, with the result that America draws down its accumulated wealth in order to pay for the imports on which it is dependent.

The dollar's value and status as reserve currency cannot forever stand the trade and budget deficits that are now part and parcel of America's economic policy.

Unless there are major changes soon, America's economic future is a third world work force with a banana democracy's worthless currency.

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From: Micawber3/19/2005 7:07:38 AM
of 306842
O.T. The Real Donald

Trump Hotels’ 4th-quarter loss jumps to $100M.

Reorganization costs a $61.4M. hit for company

The loss comes as little surprise for Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts, a company that has failed to post a profit since going public a decade ago...

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (28357)3/19/2005 9:27:07 AM
From: Tradelite
of 306842
re: your question about national stats on number-of-months housing inventory.

Do you mind if I ask why you would even want that figure?

First of all, there is no good way to collect such a figure.

Second, it can't affect your investment bottom line in any way, because all real estate activity is local, based on local economic conditions and other factors.

We would need to have a system of location/local economy-weighted stats to determine why such a figure would be What entity will ever develop this type of measurement system?

Actually, I think NAR publishes some sort of this type of statistic, but of what use is it?

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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (28288)3/19/2005 9:33:31 AM
From: Suma
of 306842
In every new home with thousands being built daily as well as townhouses,condominiums there are Jacuzzi tubs, swimming pools and every imaginable appliance to use water and more water .. Where is it all coming from. The only sensible things are the run off ponds which they call lakes that take care of outside irrigation. It's appalling the waste..

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