|To: Bald Man from Mars who wrote (9)||4/11/2001 12:39:43 AM|
|From: Simon Thornington|
|Yeah, MOT earnings looked pretty bad to me... revenue/earnings down about 15%, LT debt up $2.2B over 2000, only significantly profitable business being the broadband shite which won't trickle down the pipeline (pardon the pun) for at least another couple of quarters. Goodness knows the carrying cost of the new debt...|
Feeling much better now, but still on guard. Not going to bother doing the charts tonight, I would want to short tons of stuff but I'm already allocated to nearly 65%. Better to get the sleep and see what tomorrow brings.
Played the QQQ calls today, too lightly perhaps... down 3.2%ish on the day, the edge taken off by the quick call trade, much like Thursday. Late day trading didn't take MOT down as far as I'd like, but afterhours trading of listed stuff isn't so popular yet. VIX is down nicely, VXN still stubborn. put/call tells me the fish are hopping out of their panties, but that's not tradable. A sustained bear-market rally is still possible. If tomorrow isn't weak, I'll reduce the short exposure, possibly down to 40%ish. 30% chance of that happening, I figure. More likely, if there is heavy selling, I'm going to jump on the pigs that are still standing on thin ice.
I'm preparing to go 100%+ short, if the cards are in place. This is a really really sweet spot to sell, volume was a little heavy today to be totally sure... gap down, I'm already nicely short... gap up on strength, I will reallocate to reduce... gap up on weakness, I'm all over it like ice cream on a cone. Even open, wait and see...
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