| To: Paul Senior who wrote (99436) | 4/19/2008 9:19:57 AM | | From: profile_14 | | | | | But when you compare it to the others, it is more than double, and then when you look at the third graphic tables I posted Message 24512852 you can see the sequential decelleration in revenues and earnings. That is not a good thing. The Big Daddy is susceptible to a pullback IMO based on valuation. This could happen Monday or not at all until Q3, but it still is and when the market decides to sing that song, well.... |
| | Big Dog's Boom Boom Room | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2) |
|
| From: CommanderCricket | 4/19/2008 10:13:13 AM | | | | | | Wooten wrote this on the CWEI and thought I would pass it on
investorvillage.com
Globally, there is a shortage of diesel fuel. You can dig through the sub reports on diesel imports here:
tonto.eia.doe.gov
And you'll find that both the east coast and west coast are receiving reduced distillate imports.
The west coast is also not getting sufficient gasoline imports.
Then there are the problems with insufficient alkylate additive for summer blend gasoline, but you're probably aware of that.
I suspect there is a bit of manipulation in east coast gasoline prices cause I can't find a strong reason for them to be so high .... unless alkylate is that difficult to come by on the east coast.
If ... and it's not an if, as you can see it in the sub-reports on the distillate imports .... distillate is in short supply, then maybe oil to import is in short supply also? In any case, crude oil imports are down. |
| | Big Dog's Boom Boom Room | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: CommanderCricket | 4/19/2008 10:25:01 AM | | | | | | Iran's president says oil prices too low
Report: Iran's president says oil prices too low
Iran's hard-line president declared that crude oil prices, now above $115 a barrel, are too low, state media reported Saturday.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told an oil and gas exhibition in Tehran on Friday that he thought the commodity still had to "discover its real value," according to the Web site of Iran's state-run television.
.
.
.Ahmadinejad said despite high oil prices, the true value of crude oil, adjusted for inflation, is currently less than what it was in 1980.
"While the price of other commodities have increased, the economic value of the current oil price is even less than 1980," he said.
But some figures suggest that today's crude prices might have surpassed inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.
Ahmadinejad accused Western industrialized nations of "selfishness" in their quest for cheaper oil.
"When they get hold of oil, they assume that oil is a free commodity and belongs to them and has wrongly been placed in other territories. ... This is the spirit of selfishness and arrogance," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying.
biz.yahoo.com |
| | Big Dog's Boom Boom Room | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: profile_14 who wrote (99441) | 4/19/2008 11:14:37 AM | | From: tom pope | | | | Merrill on SLB
Well telegraphed 1Q miss a non-event; Buy
Schlumberger reported 1Q08 operating EPS of $1.05 vs. our $1.12 and consensus of
$1.13. The miss was widely expected given public comments by SLB the last few
weeks. A big q/q decline in WesternGeco multi-client was the biggest delta to our
estimate ($89mm EBIT), but softer margins ex-ME/Asia also factored. Commentary on
growth for 2008+ was notably constructive, pleasing investors looking for a tone
improvement. We also liked the implied message in new stock repo program ($8bn).
Maybe not a “transition year”; `09 growth greater than`08
SLB’s near term and long term view was incrementally more bullish. Chairman & CEO
Andrew Gould backed away from his cautious `08 transition year comments from
4Q07. A 2H08 up tick in NA and added pressure in some international regions due to
production shortfalls have the company seeing solid growth this year. Even better were
comments on `09 growth being above `08. The long term view was also more bullish
with only a negative demand shock (i.e. global recession) or evolutionary switch
toward other fuel sources able to bring the cycle to an end.
Growth remains top line
oriented in our view, as Gould side-stepped the margins “topping-out” question.
North America inflection point in 2H08; `09 looks good
Pricing for NA pumping services is bottoming and could be on an upward path by Y-E.
Inquiries are up and producer spending is set to rise. SLB also noted that other NA
services continue to have modest pricing upside. This is a second half story that aligns
with our bullish view of the NA market. A concern could be SLB’s lower relative
leverage to NA than peers (i.e. HAL, WFT).
Seismic still strong; WesternGeco results to be lumpier
Many questions pertained to the seismic business. We see the issues as just timing
delays. W.Geco is booked through `08 and they are not concerned about capacity
growth being a factor until 2010. Highly profitable multi-client work looks set to surge
again as recent lease sales and new E-octopus surveys contribute in 2H08, recouping
some of the 1Q08 short fall. There are no full year changes to our current estimates |
| | Big Dog's Boom Boom Room | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| From: rz | 4/19/2008 11:14:50 AM | | | | | | Citigroup Posts $5.1 Billion Loss
Ailing Hedge Funds
Infect the Wealth Unit;
Shares Still Gain 4.5%
By DAVID ENRICH
April 19, 2008
When one Citigroup Inc. unit sneezes, another seems to catch a cold.
The phenomenon was on display Friday, as Citigroup reported that first-quarter profit in its wealth-management division, long considered a crown jewel of the financial empire, fell 33%, dragged down by the poor performances of internal hedge funds that were ravaged by turmoil in the credit markets.
The disappointing showing in the wealth-management business -- which includes the Smith Barney retail brokerage and a private bank catering to ultrarich individuals -- illustrates a pitfall of Citigroup's "universal bank" model, in which a diverse array of businesses are supposed to complement each other and yield superior results. Now, it turns out that ailing units can infect each other as well.
Brokers in the wealth-management group had been peddling the hedge funds, run by Citigroup's alternative-investments division, to their clients. When the funds incurred steep losses, the wealth-management group moved to help the investors exit their positions. The bill: $250 million.
The problems in the wealth-management unit were the least of Citigroup's troubles Friday. The company announced a $5.1 billion first-quarter net loss -- on the heels of a $9.8 billion fourth-quarter loss -- precipitated by more than $18 billion in various credit-related hits.
It has been a tough start for Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit. Since taking the job in December, he has been scrambling to replenish the bank's coffers, cleanse its books of toxic assets, and improve its risk-management and efficiency. But progress on those fronts isn't translating into an improved performance.
"We are not happy with our financial results this quarter, although they are not completely unexpected given the assets we hold," Mr. Pandit said Friday on a conference call.
Profits in all four of Citigroup's main business lines fell sharply from a year ago, and executives warned that the tough times are likely to drag into next year. Ratings firms put Citigroup's debt on watch for downgrades, but the company's shares rose 4.5%, or $1.08, to $25.11 in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading, as investors expressed relief the numbers weren't worse.
Citigroup's investment bank endured about $12 billion in write-downs on its exposure to various parts of the credit markets, bringing the division's total losses to about $32 billion since last summer. More hits are possible.
The global consumer group suffered from $6 billion in costs arising from troubled mortgages, home-equity lines, credit cards and auto loans. Losses may "extend beyond where we've seen historical levels go," said Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden. "We are in uncharted territory."
That is among the starkest warnings sounded this week by big banks that reported first-quarter results. It suggests the industry may continue to be bogged down by losses, as the crisis that originated with subprime mortgages afflicts other types of consumer loans.
And despite stockpiling more than $30 billion in capital in recent months, and repeated assurances from executives that Citigroup has a plethora of capital, Mr. Crittenden said in an interview he couldn't rule out the possibilities that Citigroup will raise more money or that the board will further cut the firm's dividend.
Even the Citigroup hedge fund co-founded by Mr. Pandit struggled, leading Citigroup to record a $202 million write-down.
Led by Sallie Krawcheck, the wealth-management unit has been highly profitable, fast-growing and seemingly immune to the woes afflicting other parts of the company. In recent speeches to employees, Mr. Pandit has hailed the unit as one of Citi's finest.
In the first quarter, though, the division's profit tumbled to $299 million from $448 million a year ago and $523 million in the fourth quarter.
The problems stemmed in part from choppy stock markets, which tend to keep retail-brokerage customers on the sidelines. Further depressing results, some of the hedge funds that Smith Barney and the private bank offer to clients racked up losses.
In three families of hedge funds, Citigroup this year has either had to inject its own capital to stabilize the funds or barred investors from withdrawing their money. All three fund groups have struggled to stay afloat due to their overexposure to the credit markets.
Losses in those funds infuriated Citigroup brokers, who have been bombarding Ms. Krawcheck and Edward Kelly, the new head of Citigroup's alternative-investments unit, with angry missives.
Seeking to pacify clients, Ms. Krawcheck and Mr. Kelly have started waiving fees on some funds. The wealth group also set aside $250 million in the first quarter to help clients liquidate their positions in Citigroup's Falcon fund group, which was burned by big bets on some of the hardest-hit areas of the credit markets.
Longer-lasting damage may lie ahead. People inside the wealth-management unit said they expect the debacle to cost them some of their most lucrative clients. They also worry that frustrated financial advisers may bolt.
Mr. Crittenden said in the interview that Citigroup is working with the company's financial advisers to help contain fallout.
Adding to Citigroup's hedge-fund woes, the company on Friday marked down by $202 million the value of Mr. Pandit's Old Lane fund. Citigroup shelled out more than $800 million for Old Lane last year, but the fund, which launched in 2006, has generated lackluster returns. |
| | Big Dog's Boom Boom Room | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| From: tom pope | 4/19/2008 11:19:55 AM | | | | | | ML on LINE - pretty optimistic - I sold after the announcement, thinking of re entering at some time but I'm cautious short term on the sector in line with just about everybody else here. I even put in a recommendation on a Greenie post!
>>Appalachia divestiture neutral 2008; accretive 2009
We are adjusting our estimates for a reduction of $550 mn in Linn’s credit facility from
the Appalachian divestiture. Our 2008 EPU remains unchanged at $1.65. Our 2009
EPU increases to $1.41 from $1.30. 2008e distribution coverage falls slightly to 1.04x
from 1.05x, but rises to 1.00x in 2009 from 0.95x. Distributable cash flow per unit
decreases to $2.63 from $2.65 in 2008 but increases to $2.52 from $2.45 in 2009.
$32 NAV estimate
Factoring in the impact of the divestiture and a new probable reserve estimate of 1.3
Tcfe, which Linn provided extensive support for during its analyst day, our NAV
increases to $32 from $27. This reflects a 10% WACC and an $8/MMBtu;$70/Bbl long
term benchmark price forecast. We view this as an upside case for valuation
purposes, which the company can achieve through execution on its production and
cost objectives.
3-4% organic growth and 11% yield attractive combination
Linn laid out a strong case that it can achieve 3-4% organic production growth for the
next 5-10 years based on captured inventory. Additionally, given its use of puts to
hedge, distributions could benefit significantly if current prices persist. Now that the
company has greater financial strength ($700 mn in dry powder on credit facility) it can
also pursue opportunistic acquisitions. We believe, however, that it would be better
served validating its organic growth model and further improving its coverage ratios.
Yield discount still too wide relative to peers
Linn trades at a 11.0% 2009e distributable cash flow yield versus 10.2% for the peers
(based on $8.50/MMBtu;$90/Bbl benchmark prices). Our $25 price objective equates
to a 10% yield. We believe the improvement in distribution coverage, enhanced
financial strength, and estimate uplift from the Appalachia divestiture warrants it trade
at least in line with the peers. Reiterate Buy Rating and $25 price objective. |
| | Big Dog's Boom Boom Room | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: profile_14 who wrote (99441) | 4/19/2008 12:48:27 PM | | From: Paul Senior | | | | SLB. Profile 14, my point again is that the stock seems inexpensive to me when I look at current cash flow/sh. and estimated cashflow/sh compared to its past cash flow metric.
SLB is SLB...the premier and dominant company in its arena. Whether it trades at double cash/flow per share compared to competitors is only relevant imo if that is an unusual occurrence.
I see on the chart where earnings drop once in a while (sequential quarter). They also come back.
If you are saying that SLB at current price is a hold or avoid or a short, based on the way you look at this stock/company, that's fine with me. Your assessment could prove true in coming days/months. Your opinion seems consistent over time: from what I see, there's no point in the past few years where you ever posted that you were buying SLB. For me, I'm only sorry I didn't buy earlier and more and didn't hold on through the stock's rise. With the few shares I recently have bought, I am satisfied to hold on. |
| | Big Dog's Boom Boom Room | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (2) |
|
| From: Dennis Roth | 4/19/2008 4:18:41 PM | | | | | | Qatar Says China to Receive Gas Diverted From U.S. and Europe
bloomberg.com
By Ayesha Daya and Anthony DiPaola
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Qatar, the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas, is diverting supplies destined for the U.S. and Europe to China because the Asian country pays more, Qatar's oil minister said today.
A supply agreement this month between Qatar and China ``is a diversion'' from Europe and the U.S., ``not new production,'' Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah told reporters as he arrived in Rome for the International Energy Forum. ``We are not in the charity business. Whoever will give me the best price, I will follow him.''
PetroChina Co. and China National Offshore Oil Corp., the nation's biggest owners of liquefied natural gas terminals, signed accords with Qatar on April 10 to import the fuel as early as 2009.
Qatar refused to supply Israel with the gas, known as LNG, during a meeting with Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni on April 15 because it doesn't have sufficient extra supply, Attiyah said.
``I met her and I told her we are not capable of selling gas to Israel. We are sold out,'' he said.
Qatar, which holds the world's third-largest gas reserves after Russia and Iran, is producing 31 million tons of LNG a year. Annual output will rise to 77 million tons a year by 2010.
To contact the reporters on this story: Ayesha Daya in Rome at adaya1@bloomberg.net; Anthony DiPaola in Rome at adipaola@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 19, 2008 11:41 EDT |
| | Big Dog's Boom Boom Room | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last Read |
|
| To: Paul Senior who wrote (99447) | 4/19/2008 4:35:58 PM | | From: profile_14 | | | | Paul Senior,
I have been long Canadian companies such as ECA and CNQ, U.S. companies APA and APC, and land drillers PTEN and NBR, and even RDC, GSF, and ESV in the past. Currently the only long oil name I hold is PBR from a price of $14 of many years back.
Right now I am short OIH via puts and long DUG. I have never owned SLB and believe the mid- to shallow-water jackup drillers are facing a barrage of pressure from oncoming equipment this fall that will exacerbate the day rate situation for them beyond what the "street" recognizes today. Of course, the OIH could be 100 points higher by then too, along with SLB. If it has always traded at a premium, as you say, there is likely a solid reason behind it such as leadership and niche, position within segment, etc.
What I find peculiar is the rate of change in the earnings and revenues (the second derivative) of the curve which is flattening out. Once you have flat earnings, then the PEG explodes, making that premium unjustifiable subsequently.
You should do well with your purchase, but I tend to trade in and out too frequently, so please take that into consideration. My comments recently have been in light of the USD ramp and the massive move in the ETF. I am looking for a reversion to the mean.
Best regards, |
| | Big Dog's Boom Boom Room | Stock Discussion ForumsShare | RecommendKeepReplyMark as Last ReadRead Replies (1) |
|
| |
