To: grinder965 who wrote (26128) | 10/4/2003 3:43:36 PM | From: chowder | | | Grinder,
RRI is in the price range that has the largest amount of overhead supply for those who bought last May when the price was rising. The price drop was so quick in June, most of those buyers froze as the price zipped right on down past their entry point. A lot of those folks will be glad to get out even as the price comes up to them. The price needs to clear 5.80 to get through this heavy zone of overhead supply.
The second heaviest price range for overhead resistance will be around 6.30 - 6.60
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pc20!b50!i!f][vc60][iut!Lb14!Lg]&pref=G
dabum |
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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (26133) | 10/4/2003 3:57:19 PM | From: chowder | | | >>> The stock appears poised to break out of a one-year trading range and there was significant volume late last week. <<<
Ed,
Most of the technical indicators that I look at confirm your analysis. I have looked at several time frames via the charts and indicators and they all seem to confirm FXEN is on the brink of breaking out to recent highs.
The stock is clearly under accumulation.
I'm going to watch this one in the coming week. Nice find, in my opinion.
stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyiay[pc20!b50!f][vc60][iut!Lb14!Lc20!Lg!Lj[$spx]!Lm12]&pref=G
dabum |
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To: chowder who wrote (26135) | 10/4/2003 4:55:40 PM | From: Ed Ajootian | | | dabum, Nice to hear your comments on FXEN, I figured you would not look at it since it doesn't trade at least 100K shares per day.
I'd like to think that if TA has any accuracy with the higher volume stocks it oughtta have at least some accuracy on the low volume ones.
I realize these companies I've been bringing up recently are weird, but the point I've been trying to make is that there's plenty of opportunity to make money in the oil patch without having to make a concomitant weather bet over the next 6 months. |
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To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (26137) | 10/4/2003 5:47:51 PM | From: chowder | | | Ed,
I change what I look at for the lighter volume stocks. I don't put as much emphasis on the candlestick formations or moving averages. I look more to money flow and buying volume. If these two criteria are on the rise, then lower volume stocks are going to start showing more volume and price will more than likely rise.
Like most things in life, you adjust what you look at, or do, as conditions change. So, I change what I look at in these low volume, low priced stocks.
dabum |
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To: Big Dog who started this subject | 10/4/2003 9:43:53 PM | From: quehubo | | | 5:30pm 10/04/03 UNION EXPECTS NIGERIA STRIKE TO LAST 2 WEEKS-VOA 5:29pm 10/04/03 UNION OFFICIAL TELLS NIGERIANS TO STOCK UP ON FOOD-VOA 5:28pm 10/04/03 NIGERIAN OIL WORKERS PLAN STRIKE STARTING THURSDAY-VOA |
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To: quehubo who wrote (26113) | 10/5/2003 1:25:45 AM | From: energyplay | | | Hi que - after having been through about 4 years or so of investing in NG stocks, it seems that some winters are more certain than others. Headign into late 2000 (September) I was ver ycertain and was loading up.
I don't feel that way this time, and I'm not loading as much.
There will be another TMR, RRI, ROYL , EOG at $25 type situation every few months.
Right now Nickel and INCO (NYSE: N) look more certain to me than North American Natural gas. RRI sure looks good too.
I may buy back heavily into TMR, which has rapidly expanding production and will do well even if gas prices are flat.
I guess I have seen enough opportunites to be less risk taking.... |
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To: excardog who wrote (26130) | 10/5/2003 1:58:40 AM | From: t4texas | | | this is possibly what you are looking for. bls has more data than you want.
the economic news releases at this link put some text before diving into just data.
stats.bls.gov
here may be something you suspect is fishy. fyi it is about the same text each time.
"In September, 1.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals wanted and were available to work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed, how- ever, because they did not actively search for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Of the 1.5 million, 388,000 were discouraged workers--persons who were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them. The number of discouraged workers in September was about the same as a year earlier. The other 1.2 million marginally attached had not searched for work because they were in school or had family responsibilities."
stats.bls.gov
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To: energyplay who wrote (26140) | 10/5/2003 8:57:13 AM | From: quehubo | | | It will be four years for me in Q1. I have learned that sentiment can change very quickly.
What I wonder is what will happen when storage is sitting at 3,200 bcf here in a few weeks and then there still is an extra 3-4 bcfpd of NG available?
Not forcing prices high enough to force switching to #2 oil may be worth 1.5 bcfpd this Winter compared to the last. This will be relatively painless to the market.
But at what price do NGL's get rejected?
At what price does some industrial demand return?
I think the present futures price strip is good for a normal Winter and storage ending at ~1,100 bcf.
With the present supply demand balance it seems only depletion or increased demand (weather/economic) will force RIG counts higher. |
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To: energyplay who wrote (26140) | 10/5/2003 10:35:39 AM | From: jim_p | | | ep,
I feel the same way you do about where we are with NG. Why take a risk on cold weather when if your patient you can wait for another RRI or the winter of 2000 to invest???
I made over 1000% in 2000 betting the farm with margin on the "perfect storm", but I don't think the risk reward is there today.
Jim |
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